January 16-18th: Rolling the dice

[mattie g]

5 hours ago, mattie g said:

I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s white rain, but not as much as I’m looking forward to feet of prime-climo pattern.

Not like I’m some super prognosticator or anything, but I’m sticking to this “call” from earlier today.

[yoda]

I mean i like it... but i cant see more than an inch here.  I hope to be surprised 

[WxUSAF]

Is LWX running off 12z instead of 18z?

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Is LWX running off 12z instead of 18z?

Maybe they have the early access 0z runs 

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Dude every run of everything had me at zero this at least shows some color

The 12z Euro had a tenth more for you than 18z.

[clskinsfan]

This is our chance right here. And it is blossoming some. 

 

[osfan24]

Riding with Ellinwood. He’s conservative usually and his maps are almost always spot on.

[Terpeast]

30/27 currently, mostly clear but not that dry

[T. August]

29/27

[mitchnick]

Latest Srefs

[mitchnick]

Rap and Hrrr are around 1-1.5" at best for those with a shot.

[winter_warlock]

I was kinda surprised they issued a WWA for central md for a couple inches.. They must be thinking.....  Umm I really don't know what they are thinking lol

[winter_warlock]

Was 32.2F here in sparrows point MD just dropped to 31.9F in last 30 minutes

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Latest Srefs

Man...F these f'ing models 

[snowfan]

Really don't see anything supporting the WWA esp west of the bay or the earlier map showing places west of the bay getting 2-4. 

[TSSN+]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Rap and Hrrr are around 1-1.5" at best for those with a shot.

I’m hugging 0z Nam haha smokes us. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’m hugging 0z Nam haha smokes us. 

Yeah you PSU and Mappy should love that one!

[87storms]

7 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Really don't see anything supporting the WWA esp west of the bay or the earlier map showing places west of the bay getting 2-4. 

Looks like it's driven by forcing at 850mb swinging thru.  Probably gonna be frozen, but shorter duration west of 15.  One of those forecasts where mets are put to the test.

[NorthArlington101]

Looking at 00z hi-res guidance… not too late for LWX to cancel those advisories and save face. 

[Terpeast]

0z nam a little better for mby, but temps stay at 33-34 during the heaviest precip. Sounding is (wet) snow, but will have a tough time accumulating towards advisory criteria. 
 

[wxmeddler]

You can accumulate at 35 if it's heavy enough. It'll be slop on the grass and wet pavement but it'll be pretty.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

You can accumulate at 35 if it's heavy enough. It'll be slop on the grass and wet pavement but it'll be pretty.

True, but that means we’re banking on rates to get this to work out for most.

[Alfoman]

We got a bit screwed getting the initial slug of moisture with temps in and around the city. I think the only chance of accumulating snow would be if that precip field expands as the low ramps up - DC rides that line on the 0Z HRRR with temps dropping

[wxmeddler]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

True, but that means we’re banking on rates to get this to work out for most.

We have to pump up the weenies hopes and dreams before nature comes and crushes them... that's what the script says at least. Did you not receive a copy yet?

[ChillinIt]

Nw Cecil County Temp 27.0 1.6 inches of snow today...probably about the same Sunday!

[yoda]

*shrugs*

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
936 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded further to the
south and west to include much of the eastern portions of
central Maryland, all of Northeast Maryland including the city
of Baltimore, Washington D.C. and the I-95 corridor into
southeastern Prince William County in Virginia. A prolonged
period from Sunday night through Tuesday night looks to be very
cold. Wind chill values remain somewhat unchanged and a little
warmer than previously anticipated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary later
  tonight and during the day Sunday. A mix of rain and snow will
  transition to all snow.

- 2) Very cold conditions are expected over the region Monday
  night through Tuesday night, with below normal temperatures
  continuing through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary
later tonight and during the day Sunday. A mix rain and snow
will transition to all snow.

A front bisecting the region will be the focal zone of an area
of low pressure that will develop along it and move toward the
east as the front slides to the south and east. Many locations
will be in the middle to upper 30s in the areas that are
expected to encounter accumulating snow late tonight and Sunday.
As we approach daybreak Sunday morning, these temperatures will
slowly drop a degree every hour or two to reach close to or
below the freezing mark as precipitation begins. A mix of rain
and snow could start between 4am and 6am in eastern Maryland and
eastern Virginia, before the atmosphere cools down evenmore with
falling precipitation. Thus, the cold atmosphere will support
accumulating snowfall through much of the day Sunday.

East of I-95, more precipitation is expected, but temperatures
may be slightly above freezing for a large part of the event,
and precipitation may even be rain for a while. The best
potential for cold air and higher precipitation totals to
overlap appears to be central and northeastern Maryland,
northeastern Virginia. The model trend has been bringing
snowfall farther to the northwest; thus, resulting in the
potential for accumulating snowfall of 1 to 3 inches instead of
a dusting to near an inch. The Winter Weather Advisory previous
issued has been expanded to the west, southwest and south. Much
of central Maryland, far northeast Virginia, Baltimore and
Washington DC has been included. End time for the precipitation
could be pretty early in the day closer to and west of the Blue
Ridge. How long the precipitation lasts closer to the Chesapeake
Bay will depend on the western extent of the second frontal
wave. In any event, dry conditions look likely by mid Sunday
evening. Temperatures from the mid teens to mid 20s are expected
Sunday night, so any residual moisture or slush could refreeze.

 

[CAPE]

I guess when every model has a different flavor you just go with the blend lol

[CAPE]

This really is comical. Imagine if this was an actual real storm. Hopefully not a preview.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

*shrugs*

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
936 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded further to the
south and west to include much of the eastern portions of
central Maryland, all of Northeast Maryland including the city
of Baltimore, Washington D.C. and the I-95 corridor into
southeastern Prince William County in Virginia. A prolonged
period from Sunday night through Tuesday night looks to be very
cold. Wind chill values remain somewhat unchanged and a little
warmer than previously anticipated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary later
  tonight and during the day Sunday. A mix of rain and snow will
  transition to all snow.

- 2) Very cold conditions are expected over the region Monday
  night through Tuesday night, with below normal temperatures
  continuing through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary
later tonight and during the day Sunday. A mix rain and snow
will transition to all snow.

A front bisecting the region will be the focal zone of an area
of low pressure that will develop along it and move toward the
east as the front slides to the south and east. Many locations
will be in the middle to upper 30s in the areas that are
expected to encounter accumulating snow late tonight and Sunday.
As we approach daybreak Sunday morning, these temperatures will
slowly drop a degree every hour or two to reach close to or
below the freezing mark as precipitation begins. A mix of rain
and snow could start between 4am and 6am in eastern Maryland and
eastern Virginia, before the atmosphere cools down evenmore with
falling precipitation. Thus, the cold atmosphere will support
accumulating snowfall through much of the day Sunday.

East of I-95, more precipitation is expected, but temperatures
may be slightly above freezing for a large part of the event,
and precipitation may even be rain for a while. The best
potential for cold air and higher precipitation totals to
overlap appears to be central and northeastern Maryland,
northeastern Virginia. The model trend has been bringing
snowfall farther to the northwest; thus, resulting in the
potential for accumulating snowfall of 1 to 3 inches instead of
a dusting to near an inch. The Winter Weather Advisory previous
issued has been expanded to the west, southwest and south. Much
of central Maryland, far northeast Virginia, Baltimore and
Washington DC has been included. End time for the precipitation
could be pretty early in the day closer to and west of the Blue
Ridge. How long the precipitation lasts closer to the Chesapeake
Bay will depend on the western extent of the second frontal
wave. In any event, dry conditions look likely by mid Sunday
evening. Temperatures from the mid teens to mid 20s are expected
Sunday night, so any residual moisture or slush could refreeze.

 

I guess they just disregarded or didn’t even check the latest models that went warmer and cut back on snow accums. Or maybe they didn’t think the new runs were correct.