January 16-18th: Rolling the dice

[mattie g]

5 hours ago, mattie g said:

I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s white rain, but not as much as I’m looking forward to feet of prime-climo pattern.

Not like I’m some super prognosticator or anything, but I’m sticking to this “call” from earlier today.

[yoda]

I mean i like it... but i cant see more than an inch here.  I hope to be surprised 

[WxUSAF]

Is LWX running off 12z instead of 18z?

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Is LWX running off 12z instead of 18z?

Maybe they have the early access 0z runs 

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Dude every run of everything had me at zero this at least shows some color

The 12z Euro had a tenth more for you than 18z.

[clskinsfan]

This is our chance right here. And it is blossoming some. 

 

[osfan24]

Riding with Ellinwood. He’s conservative usually and his maps are almost always spot on.

[Terpeast]

30/27 currently, mostly clear but not that dry

[T. August]

29/27

[mitchnick]

Latest Srefs

[mitchnick]

Rap and Hrrr are around 1-1.5" at best for those with a shot.

[winter_warlock]

I was kinda surprised they issued a WWA for central md for a couple inches.. They must be thinking.....  Umm I really don't know what they are thinking lol

[winter_warlock]

Was 32.2F here in sparrows point MD just dropped to 31.9F in last 30 minutes

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Latest Srefs

Man...F these f'ing models 

[snowfan]

Really don't see anything supporting the WWA esp west of the bay or the earlier map showing places west of the bay getting 2-4. 

[TSSN+]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Rap and Hrrr are around 1-1.5" at best for those with a shot.

I’m hugging 0z Nam haha smokes us. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’m hugging 0z Nam haha smokes us. 

Yeah you PSU and Mappy should love that one!

[87storms]

7 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Really don't see anything supporting the WWA esp west of the bay or the earlier map showing places west of the bay getting 2-4. 

Looks like it's driven by forcing at 850mb swinging thru.  Probably gonna be frozen, but shorter duration west of 15.  One of those forecasts where mets are put to the test.

[NorthArlington101]

Looking at 00z hi-res guidance… not too late for LWX to cancel those advisories and save face. 

[Terpeast]

0z nam a little better for mby, but temps stay at 33-34 during the heaviest precip. Sounding is (wet) snow, but will have a tough time accumulating towards advisory criteria. 
 

[wxmeddler]

You can accumulate at 35 if it's heavy enough. It'll be slop on the grass and wet pavement but it'll be pretty.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

You can accumulate at 35 if it's heavy enough. It'll be slop on the grass and wet pavement but it'll be pretty.

True, but that means we’re banking on rates to get this to work out for most.

[Alfoman]

We got a bit screwed getting the initial slug of moisture with temps in and around the city. I think the only chance of accumulating snow would be if that precip field expands as the low ramps up - DC rides that line on the 0Z HRRR with temps dropping

[wxmeddler]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

True, but that means we’re banking on rates to get this to work out for most.

We have to pump up the weenies hopes and dreams before nature comes and crushes them... that's what the script says at least. Did you not receive a copy yet?

[ChillinIt]

Nw Cecil County Temp 27.0 1.6 inches of snow today...probably about the same Sunday!