Ginx snewx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 32 minutes ago, vortex95 said: So finished a stretch of overnights ydy morning, and slept in long, so just looked at everything in the last hr, including previous runs. It's odd. You look at the solid full latitude 500 trough and it axis, and you wonder why a weak wave scoots out quickly ahead of the upper support, taking the baroclinic zone w/ it!!! Looking at 500 alone, it should much better at the sfc for a decent coastal. Also, now the models don't develop any real strong sfc low? Huh? Again, the 500 alone does not suggest this should happen! Big difference than 24 hr ago as well. The 500 cuts off *well* W of New England and is stronger than ydy, and moves over right over the region. That should promote a sfc low *not* scooting out to sea. However, it's not titled below. The 700 low is co-located and goes right over the region, so we get dry slotted! But we never got any sig precip to begin w/! CoastalWx's worst nightmare! LOL. Moisture is quite limited w/ the upper low, so that will just mean half-decent snows across the mtns of NNE probably. Ydy was better actually, since the 500 low cut S of the region. And the two decent troughs that occur down the road, can't do much either, at least on the 06z GFS! The 06z ECMWF looks better for something this weekend. It's been piecemeal in regards to snowfall across the region so far this winter, no one storm can deliver widespread mdt-hvy SN. Just sub-regions, like LI to Cape Cod and NNE get localized decent snows. Now, we get a fragmented storm coming that that can't consolidate right!? I can see now why CoastalWx is really getting ticked! Great synopsis. Thanks.Yes I was pumped to see the 5H CLOSED S of us. Whatever made modeling move 300 miles ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 39 minutes ago, dryslot said: Should never start specific storm thread at this lead but we all knew the motive for it. We’re a superstitious bunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago what are the chances this comes back? Percentage wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Man... What a crowd. Things do look pretty crappy for a while, but why people want to just dig in how crappy it looks and how hard it is to get snow over and over and over again. It's like beating a dead horse with a stick. Talk about insanity. Time to take a break. See you guys when there's a real threat! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 37 minutes ago, vortex95 said: So finished a stretch of overnights ydy morning, and slept in long, so just looked at everything in the last hr, including previous runs. It's odd. You look at the solid full latitude 500 trough and it axis, and you wonder why a weak wave scoots out quickly ahead of the upper support, taking the baroclinic zone w/ it!!! Looking at 500 alone, it should much better at the sfc for a decent coastal. Also, now the models don't develop any real strong sfc low? Huh? Again, the 500 alone does not suggest this should happen! Big difference than 24 hr ago as well. The 500 cuts off *well* W of New England and is stronger than ydy, and moves over right over the region. That should promote a sfc low *not* scooting out to sea. However, it's not tilted below. The 700 low is co-located and goes right over the region, so we get dry slotted! But we never got any sig precip to begin w/! CoastalWx's worst nightmare! LOL.Moisture is quite limited w/ the upper low, so that will just mean half-decent snows across the mtns of NNE probably. Ydy was better actually, since the 500 low cut S of the region. And the two decent troughs that occur down the road, can't do much either, at least on the 06z GFS! The 06z ECMWF looks better for something this weekend. It's been piecemeal in regards to snowfall across the region so far this winter, no one storm can deliver widespread mdt-hvy SN. Just sub-regions, like LI to Cape Cod and NNE get localized decent snows. Now, we get a fragmented storm coming that that can't consolidate right!? I can see now why CoastalWx is really getting ticked! Always has been, even in the more "favorable" scenarios...which is why I never felt it warranted the excitement it elicited from some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago On the 12z GFS, Western Maine, Vt and NNH looks to cash a bit with the weak SLP going overhead on the 16th, But the BL is torched east of those areas so it looks to be a few 10'ths of QPF there verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: what are the chances this comes back? Percentage wise? 0.01 % 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Looks like the Sunday Monday threat will end up being a bigger deal.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Looks like the Sunday Monday threat will end up being a bigger deal.. Gfs says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Looks like no one will get jack shit ever because mother nature hates me. Pretty much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Stein ,, nothing like a Steiner pattern in the heart of winter At a minimum, maybe we'll get a nice dry launching pad for April infernos, before the green-up happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: The problems in all guidance could not be any more glaringly obvious ... It's all exceptionally highly sensitive to wave spacing issues. Sorry to keep hitting this aspect; I'm not seeing many of you writing about it. The diving "2nd wave" is bullying into the trough, imparting a polar oriented correction vector to the flow - trying to lift it up; that is directly opposing/offsetting the ability for the lead wave space to intrinsically dig/maintain amplitude. done deal. game over. that all has to iron itself out such that: a, one or the other becomes dominant or b, neither will be very significant. or c, some minoring event transpires perhaps out of both -... but in this case, the 2nd is a wild card. And Scott's right big time. The baroclinic axis is getting swept seaward and is not recovering in some of these guidance. That was magnificently spelled out in the 00z GFS, which showed an explosion of squally -linear convection out over the outer g-string, gobbling up al the moisture dynamics and running away with it. There's no other way in nature to demonstrate that without y'all learning Navier-Stokes For the moment anyway ... it seems the models are after option B 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Looping the last 4-5 runs of the gfs is objectively hilarious. It moved from a hit to so far out to sea it’s not even in the frame anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: For the moment anyway ... it seems the models are after option B I can tell you...I'm starting to switch, at just about precisely the same timing of the mid January dildoing last year....starting to look forward to milder times and baseball. It's just so draining that my patience is wearing thinner as the snow-drought grows longer, and I'm getting older. I may be planning my exit next year if December doesn't produce. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Cmc likes the 18th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc likes the 18th I'd watch that....said earlier it's tough to get both to produce nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago When dealing with phasing potential, it's not uncommon or farfetched to see swings of multiple hundreds or miles or more from run-to-run or even mode-to-model. The difference between a phase and no phase can end up substantial. Hell, even the difference between a phase and just a partial phase can be massive in terms of low development and track. The end of week/weekend was always very low potential but the changes needed to get something aren't terribly substantial. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can tell you...I'm starting to switch, at just about precisely the same timing of the mid January dildoing last year....starting to look forward to milder times and baseball. m'yeah at risk of being sort of callous and insensitive to the sensibilities in the air today, i agree. it's a long slog I pot-shotted a post about 3 nights ago or whenever that was that if this next 10 days fails to produce, this winter can go f itself. ha purely irrational fun but still, it is admittedly not nice to only have cold out doors. i was thinking so yesterday. internal monologue: '4 f weeks until we exit the solar min, then march ass bangs probably with 39 while buffalo soars to 70' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd watch that....said earlier it's trough to get both to produce nothing. No it’s not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd watch that....said earlier it's trough to get both to produce nothing. Next storms to watch is 18-20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can tell you...I'm starting to switch, at just about precisely the same timing of the mid January dildoing last year....starting to look forward to milder times and baseball. It's just so draining that my patience is wearing thinner as the snow-drought grows longer, and I'm getting older. I may be planning my exit next year if December doesn't produce. You’re making the natural progression Scooter and I and most others in here made. You’re getting closer to loving dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’re making the natural progression Scooter and I and most others in here made. You’re getting closer to loving dews can i just interject/ask? does it have to be dews? why not just warm weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No it’s not Not when you forecast based on 99% emotion, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not when you forecast based on 99% emotion, no. Who does that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’re making the natural progression Scooter and I and most others in here made. You’re getting closer to loving dews Nope....will never enjoy that. But I am sick of useless cold and a hobby that is more rewarding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Who does that ? You do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: can i just interject/ask? does it have to be dews? why not just warm weather. Because warm wx without dews is boring and is generally associated with nothing . Dews keep you warm at night outside , no need for hoodies etc.. and always risks of storms . Warm and dry is akin to cold and dry. BOREDOM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You do. I do? That’s news to me 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 35 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 0.01 % When ineedsnow gives it 10k:1 odds you know it’s over. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I do? That’s news to me We all do it to some degree...I'm guilty. I've tried to reel it in over recent seasons. Will probably doesn't, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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