Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[eyewall]

The other interesting part of this is if we do get snow it doesn't warm up immediately after and may stay cold enough to keep it on the ground a little longer.

 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The other interesting part of this is if we do get snow it doesn't warm up immediately after and may stay cold enough to keep it on the ground a little longer.

 

Looks like you can stay in the Triangle possibly for this one.

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Looks like you can stay in the Triangle possibly for this one.

that would be nice for sure! 

[SnowGoose69]

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Right now I think it is very plausible we see something out of this but I will caution that the warm nose almost always overpeforms and makes it farther inland than modeled. The pattern looks like it will be there but as always we live and die by the warm nose. 

Its early but not sure I see a scenario as LIKELY at the moment where RDU is in trouble with this as far as ptype.  I'd still be more worried about a miss than being too far W.

[Brick Tamland]

GFS was amazing. Just goes to show we never know until til we get to at least 5 days out. I think this could be a case of the GFS showing this storm in the long range, losing it, and then coming back again once we get inside 5 days. Would love to see the Euro jump on board. Still cautious since this would be the GFS leading the way instead of the Euro.

[Brick Tamland]

UK actually looked a lot like the GFS, too. Just need the Euro to jump on board.

[SEwakenosnowforu]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS was amazing. Just goes to show we never know until til we get to at least 5 days out. I think this could be a case of the GFS showing this storm in the long range, losing it, and then coming back again once we get inside 5 days. Would love to see the Euro jump on board. Still cautious since this would be the GFS leading the way instead of the Euro.

What did the overnight EURO show?

[WXNewton]

Big jump on 12z GEFS, agrees fairly well with OP.

[wncsnow]

UK actually looks worse..

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS was amazing. Just goes to show we never know until til we get to at least 5 days out. I think this could be a case of the GFS showing this storm in the long range, losing it, and then coming back again once we get inside 5 days. Would love to see the Euro jump on board. Still cautious since this would be the GFS leading the way instead of the Euro.

It was amazing.  We have seen the GFS sniff out storms well in advance in the recent past.  It did a good job with the February 2025 event and the mainly coastal event in January 2025.

[Brick Tamland]

Wonder if we're in the waffling back and forth phase with the models now.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

UK actually looks worse..

UK is just wacky at times.  I would not be concerned at this range.  I have as matter of fact said the past decade whatever the UK does the Euro does the opposite.  I have not kept tabs closely but feels since about 2015 when one makes a notable move at 12 or 00Z the other seems to do the reverse.  UK has given many of us along the EC hope only for the Euro to say no.  The old rule of them moving in tandem holds less frequently these days

[BornAgain13]

As much as I love the GFS with 6"+ up here, gonna be hard to get on board unless the Euro does.

[BornAgain13]

Hate that we lost the UK but if the Euro jumps on board then its game on. 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

As much as I love the GFS with 6"+ up here, gonna be hard to get on board unless the Euro does.

Yeah, some big differences in surface low location to resolve. Unclear if along 85 or the coastal plain will be the spot to be just yet

[WNC_Fort]

Back in the olden days, didn’t the UK sort of hint at where the EURO was going to end up on its next run? I feel like I remember folks making those connections back in 2014-2018 when we were tracking storms left and right

[SEwakenosnowforu]

4 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Back in the olden days, didn’t the UK sort of hint at where the EURO was going to end up on its next run? I feel like I remember folks making those connections back in 2014-2018 when we were tracking storms left and right

Scroll up and see what SnowGoose said about that.

[BooneWX]

Euro with a major jump west 

[BooneWX]

The Euro is very close to meeting the Montana benchmark that gets a lot of people involved. Idk what the surface will show shortly, but this trend is real.

[buckeyefan1]

[buckeyefan1]

[wncsnow]

That energy is a bit weak though 

[BooneWX]

Just now, wncsnow said:

That energy is a bit weak though 

Yep it’s not going to be a surface depiction we want but the energy is where we’d want it now. Just needs to amp some. 

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

The GFS has legs because of this. They’re almost identical at that hour, just a matter of who is right on the strength.

[Brick Tamland]

Someone give the Euro some juice. 

[wncsnow]

If the Euro is Dr. NO, the GFS is Dr. Troll for trolling us with hope 

[wncsnow]

Worse than last nights run TBH

[RaleighNC]

Come on, Pop. Do your thing!

[Brick Tamland]

Still plenty of time.for the Euro to jump on board. I wouldn't fret until Friday. There will probably be many different solutions on the models between now and then.

[olafminesaw]

Not a disaster but not a step towards the GFS either.