January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Roger Smith]

57 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Premature FOLKS-alation.   Rare.  But anyway, close enough.  that jog east kills us.

This could be ORF the charts, so RICh in potential, but keep your eye on the BALL because you may be more FROzen than CHOsen. Your snow gauge may be PHL or empty, and I may ACY this forecast or you may end up complaining to the BOS that I did not PVD good guidance. I won't LYH this is a tough one. There hasn't been one this tough since ABE Lincoln called the Blizzard of 1857 before he turned to politics. I couldn't think of a pun for DCA sorry. ISP we all slip on this stuff. EWR saying? 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

You’re here to watch all the models. You most definitely will look at it again and like it! 

GFS be batting below the Mendoza line 

[Ji]

19 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Reminds me of 18Z Sunday run of the Euro

AFRAID to post it because people may thing it is now! 

THIS WAS SUNDAY 18Z

 

good find Jimmy!

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Double barrel lows are actually common in these setups and that's something the GFS has been trying to show in its evolution. This setup is very complex and will include these types of variables whenever it materializes. 

I remember other models chasing a weak low out to sea along a boundary while the “real” low was closer to the coast and moved north in time slowly and took over the show. (I think but not sure could havd been either 2009-2010 or 1996) 

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

GFS be batting below the Mendoza line 

As an Os fans, I can think of a few players below the Mendoza over the years. I still watched in hopes of a hit though. 

[snowmagnet]

Waiting for the Euro 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I remember other models chasing a weak low out to sea along a boundary while the “real” low was closer to the coast and moved north in time slowly and took over the show. (I think but not sure could havd been either 2009-2010 or 1996) 

I definitely remember this too. I think it was 2009/2010. GFS is kind of doing that now. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

Waiting for the Euro 

There’s about a 5% chance it shows what you want, and a 25% chance it’s a little better than last run. 

[Roger Smith]

The LFM nailed the 1980 storm like you would not believe. Bring back the LFM. It goes out to 72 hours now ya know. 

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

There’s about a 5% chance it shows what you want, and a 25% chance it’s a little better than last run. 

Any positives are good! 

 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

There’s about a 5% chance it shows what you want, and a 25% chance it’s a little better than last run. 

60% of the time it fails us every time. 

[stormtracker]

Euro is a runnin

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The LFM nailed the 1980 storm like you would not believe. Bring back the LFM. It goes out to 72 hours now ya know. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Euro is a runnin

It's 6:09 PM. Did y'all complain about the dissemination issues?

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro is a runnin

That means the AI is probably out, and over Bermuda I’m sure. 

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

GFS be batting below the Mendoza line 

Chris Davis numbers

[Scraff]

Damn it! Forgot to crack one. Meh. It’s the Euro. I’ll do an N/A real quick. 

[LeesburgWx]

After seeing the GFS hold and its ensembles, if the Euro is still far east OTS, I think we all know what it would mean

[Chris78]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

After seeing the GFS hold and its ensembles, if the Euro is still far east OTS, I think we all know what it would mean

Gfs is a JV model? 

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS tick west

[stormtracker]

So far, an ass hair wester with what should be our formative close low at 48.   Money shots start at 72

[Roger Smith]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

After seeing the GFS hold and its ensembles, if the Euro is still far east OTS, I think we all know what it would mean

Absolutely, wait for the 00z suite right? 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS tick west

But don’t we need leaps and jumps?

[NorthArlington101]

But don’t we need leaps and jumps?

Yeah, I mean it’s not awesome, but it didn’t get worse.

[Weather Will]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

But don’t we need leaps and jumps?

DC is up to .1 inch on the EURO AI, baby steps!

[Bob Chill]

AIFS isn't really that far off of the gfs @ h5 and it definitely improved in the upper levels. Not what we want but a decisive trend in the right direction. 

[Cobalt]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I mean it’s not awesome, but it didn’t get worse.

How does this compare to 12z?

[stormtracker]

It's closer

 

[stormtracker]

[batmanbrad]

kinda like the old Timex watch commercials... we need Euro to take a licking and keep on ticking... (in the proper direction).  if we need 200 mile jump and it ticks the right way 25 miles at a time for 8 model runs... that'll work