January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[overcautionisbad]

The GFS has spoken and you will listen

[LP08]

Come on now.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I counted up each panel and was conservative and got 0.6. So around  6” snow 

What area are you looking at?  I checked TT for the 24-h QPF amounts and it's ~0.25-0.3" along I-95.  Obviously progressively more as you go south and east.

[weathercoins]

Iirc the GFS handled Feb 2013 much better than the Euro - or at least got it right earlier - showing a low farther west than most others that were showing ann offshore solution, and also a more accurate phase.  Clinging to straws 13 years ago… but still…

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Come on now.

Dare I say you don’t want that too much more north.  Or is spawns a demon off south Jersey. 

[WEATHER53]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

What area are you looking at?  I checked TT for the 24-h QPF amounts and it's ~0.25-0.3" along I-95.  Obviously progressively more as you go south and east.

Right around DC from panels Randeroo  provided .  Took each one and got 0.6

[IronTy]

GFSE looks good to me. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

Right around DC from panels Randeroo  provided .  Took each one and got 0.6

Hmm, OK...must be some weird discrepancy between the display providers.  It's like half that on TT.  But either way, at least a decent minor event and possibly more hopefully.

[LP08]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Dare I say you don’t want that too much more north.  Or is spawns a demon off south Jersey. 

Nahh…for up here you want it rolling right along the NC/VA border.  Look up 2016 at h5. That’s where it went.

[WEATHER53]

Also we are not in the business as usual realm now and an exploding  low very close by looks not usual and expect that to continue 

[midatlanticweather]

7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Come on now.

Reminds me of 18Z Sunday run of the Euro

AFRAID to post it because people may thing it is now! 

THIS WAS SUNDAY 18Z

 

[bncho]

18z GEFS

[Bob Chill]

Spread tightened up quite a bit... in a really good way too....

[NorthArlington101]

If the GFS/GEFS are this wrong - which, they probably are, sadly - the FV3 core should be dismantled and thrown into a volcano somewhere.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

18z GEFS

That mean snowfall is noticeably HIGHER than the deterministic amount from the GFS!

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

18z GEFS

That’s pretty sweet actually.  Way beater than I thought 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS at Sunday 1am; seems like the GFS is still trying to figure out exactly where the low will be.  IF, a Big IF, the 983 MB low position is close to the final solution, and it consolidates there, would expect more snow inland.

[LeesburgWx]

Ok, so we have GFS, GFS ensembles, Icon Ensembles, and RGEM (maybe) per previous maps posted all in decent agreement? When do the varsity models join?

[Bob Chill]

Gefs mean qpf last 8 runs...

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS; about 30% of members would make most happy.

[clskinsfan]

i dont know if anyone mentioned the RGEM. But it looks tons better at 18Z. CMC should follow suit. 

[Roger Smith]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

That AFD from Sterling was a mic drop.  They said wait and see and don’t get married to any model run until tomorrow.  Hard to argue that one. 

The outcome very much depends on results. Snowfalls will be what snow measurements reveal, except at DCA where you have to multiply by 1.25. A wide range of outcomes are possible, we will know which verifies by near the end of the event, or in some cases, at the end. Thanks for paying us to say all these things which amount to what you see is what you get. 

[Cobalt]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If the GFS/GEFS are this wrong - which, they probably are, sadly - the FV3 core should be dismantled and thrown into a volcano somewhere.

I recall when it hallucinated a threat back in late Jan 2021.. went bonkers for a few runs with the operational and ensemble snowfall totals then completely lost it. That was at like hr 132 though, so this would be something else.

[Weather Will]

The reality is we need Dr. No.  The rest are JV.  It is the reason all the tv Mets tonight are forecasting a fish storm.

[SnowGolfBro]

The GEFS ensembles hint that we aren’t done with the NW movements. Maybe they are out to lunch, but I’m going with them lol

[TSSN+]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If the GFS/GEFS are this wrong - which, they probably are, sadly - the FV3 core should be dismantled and thrown into a volcano somewhere.

I legit won’t ever look at it again. Rather look at the icon. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Really, really good discussion going on in the New England thread that's relevant to down here. Go take a look! General skepticism from a couple of red taggers about this being too east

[Scraff]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

I legit won’t ever look at it again. Rather look at the icon. 

You’re here to watch all the models. You most definitely will look at it again and like it! 

[MillvilleWx]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS at Sunday 1am; seems like the GFS is still trying to figure out exactly where the low will be.  IF, a Big IF, the 983 MB low position is close to the final solution, and it consolidates there, would expect more snow inland.

Double barrel lows are actually common in these setups and that's something the GFS has been trying to show in its evolution. This setup is very complex and will include these types of variables whenever it materializes. 

[LeesburgWx]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS; about 30% of members would make most happy.

Some big hitters boyz