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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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Iirc the GFS handled Feb 2013 much better than the Euro - or at least got it right earlier - showing a low farther west than most others that were showing ann offshore solution, and also a more accurate phase.  Clinging to straws 13 years ago… but still…

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Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

What area are you looking at?  I checked TT for the 24-h QPF amounts and it's ~0.25-0.3" along I-95.  Obviously progressively more as you go south and east.

Right around DC from panels Randeroo  provided .  Took each one and got 0.6

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Dare I say you don’t want that too much more north.  Or is spawns a demon off south Jersey. 

Nahh…for up here you want it rolling right along the NC/VA border.  Look up 2016 at h5. That’s where it went.

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2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

That AFD from Sterling was a mic drop.  They said wait and see and don’t get married to any model run until tomorrow.  Hard to argue that one. 

The outcome very much depends on results. Snowfalls will be what snow measurements reveal, except at DCA where you have to multiply by 1.25. A wide range of outcomes are possible, we will know which verifies by near the end of the event, or in some cases, at the end. Thanks for paying us to say all these things which amount to what you see is what you get. 

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11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If the GFS/GEFS are this wrong - which, they probably are, sadly - the FV3 core should be dismantled and thrown into a volcano somewhere.

I recall when it hallucinated a threat back in late Jan 2021.. went bonkers for a few runs with the operational and ensemble snowfall totals then completely lost it. That was at like hr 132 though, so this would be something else.

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11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If the GFS/GEFS are this wrong - which, they probably are, sadly - the FV3 core should be dismantled and thrown into a volcano somewhere.

I legit won’t ever look at it again. Rather look at the icon. 

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10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS at Sunday 1am; seems like the GFS is still trying to figure out exactly where the low will be.  IF, a Big IF, the 983 MB low position is close to the final solution, and it consolidates there, would expect more snow inland.

IMG_8049.png

Double barrel lows are actually common in these setups and that's something the GFS has been trying to show in its evolution. This setup is very complex and will include these types of variables whenever it materializes. 

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