January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Amped]

Just now, Ephesians2 said:

Looking at 108h on the 12z Euro, I see:

- surface low 100 miles west of 06z 

- 996 mb on the 12z, 1004 mb on the 06z

Also at 102h, I see a 500mb low that is over 100 miles southwest of 06z, as well as being less positively tilted and better organized.

What am I missing?

Sure it's not enough, and not as good as the runs from a couple of days ago, but I don't think it's time to throw in the towel yet.

Its pretty much the same as 00z  and not as good as 18z, but yes ots better than 6z.

[LeesburgWx]

120 hours out is only 5 days. When was the last time the GFS was wrong only 5 days out?

[bncho]

@Terpeast 
When do you think this model reshuffle will happen?

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

120 hours out is only 5 days. When was the last time the GFS was wrong only 5 days out?

[The Dude]

Dr. Uccellini:  "I'd rather be in Hamilton"

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

i have no idea but everytime we have a NS event---someone brings it up. So its become tradition

Iirc, gfs had a hot streak in JFM 2014. It did a good job picking up fast flow shortwaves in the mid range when Dr no was Dr no'ing

[paulythegun]

When it comes to this coastal low, the question facing us is this:

Tuck? Or no tuck?

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Iirc, gfs had a hot streak in JFM 2014. It did a good job picking up fast flow shortwaves in the mid range when Dr no was Dr no'ing

When you have the cold in place there are so many more ways to score. Get some precip up this way in the next couple weeks and it will be frozen.

[T. August]

Boston had 0” on 90% of model runs this time last week.

[LeesburgWx]

It’s always like this though. It’s never just 100% of models show no snow. Always 1 that does just to make you lose more hours of your life following it for the final heart break at T minus 0 hours

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

@Terpeast 
When do you think this model reshuffle will happen?

Thought it’d be today, but…

[Nomz]

AIFS wants a weak Miller B a little past h200 on the 12z. Has showed up a couple times on previous runs and other models but I think this is the strongest signal so far.

[csnavywx]

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Its a jump west, not enough to hit us but it could be a reversal of its ongoing east trend. Maybe just meeting in the middle?

If the meat of that developing advection lobe continues to trend west along the major axis here, the surface depiction will change in a hurry. Notable improvement at H5 already (in the same direction as the GFS/AIGFS, even if the ECAIFS only nudged a bit initially). Holding it back right now a bit is the trend in the lobe over SE Canada.

[osfan24]

4 minutes ago, T. August said:

Boston had 0” on 90% of model runs this time last week.

Im just trying to remember a time something like this broke our way.

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's the middle ground I've been thinking about. That or the lead shortwave doesn't dig as far. There's plenty enough on the table to keep us interested in tracking some snow in the area. A big bomb has never been likely but some sort of accum event isn't off the table either 

 

13 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Had the same thought it would have far less upside but would be cold powder on top of our glacier 

Yeah the thought came to me the other day. Gfs definitely has moved north and maybe GGEM if you squint. Haven’t seen much of that from the euro suite yet. But like I said yesterday or Sunday, this thing screams late north trend. 

[clskinsfan]

Euro has another southern slider next week. I need to take a break from this hobby man. 

[anotherman]

3 minutes ago, T. August said:

Boston had 0” on 90% of model runs this time last week.

But they are Boston.  They get snow by accident all the time.

[Climate175]

10 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Man, this thread is having me laughing real good!

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Euro has another southern slider next week. I need to take a break from this hobby man. 

has some run to run consistency too lol. surely we win eventually

[Ephesians2]

EPS mean a bit west of 12z with the 500mb low at 102h. Looks more amped too.

[LeesburgWx]

The GFS has moved west with just about each consecutive run, especially ensembles. Is it just going to say F it, we gon’ go east now? I think I know but really?

[EHoffman]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

The GFS has moved west with just about each consecutive run, especially ensembles. Is it just going to say F it, we gon’ go east now? I think I know but really?

I mean the GFS was keeping us 90% snow for the last storm basically right into game time, so if it doesn't trend east it might just be flat out wrong again.

[Ephesians2]

Not what we need but it's improved from 06z and 00z.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

7 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

If the meat of that developing advection lobe continues to trend west along the major axis here, the surface depiction will change in a hurry. Notable improvement at H5 already (in the same direction as the GFS/AIGFS, even if the ECAIFS only nudged a bit initially). Holding it back right now a bit is the trend in the lobe over SE Canada.

Appreciate the insight. Trying to follow here, is the advection lobe you are referring to the feature over the Midwest? I see the issues in SE Canada, just want to understand the first part of your post. Thanks! 

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

EPS mean a bit west of 12z with the 500mb low at 102h. Looks more amped too.

None of them are real winners though (00z yesterday - 12z today)

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

Not what we need but it's improved from 06z and 00z.

That looks like five or so members way south or east really skewing things.

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

None of them are real winners though (00z yesterday - 12z today)

It is more consolidated which is what we would expect. At this range I think they tend to follow the op

[Buddy1987]

10 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

If the meat of that developing advection lobe continues to trend west along the major axis here, the surface depiction will change in a hurry. Notable improvement at H5 already (in the same direction as the GFS/AIGFS, even if the ECAIFS only nudged a bit initially). Holding it back right now a bit is the trend in the lobe over SE Canada.

This was what I feel like @clskinsfanwas alluding to yesterday from recollection, whereas h5 should've shown some better results but was lagging at the surface. Hoping we steal one and get at minimum a moderate event. 

[RevWarReenactor]

I guess now we know how Jan 25, 2000 happened and December 2000 didn't. Very very slight changes mean huge differences. This will probably come down to the wire, especially for eastern areas.

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

It is more consolidated which is what we would expect. At this range I think they tend to follow the op

I think the ensembles hold more value through 12z tomorrow. Then we should lean on the operational models inside of 72 hours