January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

 

Reminder that 3-6" shown there is more like 5-10" with ratios

[snowmagnet]

Just now, mitchnick said:

 

That's not bad for this far out. Models are clearly still working it out. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I never count my ratio chickens until they hatch. Just want the storm first. But would *hope* we do better here than 10:1.

I would LOVE 3-6 or 4-8 snow on snow in an arctic pattern with good ratios.  But heck let’s get this to trend back to a blizzard, still possible. 

[bncho]

EPS-AI is about the same as 12z, which means it's a good signal

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO AI snow prob..

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I never count my ratio chickens until they hatch. Just want the storm first. But would *hope* we do better here than 10:1.

We got caught up the last storm cause it was so cold coming into it.  WAA events are notorious for us to under perform for ratios.  @MN Transplantbasically had 10-1 for the snow push in the morning.

 

Coastals are better but again, unless we are deformed to death I’m never assuming anything more than 12-1 at most.

[Ephesians2]

 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

Thanks! That looks pretty sweet. Seeing the push of decent totals deep into NC is awesome. Other than a whiff, my biggest concern in SWVA is the depth of the trough backing off as leads shorten. Solid consensus of an insurance policy with that. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

 

 

Lots of lefties in there.

[grhqofb5]

Guys- there’s 3 obvious things we should all realize at this point 4+ days out:

(1) The storm track will move either significantly northwest, or southeast. Most likely Northwest.

(2) When it moves Northwest, there will widespread mixing issues in DC area. If it moves southeast, the DC area will get virtually nothing.

(3) There will be no “thundersnow.”

 

[Heisy]

 

That 966 one looks fun


.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

 

 

Only reason the mean is not further west are a few way out to sea members.

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lots of lefties in there.

Leannnnn left 

[Paleocene]

Made this gif of the EPS mslp 06, 12, 18z. valid sunday 06z.  

good bounce back at 18z today.  you can see the spread was a bit greater at 06z with some way inland outliers that have been cleaned up.

[osfan24]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

Here she comes!

[nj2va]

13 minutes ago, LP08 said:

We got caught up the last storm cause it was so cold coming into it.  WAA events are notorious for us to under perform for ratios.  @MN Transplantbasically had 10-1 for the snow push in the morning.

 

Coastals are better but again, unless we are deformed to death I’m never assuming anything more than 12-1 at most.

Yeah, the CCB would be where higher ratios would come into play.

[osfan24]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Only reason the mean is not further west are a few way out to sea members.

Damn, that looks really good. Mean is really being skewed. Would love to see the men’s with just a few of those way wide right being removed.

[umdterps29]

.25 qpf would be 4-8 inches with 15-1 rations. For where we sit now, I would definitely take.

Interesting math skills


.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Here she comes!

Looks really good, throwing precip back to the wv panhandle is a good sign. 

[Ji]

which was better ensembles 00z,6z or 18z?

[Solution Man]

14 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

Guys- there’s 3 obvious things we should all realize at this point 4+ days out:

(1) The storm track will move either significantly northwest, or southeast. Most likely Northwest.

(2) When it moves Northwest, there will widespread mixing issues in DC area. If it moves southeast, the DC area will get virtually nothing.

(3) There will be no “thundersnow.”

 

[LordBaltimore]

4 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

Interesting math skills


.

they were accounting for slantsticking

[snowmagnet]

17 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

Guys- there’s 3 obvious things we should all realize at this point 4+ days out:

(1) The storm track will move either significantly northwest, or southeast. Most likely Northwest.

(2) When it moves Northwest, there will widespread mixing issues in DC area. If it moves southeast, the DC area will get virtually nothing.

(3) There will be no “thundersnow.”

 

How about "might", or "may" instead of "will"?  We can do Goldilocks around here.  I know it's been a decade, but.... 

[grhqofb5]

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

How about "might", or "may" instead of "will"?  We can do Goldilocks around here.  I know it's been a decade, but.... 

There shall not be any “vagaries” in those three statements.  This I give unto you and those that may deny me. For this is the truth and the word.

[Thewiledcard]

8 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

they were accounting for slantsticking

Always round up!!

[psuhoffman]

I know I seem really confident here... I am not.  And I have no special insight.  But I do know if the trend across guidance of the last 2 weeks or so, ever since the current pattern started of severe -AO and a retrogressing longwave pattern, this will look nothing like what people think of when they say "miller b".  Does that mean this hits...probably not, most of our threats fail, even in a year like 2010, we remember the big hits...we don't remember the 2 storms in December that failed before Dec 19, or the one around New Years, or the one in mid January that made Ji go thermal nuclear and blow up the thread, or the 2 later in February or the one in March that made Ji say the season was ruined.  Even in the absolute BEST possible patterns we fail more than we win...but if we get a good pattern and have it lock in for a significant period of our cold season...we do usually eventually win...and I think we will this year also.  

What I can say about this threat specifically is that unless guidance is way off on the depth of the trough this is not similar to our typical miller b setup.  Could it trend towards that...yea, if the NS wave starts not digging as far south...if we start to see it start to trend northeast...then yea this becomes a typical NYC to Boston storm and yes that could happen.  

But...know what else could happen...if the seasonal trend continues and the whole trough ends up another 200 miles west 5 days from now...this ends up closer to January 1996 than a typical miller b.  That was a northern stream wave that dove in and captured a weak STJ wave also...but it dove in through the Dakotas and right now guidance has this diving in through Wisconsin.  Shift this west a bit and its almost identical to the 1996 setup.  It's also coming as a previous -3stdv greenland block dissipates as it retrogrades into central Canada, which was the setup in 1996 also! 

I am NOT saying this is a 1996 repeat...just that its a lot closer to that type of thing than I think many realize.  If we only get a slight west shift it becomes similar to January 1966, take a look at the h5 in the KU book for that one...its damn close just that one the NS wave dove in around the WI/MN border...slightly west of where guidance has this one.   

It could go the other way, past does not always predict future.  Maye the trend this time is north...or east...or south and the deep south gets clobbered...but if whats been the most common guidance error were to play out...we would end up with a serious threat here from this...that's all I am saying.  

Oh and BTW 1996 looked almost identical to what the models are showing right now when it was 3-5 days out...it didn't morph into a huge storm for us until 24 hours out.  Remember when Bob Ryan cam back on the 11 news after his actual weather segment to say "we're getting a blizzard" at the end of the broadcast.  They didn't even have graphics yet...but the 0z guidance all came out during the 11 news and showed it shifting north.  Until then it was a richmond to NC blizzard.  Yea the guidance is better now...so maybe that correction would happen around day 4 instead of day 1-2 but it's not so much better that a similar error can't happen 5-6 days out from the storm.  

[Thewiledcard]

14 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

Interesting math skills


.

Am I missing something?? I wasn’t an ace at math but I feel I am close? *shrugs

[bncho]

Here are the actual three major possibilities.

1. Jan 2000-like (and I guess Jan 1996-like, because of PSU ), a blizzard from Raleigh to Boston. 
2. Jan 2022-like, a blizzard from the Outer Banks, Delmarva, Jersey Coast, and eastern New England. The I-95 corridor receives snowfall, but it's less than option one.
3. OTS; it's a fish storm.

What is the most likely possibility? I am not sure. These are the three major possibilities, not all the possibilities.

[EHoffman]

31 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

Guys- there’s 3 obvious things we should all realize at this point 4+ days out:

(1) The storm track will move either significantly northwest, or southeast. Most likely Northwest.

(2) When it moves Northwest, there will widespread mixing issues in DC area. If it moves southeast, the DC area will get virtually nothing.

(3) There will be no “thundersnow.”

 

This man climos

[DaleCityDave]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know I seem really confident here... I am not.  And I have no special insight.  But I do know if the trend across guidance of the last 2 weeks or so, ever since the current pattern started of severe -AO and a retrogressing longwave pattern, this will look nothing like what people think of when they say "miller b".  Does that mean this hits...probably not, most of our threats fail, even in a year like 2010, we remember the big hits...we don't remember the 2 storms in December that failed before Dec 19, or the one around New Years, or the one in mid January that made Ji go thermal nuclear and blow up the thread, or the 2 later in February or the one in March that made Ji say the season was ruined.  Even in the absolute BEST possible patterns we fail more than we win...but if we get a good pattern and have it lock in for a significant period of our cold season...we do usually eventually win...and I think we will this year also.  

What I can say about this threat specifically is that unless guidance is way off on the depth of the trough this is not similar to our typical miller b setup.  Could it trend towards that...yea, if the NS wave starts not digging as far south...if we start to see it start to trend northeast...then yea this becomes a typical NYC to Boston storm and yes that could happen.  

But...know what else could happen...if the seasonal trend continues and the whole trough ends up another 200 miles west 5 days from now...this ends up closer to January 1996 than a typical miller b.  That was a northern stream wave that dove in and captured a weak STJ wave also...but it dove in through the Dakotas and right now guidance has this diving in through Wisconsin.  Shift this west a bit and its almost identical to the 1996 setup.  It's also coming as a previous -3stdv greenland block dissipates as it retrogrades into central Canada, which was the setup in 1996 also! 

I am NOT saying this is a 1996 repeat...just that its a lot closer to that type of thing than I think many realize.  If we only get a slight west shift it becomes similar to January 1966, take a look at the h5 in the KU book for that one...its damn close just that one the NS wave dove in around the WI/MN border...slightly west of where guidance has this one.   

It could go the other way, past does not always predict future.  Maye the trend this time is north...or east...or south and the deep south gets clobbered...but if whats been the most common guidance error were to play out...we would end up with a serious threat here from this...that's all I am saying.  

Oh and BTW 1996 looked almost identical to what the models are showing right now when it was 3-5 days out...it didn't morph into a huge storm for us until 24 hours out.  Remember when Bob Ryan cam back on the 11 news after his actual weather segment to say "we're getting a blizzard" at the end of the broadcast.  They didn't even have graphics yet...but the 0z guidance all came out during the 11 news and showed it shifting north.  Until then it was a richmond to NC blizzard.  Yea the guidance is better now...so maybe that correction would happen around day 4 instead of day 1-2 but it's not so much better that a similar error can't happen 5-6 days out from the storm.  

Hard to not get excited reading this!