January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

FInally closes off at 123

This will be epic …yes it will 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

.

 

A lot of moving parts and plenty of atmosphere to go through. A lot can still change yet

[stormtracker]

Ok, on to the euro.  It's gonna bring the Happy to Happy Hour.

[Disc]

This is an incredibly delicate setup. So many little pieces moving around and we'll continue to see some wild swings.

[Thewiledcard]

Aigfs was an improvement fyi

[mattie g]

The ridge out west is much better at 126. Vort is closed and digging farther south.

[Paleocene]

Myrtle Beach jackpots are super common so I'm sure the GFS is correct

[87storms]

It does seem like a Jan 2000 would make a decent analog to this setup.

[mob1]

GFS shows quite the storm off OBX. Too far east for us, but highlights the potential. 

[mattie g]

I feel like it took a couple good steps, so I'm not hating it. A little disappointed is all.

[Duca892]

Slightly disappointed for sure. Just hoping 0z suite is good. If not then I think we can start tossing this one a tiny bit. Will definitely be out of the watching suite to suite if this isn't back tonight. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS fish storm

[Weather Will]

WB AIGFS also a fish storm.

[Scraff]

That’s it. I’m out! I give up…for a just a few minutes until I crack one more. Then I’m back in for the Euro. 

[Ji]

JMA was a huge hit btw

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2026012612/jma_z500_mslp_us_7.png

[EHoffman]

GFS is one thing but I'd really like to get Euro back here after that disastrous 12z run.  I don't even wanna be in the GFS bullseye at day 5/6

[EHoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

JMA was a huge hit btw

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2026012612/jma_z500_mslp_us_7.png

It was only like .5 QPF in the metros tho

[Ji]

Just now, EHoffman said:

It was only like .5 QPF in the metros tho

thats a foot with ratios. 

[clueless]

Good thing about the GFS is it skunked NE. Just OTS.  I’m petty.  Yes. 

[EHoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

thats a foot with ratios. 

Oh yeah just like this weekend

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended for February still looks cold with above normal precipitation. There should be more chances if the weekend threat fizzles out.

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, clueless said:

Good thing about the GFS is it skunked NE. Just OTS.  I’m petty.  Yes. 

Agreed. If Norfolk and Boston don’t get anything, I’m fine with sunny skies

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended for February still looks cold with above normal precipitation. There should be more chances if the weekend threat fizzles out.

Looks to have this weekend's fish storm. Must be right! Lol

[Ji]

Oh yeah just like this weekend

Upper levels are way colder

[Chris78]

The trend on the Aifs is undeniable. 

Everything backing up west over the last 24 hours.

Not there yet but another day of trends like this and it will be.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Upper levels are way colder

Not feeling this one.  I hate coastals.  It’s all or nothing.  Overrunning lows from the SW are the way to go.  

[Conway7305]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The trend on the Aifs is undeniable. 

Everything backing up west over the last 24 hours.

Not there yet but another day of trends like this and it will be.

What about trends on the Euro  AIFS?

[clskinsfan]

Gefs:

[jayyy]

This has been brought up several times today by other posters including but not limited to chill and psu. you are slow to call bingo.

If you think I read through every single page of this thread, you’d be mistaken

[Ji]

Not feeling this one.  I hate coastals.  It’s all or nothing.  Overrunning lows from the SW are the way to go.  

Yea but it’s Nina. We are lucky we for what we got