January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

How reliable is the CFS, those are some strong systems too 971?

It's not for particular storm threats. It does ok with forecasts in general terms 1 month out (as in a week or so before the end of 1 month for the next month.) It can score a coup, but that's not very often, so don't count on it. Lol

[EastCoast NPZ]

10 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

How reliable is the CFS, those are some strong systems too 971?

 

[GreyHat]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's not for particular storm threats. It does ok with forecasts in general terms 1 month out (as in a week or so before the end of 1 month for the next month.) It can score a coup, but that's not very often, so don't count on it. Lol

Thank you. Will see how the other models do with this next one once the current one clears out. 

[Bob Chill]

Not too jazzed on next weekend rn. Ridge axis to the west is prob too close and the setup requires near perfection with timing as the window to crawl the coast is super tight.  Time will tell. Beyond that is looking more ripe. Western ridge axis retros and a strong west based NAO block would force NS shortwaves south of us and far enough west for some amplification. Split flow potential as well. I REALLY like this look....

 

Eta: all 3 global ens are lock step. Confidence booster...

 

 

 

 

[Nomz]

GFS has a clipper Friday night. Widespread 1", especially towards the south end of the region.

[frd]

1 hour ago, GreyHat said:

How reliable is the CFS, those are some strong systems too 971?

Not very, but at least it shows it supports an active cold period in Feb. . 

[DDweatherman]

48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not too jazzed on next weekend rn. Ridge axis to the west is prob too close and the setup requires near perfection with timing as the window to crawl the coast is super tight.  Time will tell. Beyond that is looking more ripe. Western ridge axis retros and a strong west based NAO block would force NS shortwaves south of us and far enough west for some amplification. Split flow potential as well. I REALLY like this look....

 

Eta: all 3 global ens are lock step. Confidence booster...

 

 

 

 

I’m with you on that window Bob, just told my buddy I think after Feb 6th is when our next “prime” window comes into play. It’ll be one of the coldest stretches between now and then that we’ve had in a LONG time. In general; interested to see how this winter ends wrt anomalies on temps. Going to be a shame up in there parts if we end up at 60% to climo snowfall given these temps. 

[alexj7]

From what I remember, CMC was the first I noticed hinting at large amounts of sleet across DC metro, as early as Tuesday night last week. But that’s just one data point.

[Nomz]

I'll wait for Euro AIFS to tell me something. It 100% led the charge on the last storm.

[LordBaltimore]

GFS and Euro suggests at least 5-6 nights where subzero temperatures are a possibility in the DMV. Will be fun when these come into range for high res models

If anyone in the area can get calm wind overhead the bottom could easily fall out

[Maestrobjwa]

42 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’m with you on that window Bob, just told my buddy I think after Feb 6th is when our next “prime” window comes into play. It’ll be one of the coldest stretches between now and then that we’ve had in a LONG time. In general; interested to see how this winter ends wrt anomalies on temps. Going to be a shame up in there parts if we end up at 60% to climo snowfall given these temps. 

Yeah you'd think if next weekend's window was a thing the ops would at least start spitting out some manner of solutions by now.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah you'd think if next weekend's window was a thing the ops would at least start spitting out some manner of solutions by now.

That's kind of what I'm thinking too.  Maybe that clipper-type system around Friday but it's the time after that perhaps that may be good, hopefully!  In fact, yeah it's an ops deterministic, but today's 12Z GFS shows an "incoming" potential at the end of its run at 360-384 hours!!  CMC kind of hints at something too around hour 240 (end of its run).  ECMWF, nothing much in particular but hints of stuff "out there" in time.  Key takeaway for me is, we should have some tracking going on for awhile, and hopefully we'll cash in and score!

[NorthArlington101]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Not too jazzed on next weekend rn. Ridge axis to the west is prob too close and the setup requires near perfection with timing as the window to crawl the coast is super tight.  Time will tell. Beyond that is looking more ripe. Western ridge axis retros and a strong west based NAO block would force NS shortwaves south of us and far enough west for some amplification. Split flow potential as well. I REALLY like this look....

 

Eta: all 3 global ens are lock step. Confidence booster...

 

 

 

 

Modeling consensus is definitely that this misses us off shore. Would rather not wait til 384 so just gonna keep tracking it until it’s off the end. Why not. 

[AlexD1990]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Modeling consensus is definitely that this misses us off shore. Would rather not wait til 384 so just gonna keep tracking it until it’s off the end. Why not. 

Considering it's almost a week out, and this past storm was at this range burying Norfolk, I hold hope.

[yoda]

@WxUSAF @MN Transplant

@Terpeast @Eskimo Joe

I assume this is more for the mountains or for us too? Updated morning AFD mentioned this

KEY MESSAGE 3...Light accumulating snow possible midweek.

A quick moving clipper system will cross the region during the late
Wed night/early Thu time period. While models only predict trace to
0.02 inches water equivalent with this clipper system, this amount
falling with temperatures in the low teens and single digits may
cause result in SLRs as high as 40 to 1 assuming the snow is able to
reach the ground in such a dry air mass. At the very least, a
special commuting hazard statement looks likely and in the worst
case a Winter Wx Advisory may be required.

&&

[adelphi_sky]

29 minutes ago, yoda said:

@WxUSAF @MN Transplant

@Terpeast @Eskimo Joe

I assume this is more for the mountains or for us too? Updated morning AFD mentioned this

KEY MESSAGE 3...Light accumulating snow possible midweek.

A quick moving clipper system will cross the region during the late
Wed night/early Thu time period. While models only predict trace to
0.02 inches water equivalent with this clipper system, this amount
falling with temperatures in the low teens and single digits may
cause result in SLRs as high as 40 to 1 assuming the snow is able to
reach the ground in such a dry air mass. At the very least, a
special commuting hazard statement looks likely and in the worst
case a Winter Wx Advisory may be required.

&&

Can't remember the year. But it was real cold. Maybe like 20s. And this weird light snow happened in DC. Maybe like a trace. Roads weren't treated because it wasn't forecast. I recall Ruch hour where it took people like 6 hours to travel just a few miles in DC. It was crazy. Just a light to moderate dry snow for like an hour and there was gridlock. 

[Paleocene]

Just now, adelphi_sky said:

Can't remember the year. But it was real cold. Maybe like 20s. And this weird light snow happened in DC. Maybe like a trace. Roads weren't treated because it wasn't forecast. I recall Ruch hour where it took people like 6 hours to travel just a few miles in DC. It was crazy. Just a light to moderate dry snow for like an hour and there was gridlock. 

wasn't that in 2016, right before the big blizzard?

[adelphi_sky]

6 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

wasn't that in 2016, right before the big blizzard?

No, this was in 99 or 2000. I used to work on Wisconsin Ave. and it took me hours to get to my house in Adelphi. 

EDIT:  

Surprise Nor’Easter of January 25, 2000

Early morning drivers on Tuesday, January 25, 2000 were ambushed by a surprise snowstorm. Although most schools had cancelled classes by the start of the rush hour, many people ventured onto the roads unaware that the forecast had drastically changed overnight. The storm, initially expected to veer south of Washington, took direct aim on the East Coast Megalopolis producing widespread snowfall during the mid-morning hours.

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

@WxUSAF @MN Transplant

@Terpeast @Eskimo Joe

I assume this is more for the mountains or for us too? Updated morning AFD mentioned this

KEY MESSAGE 3...Light accumulating snow possible midweek.

A quick moving clipper system will cross the region during the late
Wed night/early Thu time period. While models only predict trace to
0.02 inches water equivalent with this clipper system, this amount
falling with temperatures in the low teens and single digits may
cause result in SLRs as high as 40 to 1 assuming the snow is able to
reach the ground in such a dry air mass. At the very least, a
special commuting hazard statement looks likely and in the worst
case a Winter Wx Advisory may be required.

&&

I don't think I've experience 40:1 outside of the upper Midwest, but it is at least in the realm of possibility.  We effectively did 20:1 in early December this winter and that wasn't a crazy airmass.  It is just fluff at those ratios.

[Chris78]

I'm not giving up yet on next weekend. The storm today moved hundreds of miles NW over a matter of a couple days.

Probably won't turn out to be anything but I was stressing about being fringed 5 days ago and look at today lol. Who knows

 

 

[osfan24]

19 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I don't think I've experience 40:1 outside of the upper Midwest, but it is at least in the realm of possibility.  We effectively did 20:1 in early December this winter and that wasn't a crazy airmass.  It is just fluff at those ratios.

I thought we had something like that in either 2014 or 2015.

[frd]

Oh my

 

[osfan24]

25 minutes ago, frd said:

Oh my

 

Meh, hard to get excited about 360 hours away…..again. We just keep punting to good patterns down the road and striking out. I want to hit next weekend. That’s what everyone was hyping as the big window.

[AlexD1990]

9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Meh, hard to get excited about 360 hours away…..again. We just keep punting to good patterns down the road and striking out. I want to hit next weekend. That’s what everyone was hyping as the big window.

Plenty of time yet. Remember how much this one changed from the same time lead.

[DDweatherman]

2 hours ago, adelphi_sky said:

No, this was in 99 or 2000. I used to work on Wisconsin Ave. and it took me hours to get to my house in Adelphi. 

EDIT:  

Surprise Nor’Easter of January 25, 2000

Early morning drivers on Tuesday, January 25, 2000 were ambushed by a surprise snowstorm. Although most schools had cancelled classes by the start of the rush hour, many people ventured onto the roads unaware that the forecast had drastically changed overnight. The storm, initially expected to veer south of Washington, took direct aim on the East Coast Megalopolis producing widespread snowfall during the mid-morning hours.

Well, it definitely wasn’t 1/25/2000 since people got 10-20”  

[Bob Chill]

2 closed contour NAO block showing on a d15 ens mean is crazy. That's high confidence and probably stable if it verifies. CFS has the block continuing through Feb. Doesn't guaranty anything of course but if you want a big coastal in Feb it's the best index to have in your favor. 

Big blocks can be dry so it doesn't mean wet/active. Patience will prob be needed for a time. Clipper type chances over the next 1-2 weeks seems like the best chance for snowfall. Beyond that could be pretty ripe for something big. 

 

Eta: @frdwas already on top of this. I didnt see his post before making mine. Nothing wrong with seeing this panel 2... or 200 times lol

[Nomz]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

2 closed contour NAO block showing on a d15 ens mean is crazy. That's high confidence and probably stable if it verifies. CFS has the block continuing through Feb. Doesn't guaranty anything of course but if you want a big coastal in Feb it's the best index to have in your favor. 

Big blocks can be dry so it doesn't mean wet/active. Patience will prob be needed for a time. Clipper type chances over the next 1-2 weeks seems like the best chance for snowfall. Beyond that could be pretty ripe for something big. 

Do clippers generally not translate to anything more than an inch and change around here?

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Nomz said:

Do clippers generally not translate to anything more than an inch and change around here?

In the past we've had a # of clippers that drop 2-4/3-5 but certain specific things need to happen... the shortwave and slp have to pass underneath us and there needs to be some room for it to amplify before exiting the coast.

For right now it looks like the ridge/trough axis will set up too far east for room to amplify but that can easily change. Clippers are usually identified in the mid range so under d5 on guidance. Anything beyond that is usually a phantom. They often seemingly pop up out of nowhere. Very different tracking than the current storm 

[Heisy]

18z Euro Ai keeping hope slightly alive for next week, 12z eps still had a few good members in there.


.

[adelphi_sky]

1 hour ago, DDweatherman said:

Well, it definitely wasn’t 1/25/2000 since people got 10-20”  

I'm old now. My memory is failing. lol. But it was one of those surprises.