January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

How reliable is the CFS, those are some strong systems too 971?

It's not for particular storm threats. It does ok with forecasts in general terms 1 month out (as in a week or so before the end of 1 month for the next month.) It can score a coup, but that's not very often, so don't count on it. Lol

[EastCoast NPZ]

10 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

How reliable is the CFS, those are some strong systems too 971?

 

[GreyHat]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's not for particular storm threats. It does ok with forecasts in general terms 1 month out (as in a week or so before the end of 1 month for the next month.) It can score a coup, but that's not very often, so don't count on it. Lol

Thank you. Will see how the other models do with this next one once the current one clears out. 

[Bob Chill]

Not too jazzed on next weekend rn. Ridge axis to the west is prob too close and the setup requires near perfection with timing as the window to crawl the coast is super tight.  Time will tell. Beyond that is looking more ripe. Western ridge axis retros and a strong west based NAO block would force NS shortwaves south of us and far enough west for some amplification. Split flow potential as well. I REALLY like this look....

 

Eta: all 3 global ens are lock step. Confidence booster...

 

 

 

 

[Nomz]

GFS has a clipper Friday night. Widespread 1", especially towards the south end of the region.

[frd]

1 hour ago, GreyHat said:

How reliable is the CFS, those are some strong systems too 971?

Not very, but at least it shows it supports an active cold period in Feb. . 

[DDweatherman]

48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not too jazzed on next weekend rn. Ridge axis to the west is prob too close and the setup requires near perfection with timing as the window to crawl the coast is super tight.  Time will tell. Beyond that is looking more ripe. Western ridge axis retros and a strong west based NAO block would force NS shortwaves south of us and far enough west for some amplification. Split flow potential as well. I REALLY like this look....

 

Eta: all 3 global ens are lock step. Confidence booster...

 

 

 

 

I’m with you on that window Bob, just told my buddy I think after Feb 6th is when our next “prime” window comes into play. It’ll be one of the coldest stretches between now and then that we’ve had in a LONG time. In general; interested to see how this winter ends wrt anomalies on temps. Going to be a shame up in there parts if we end up at 60% to climo snowfall given these temps. 

[alexj7]

From what I remember, CMC was the first I noticed hinting at large amounts of sleet across DC metro, as early as Tuesday night last week. But that’s just one data point.

[Nomz]

I'll wait for Euro AIFS to tell me something. It 100% led the charge on the last storm.

[LordBaltimore]

GFS and Euro suggests at least 5-6 nights where subzero temperatures are a possibility in the DMV. Will be fun when these come into range for high res models

If anyone in the area can get calm wind overhead the bottom could easily fall out

[Maestrobjwa]

42 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’m with you on that window Bob, just told my buddy I think after Feb 6th is when our next “prime” window comes into play. It’ll be one of the coldest stretches between now and then that we’ve had in a LONG time. In general; interested to see how this winter ends wrt anomalies on temps. Going to be a shame up in there parts if we end up at 60% to climo snowfall given these temps. 

Yeah you'd think if next weekend's window was a thing the ops would at least start spitting out some manner of solutions by now.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah you'd think if next weekend's window was a thing the ops would at least start spitting out some manner of solutions by now.

That's kind of what I'm thinking too.  Maybe that clipper-type system around Friday but it's the time after that perhaps that may be good, hopefully!  In fact, yeah it's an ops deterministic, but today's 12Z GFS shows an "incoming" potential at the end of its run at 360-384 hours!!  CMC kind of hints at something too around hour 240 (end of its run).  ECMWF, nothing much in particular but hints of stuff "out there" in time.  Key takeaway for me is, we should have some tracking going on for awhile, and hopefully we'll cash in and score!

[NorthArlington101]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Not too jazzed on next weekend rn. Ridge axis to the west is prob too close and the setup requires near perfection with timing as the window to crawl the coast is super tight.  Time will tell. Beyond that is looking more ripe. Western ridge axis retros and a strong west based NAO block would force NS shortwaves south of us and far enough west for some amplification. Split flow potential as well. I REALLY like this look....

 

Eta: all 3 global ens are lock step. Confidence booster...

 

 

 

 

Modeling consensus is definitely that this misses us off shore. Would rather not wait til 384 so just gonna keep tracking it until it’s off the end. Why not. 

[AlexD1990]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Modeling consensus is definitely that this misses us off shore. Would rather not wait til 384 so just gonna keep tracking it until it’s off the end. Why not. 

Considering it's almost a week out, and this past storm was at this range burying Norfolk, I hold hope.