January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS is a little better....

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO (rain limits accumulations)

[WxUSAF]

A 1 county sized jackpot zone surrounded by a 1-3” region the size of Delaware lol

[Scraff]

Looks like we can score some goods on storm 1. Cool cool. Let’s reel in that appetizer. Storm 2 though—at the end of the 0z Euro—can’t say I’ve ever seen anything like it. Weenie dreams!! Holy F! 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A 1 county sized jackpot zone surrounded by a 1-3” region the size of Delaware lol

What could go wrong?

[Ji]

Looks like we can score some goods on storm 1. Cool cool. Let’s reel in that appetizer. Storm 2 though—at the end of the 0z Euro—can’t say I’ve ever seen anything like it. Weenie dreams!! Holy F! 

Gfs had that fantasy storm too on Jan 25

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs had that fantasy storm too on Jan 25

EPS is hinting at it-

 

Pretty good support for the op run at that range. Classic look at the surface for a big winter storm. 

[mitchnick]

Geps all lit up at the end of its run last night too.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Geps all lit up at the end of its run last night too.

The big ones are sniffed out early- which weenie rule is that again?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The big ones are sniffed out early- which weenie rule is that again?

On par with the weenie rule about not wanting kickers!! 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The big ones are sniffed out early- which weenie rule is that again?

How would I know? 

[CAPE]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

On par with the weenie rule about not wanting kickers!! 

Can we get rid of kickers in football? Its about time- games shouldn't be decided by one dude who cant actually play football.

[stormy]

The models give a shotgun presentation of very little this morning.

Yes, I know that there are hints and sniffs, but nothing to really hone in on.

Ensembles and controls are wandering around in opposition.

The last half of January seems to be an active period and I believe that a focus will develop.

[NorthArlington101]

I feel like we’ve learned a fair bit about the character of this threat last night. GFS and EURO outcomes at 6z really aren’t that far apart, even in terms of distance. Storm has maybe a 6-8” max for those perfectly in its crosshairs but otherwise it’s gonna be pretty standard despite the awesome h5 look. We’re praying for the deform to cash in and missing all of the WAA. Tricky. 

[stormtracker]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

6z NAM at 84hr is much flatter than the 0z GFS at 90hr

I bet you couldn’t wait to post this. 

[dailylurker]

Latest euro run reminds me of that commute disaster about 15 years ago. We got 5" of wet snow in a few hours. That's for the Thursday Friday thing.

[Ji]

The 25th seems to have some long distance legs

[winter_warlock]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

6z NAM at 84hr is much flatter than the 0z GFS at 90hr

Ur always full of good news lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Latest euro run reminds me of that commute disaster about 15 years ago. We got 5" of wet snow in a few hours. That's for the Thursday Friday thing.

Yup, that was "Commutageddon"...Jan. 26, 2011.  I believe that was the one we also called the "PSU Hoffman Storm" in this forum!  There was some snow early in the morning, then a lull with drizzle.  As the ULL came by later in the afternoon, we got heavy sleet (more like chunks of ice falling, it really hurt when it hit your face!) which fairly quickly turned to heavy, wet snow that pasted everything.  I got 8" snow in about 5 hours.  Power went out for a lot of people in that storm with downed power lines and tree limbs.

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

EPS is hinting at it-

 

Pretty good support for the op run at that range. Classic look at the surface for a big winter storm. 

But what do the snow map probabilities show?  

[Eskimo Joe]

16 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Yup, that was "Commutageddon"...Jan. 26, 2011.  I believe that was the one we also called the "PSU Hoffman Storm" in this forum!  There was some snow early in the morning, then a lull with drizzle.  As the ULL came by later in the afternoon, we got heavy sleet (more like chunks of ice falling, it really hurt when it hit your face!) which fairly quickly turned to heavy, wet snow that pasted everything.  I got 8" snow in about 5 hours.  Power went out for a lot of people in that storm with downed power lines and tree limbs.

One of my top 5 events. A colossal forecast bust from DC to Philly. Had almost a foot of snow in Lancaster.

[ravensrule]

21 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Ur always full of good news lol

He is like your ex wife. 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

One of my top 5 events. A colossal forecast bust from DC to Philly. Had almost a foot of snow in Lancaster.

I remember a lot of lightning flashes. I got stuck in a fedex truck on the 495 beltway until 3am lol

[bncho]

lol we've done a complete 180, euro is better than gfs now. i mean, at least we haev the euro on our side and not the shit ass gfs

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

lol we've done a complete 180, euro is better than gfs now. i mean, at least we haev the euro on our side and not the shit ass gfs

Basically said the same thing lol

 

[bncho]

GEFS likes our Jan 15-16 system more

[Terpeast]

On a serious note, SER being muted in 11-15 day ensembles. Sticking with persistence for now. And a little SE ridging ahead won’t hurt if there’s a big one approaching. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Hold up, Im just getting out of bed here. So we are poo pooing the Jan 15 system now, the Cape storm is losing legs, but we are on to a Jan 25 HECS? OK cool, business as usual here. See y'all for 12z suite 

[87storms]

Any thoughts on severe season?

[Terpeast]

Nugget of support for Jan 24-26 potential