January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Mikeymac5306]

57 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I see why no one is talking about the 12Z GFS but it does have a big dog in the 2nd weekend of Jan...so now we wait for the triumphant victory or the agony of defeat.

What about the human drama of weather watching?

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps, as usual, are a miss tonthe north for the 8th/9th.

It looks like it juiced up the clipper for nyd.

[bncho]

12z Euro major winter winter storm Jan 9-10, general 4-8"

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Lock that up...the 12.5 is right over my new house

Get used to disappointment. We are always in the model bullseye here.

[bncho]

It's also vodka cold afterwards. High on Jan 11 is 15F in DC.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z Euro major winter winter storm Jan 9-10, general 4-8"

Damn you just beat me too it. I was too busy looking at the 500mb and surface maps to guess how much we'd get. Tbh I expected a bit more with such a textbook look but the storm moves quick

[stormy]

5 hours ago, dailylurker said:

The Euro outlines the drought in our area really well that run.

And the latest Canadian ensemble maintains the same drought region for the next 10 days:

[Ji]

euro with a fast moving snowstorm in whats suppose to be a blocked pattern

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z Euro major winter winter storm Jan 9-10, general 4-8"

yea thats not going to work for me. In this kind of pattern its gotta be double digits

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

yea thats not going to work for me. In this kind of pattern its gotta be double digits

Never EVER change, Ji. lol

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

The last frame of that animation is absolutely the setup we get our big dogs. Displaced PV with a huge block overtop. And the west coast ridge in perfect position for us to score. We just have to hope that map is correct. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

yea thats not going to work for me. In this kind of pattern its gotta be double digits

4.0-8.0

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro with a fast moving snowstorm in whats suppose to be a blocked pattern

The issue isn't that the pattern isn't blocky as shown by this ridiculous 500mb map

But instead that the southern shortwave which delivers our storm is just barely captured and amplified by the northern ULL. We are genuinely like 12 hours away from a complete nuclear capture scenario with the displaced ULL and the southern energy fully phasing instead of just helping it gain latitude. I mean just look at how close we get to greatness. 

Though arguably the best part about the Euro run is that even after this storm we are still in a great pattern. We lose the Atlantic a bit but still have a great EPO and PNA with an active southern stream. Would be a fun time and great to see the pattern reflected in the OPs.

 

[frd]

13 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Congrats northern jersey?

Tomer Burg    @burgwx

·

1h

 

 

What does this mean for snowstorm prospects in the East Coast?

 

Initially, not much. Notice how we start with the same cold and dry NW flow regime we've been in before. The key is to monitor the upstream evolution, as the Bering Sea block erodes and is likely replaced by a Pacific trough, increasing the chances of western US ridge amplification.

 

The kind of pattern increases the probability of a moderate to major snowstorm vs. climatology in the Mid Atlantic, and potentially southern New England, which would necessitate a well-timed upstream ridge amplification coinciding with downstream confluent flow and a sufficiently cold airmass in the northeast US.

 

While a major snowstorm is never a guarantee, chances of at least one or two in the January 8-25 time frame are higher than average

[WEATHER53]

Just gotta avoid the infamous delay pattern onset . Right now it looks like 1/7-1/10.  If that starts to become 1/15 then 1/20 then we are underway with a problem once again 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If you need a random person online to tell you when to choose optimism, seek help 

Modeled pattern seems reason enough for me to be optimistic anyway.

The next line will be staying patient.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Just gotta avoid the infamous delay pattern onset . Right now it looks like 17-1/10.  If that starts to become 1/15 then 1/20 then we are underway with a problem once again 

just be patient Howard

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

The next line will be staying patient.

We dont need a ton of patience this year.  We've already discussed this in the other sub, please keep up 

Next line is "buckle up", which we are teetering on attm.

[Ji]

the EURO AI just took 18 inches away

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The last few years we have seen the good looks on the models like this and they’ve been head fakes, or they disappear after brief non producing period.  Let’s see if we can actually cash one in. 

[Ji]

AI has too many pieces not complementing each other

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The last few years we have seen the good looks on the models like this and they’ve been head fakes, or they disappear after brief non producing period.  Let’s see if we can actually cash one in. 

Better to be in the game than not.  We have a pattern that looks conducive to snow vs a shit the blinds pattern.  Let’s hope we have a lot of sleepless nights next month (from tracking storms vs utter depression from warm temps/rain ).

[mitchnick]

Eps really lit up.

[87storms]

29 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z Euro major winter winter storm Jan 9-10, general 4-8"

That’s more my style. Cartoppers are played.

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps really lit up.

To my weenie eyes looking at MSLP anomaly maps, chance on ~4th with a low passing to the south and again on ~6th with a coastal popping.

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

As mentioned by other posters the time period after this particular storm signal look to be more promising but I really cant help but like this depiction for the 4th. We have a good amount of vorticity to our south, a block to our north, and surface low pressure across Georgia in a position to bring in both gulf and Atlantic moisture. Of course, as depicted the bowling ball to our north would suppress the storm but for a week out I really can't hate it. We just need to see the trends but as it currently stands it is more than trackable. 

I'm keeping an eye on it. A little too far south on the 12z EPS, but still a week out. Still time for some changes up top.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, CAPE said:

I'm keeping an eye on it. A little too far south on the 12z EPS, but still a week out. Still time for some changes up top.

I'd rather have things be south at this juncture.

[IronTy]

4 hours ago, cbmclean said:

No explanation, but I have to mention that someone posted JB saying he thought a trough would retrograde from the east.  Maybe he was on to something.

Yeah he called it discontinuous retrogression.  I have no idea what that involves.  

[bncho]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps really lit up.

12z EPS is quite similar for Jan 5-9, but much better for that more favorable window that is Jan 10 onward

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'd rather have things be south at this juncture.

I tend to agree, but this is a pretty suppressive look as modeled. Probably not the final outcome 6-7 days out though.