January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the EPS is correct, after 1/20 it looks like a gradient pattern sets up and gradient patterns in Nina’s very highly favor New England 

You are his death star.  Just orbit around him to extinguish any flame of hope that happens to ignite-

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully it looks more like this than a cutter 

 

TBH, I'll take a cutter over 18 and windy at this point.

[CoastalWx]

I want synoptic sleet and S+ from OES again. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh it’s there. Might get interrupted briefly by a nice cutter but it’s there. We’ll finish January BN on temps unless there is a huge shift in guidance post-weekend. 

Saw an easily could be rain post and got frightened 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Saw an easily could be rain post and got frightened 

Look for someone to hold you

[Kitz Craver]

ACATT could easily be on the wrong side. Looks like an up and in type gradient to me 

[Damage In Tolland]

He got the #drought in there 

 

[ineedsnow]

this guy is such a tool 

Mark Margavage

 

@MeteoMark

·

21m

 

 

@sophieraiin

I see a third option here... Move in with me in Pennsylvania. We have Amish but no sin tax. Freedom! You miss every shot you don't take.

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

ACATT could easily be on the wrong side. Looks like an up and in type gradient to me 

gfs doesn't have any system tracking underneath SNE. that would be an issue; would rather have a few suppressed systems and wait for the eventual tics north

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

gfs doesn't have any system tracking underneath SNE. that would be an issue; would rather have a few suppressed systems and wait for the eventual tics north

Hasn’t all season, lows to the north with SW flows out ahead for the most part

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

gfs doesn't have any system tracking underneath SNE. that would be an issue; would rather have a few suppressed systems and wait for the eventual tics north

No, at this point I'd rather the opposite. I'm DONE with cold and dry...I don't care if it rains, at least it's not 0 degree WCs.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

This is just 100% incorrect. 

First sentence was spot on, though the 7th was halfway between 6th and 8th.  Temps here:
1-6:     18  -2
7-12:   35  19
The 7-12 "norms" are 1.4° lower than 1-6, making the mild-up even greater.

[wxsniss]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The funny part is it never corrects itself. I’ve seen countless threats that had interference but it was overcome either due to vort strength or one of the shortwaves changed slightly. But we’ve never trended away from it recently. 

I'm in awe of the absolute clinic (interference and otherwise) by which SNE is missing significant snowfall, especially now in a BN cold stretch...

For 15-16th and 18-19th in particular, strength of the vort on guidance a few days ago seemed like it would overcome any inteference issues to at least graze (15-16th) or cut (18-19th) 

A corollary: there are many more routes to having no event than there are for an event to materialize.

I did this last year and was curious how it extrapolates this year... I charted 4-year rolling average snowfall at KBOS. Obviously 2025-2026 is not over, so for February and March I just used historic means (* indicates extrapolation from historic means for those 2 months).

Look how off the charts this 4 year stretch has been... well below 2 standard deviations:

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, at this point I'd rather the opposite. I'm DONE with cold and dry...I don't care if it rains, at least it's not 0 degree WCs.

Not to mention we’ve had several systems that were initially amped get crunched SE and whiffs or something less impressive…even including the “cutter” this past weekend which ended up a sheared out piece of trash with lots of CAD. 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

For the very little it’s worth bc the GFS/GEFS is on everyone’s shit list including mine.. GEFS have about 25% of its members that turn that wave into a snowstorm here Sunday PM/Monday AM

Yeah about 7/30 have a moderate/strong hit, so its showing up on the mean like this

(24-hr)

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If the EPS is correct, after 1/20 it looks like a gradient pattern sets up and gradient patterns in Nina’s very highly favor New England 

It looks pretty transient to me.  I do think there is a window there 1/20-1/23 or so where a storm likely happens but right after that we continue to see the 3 ensembles all more or less go back to a +PNA look again or a hybrid -EPO/+PNA look that may be briefly suppressive.  I think 1/24-1/29 may favor the MA/SE.  After that might be a 2 week window up this way.  I am now becoming more confident we carry this ti 2/10-2/15.

[das]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cirrus In Tolland

NoCoastal Wx

Ooo, ooo, do me!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Here’s the biggest problem in my view with regards to where we stand and where we’re going.

We’re going to be creeping into late Jan with well below average snowfall. Many in the single digits from Boston to Providence and SE (some places on the cape may be better).

At this point, you’ll need anomalous positive departures to get to average.

People can say “there is still time” and while true, you are increasingly relying on exotic outcomes (like 2013, 2015) to produce that type of snowfall.

Again, unless you are banking on that type of thing, if we enter late Jan well below normal, a sub par season is pretty much a lock.

[Typhoon Tip]

48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not to mention we’ve had several systems that were initially amped get crunched SE and whiffs or something less impressive…even including the “cutter” this past weekend which ended up a sheared out piece of trash with lots of CAD. 

15/16th is still there...  in fact, it's actually the most amp of all this shit...  the problem, not for us.

upstate NY to western QUE gets a moderate snow with strong windy system as a low forms over SE NY and a goes down to 990 or so as it cuts west of us.  

Meteorologically, that's a success

Winter weather dorks like us end up with sort butts.  Obviously this factor here does not lend to recognition extended to the Meteorologists.   

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

if we enter late Jan well below normal, a sub par season is pretty much a lock.

But that doesn’t mean there can’t be region-wide fun winter events though still to come too.

[eduggs]

31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Here’s the biggest problem in my view with regards to where we stand and where we’re going.

We’re going to be creeping into late Jan with well below average snowfall. Many in the single digits from Boston to Providence and SE (some places on the cape may be better).

At this point, you’ll need anomalous positive departures to get to average.

People can say “there is still time” and while true, you are increasingly relying on exotic outcomes (like 2013, 2015) to produce that type of snowfall.

Again, unless you are banking on that type of thing, if we enter late Jan well below normal, a sub par season is pretty much a lock.

I can't speak for everyone but I suspect if asked today, most would be happy with an average Feb & March even if they finished below normal for the season.

[ineedsnow]

ICON for Sunday

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that was a pretty decent trend toward those GEFS members on the icon. Want to see euro get more enthused though. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I’ve yet to trust the ICON 

[Kitz Craver]

Yup, not gonna bite on that ICON even if it’s a nod to the GEFS

[Kitz Craver]

We’ve had a ton of mid-range rug pulls so…

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’ve yet to trust the ICON 

Icon is doing better than the gfs

[Damage In Tolland]

Rains to S Wey?

[SouthCoastMA]

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’ve yet to trust the ICON 

It latched on to the storm fail on 1/15-1/16 before the GFS did. I guess that's not saying much