40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:49 PM 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, that works... ( hint, I'm consummately having to run back along these posts and tweak edit words in and out like that. ) not that any would notice. Kind of like how the PNA last January was biased west, off of the west coast, so on paper it looked good...but found a way to bone us. Seems like every time mother nature throws us a bone, it's a cookie laced with cyanide.....poison pill decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted Monday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:52 PM 38 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Well, whenever people (rightfully) point out that we squandered a pretty anomalous cold December, people jump in to tell us how 3 towns in SW CT are above normal for snowfall. Ill tell you this though, they won’t be two weeks from now Nothing to look forward to weather wise in the forseeable future. We return to cold next week; at least that we know. But storminess? The US is pretty much void of any activity. I haven’t seen this even in ratter winters for us. Just warm and dry in central US and the west and then cold and dry in the east. Remarkable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:54 PM 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kind of like how the PNA last January was biased west, off of the west coast, so on paper it looked good...but found a way to bone us. Seems like every time mother nature throws us a bone, it's a cookie laced with cyanide.....poison pill decade. the other thing is when the MJO coherence drops I don't believe it's forcibly augmenting patterns - it's ability to do so is damped along with it. The wave does it's magic because it ignites convection that's move along and release latent heat ...that than disperses into the westerlies and contributes to planetary wave modulation ( strength/resonance/position in space ), which we observe in pattern biases ... If the wave is damped, the convection falters, no flux. I'm been a proponent for years that the MJO has this "receptive" requirement. There are times when the hemisphere is in destructive interference. There are times when it is constructive. I mean this is academic really. Even the ENSOs/atmospheric coupled states can be either positive or negatively interfering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Monday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:57 PM There really is nothing on the horizon during prime winter weeks, guess we can’t complain tho with the great December we all had 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTBFFH1905 Posted Monday at 03:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:07 PM 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: There really is nothing on the horizon during prime winter weeks, guess we can’t complain tho with the great December we all had No complaints from North Central CT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted Monday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:08 PM 10 minutes ago, qg_omega said: There really is nothing on the horizon during prime winter weeks, guess we can’t complain tho with the great December we all had lol. Again, minus the “great” part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Monday at 03:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:11 PM 17 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: Nothing to look forward to weather wise in the forseeable future. We return to cold next week; at least that we know. But storminess? The US is pretty much void of any activity. I haven’t seen this even in ratter winters for us. Just warm and dry in central US and the west and then cold and dry in the east. Remarkable The ongoing drought across a good part of the US was under played heading into late fall and the winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted Monday at 03:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:14 PM 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The ongoing drought across a good part of the US was under played heading into late fall and the winter.. Yeah, dry begets dry and snow begets snow etc. The appearance of only one coastal storm during fall doesn't lend credence to coastal storms during the winter either. The ongoing warmth in the west and central US is more damaging then most of us are letting on I believe. Prevents any substantial storminess and reduces the chances of snowstorms coming from our south and west. Instead, we're reliant on clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Monday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:19 PM Just now, Krs4Lfe said: Yeah, dry begets dry and snow begets snow etc. The appearance of only one coastal storm during fall doesn't lend credence to coastal storms during the winter either. The ongoing warmth in the west and central US is more damaging then most of us are letting on I believe. Prevents any substantial storminess and reduces the chances of snowstorms coming from our south and west. Instead, we're reliant on clippers. Prior to last winter a couple of Boston on air Mets posted graphics showing Boston's snowfall totals after dry falls and/or while experiencing a drought...it wasn't pretty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted Monday at 03:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:26 PM 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Prior to last winter a couple of Boston on air Mets posted graphics showing Boston's snowfall totals after dry falls and/or while experiencing a drought...it wasn't pretty... I'd expect that to play out pretty well here. It looks like the northern stream will continue to outpace the southern stream and that fast flow pretty much ruins any chance of those amplified solutions actually coming to fruition. While the ENSO state in late January and February appears to mirror 2013-2014, the winter weather outcome will likely be polar opposites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:30 PM right on schedule ( then ) the Pac modulation/ collapse of the previous paradigm completes. That's opening the door to the cage of suppression, and out rushes the MJO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Monday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:37 PM So I guess we suppress, and dry and cold going forward after the thaw….congrats DC and Virginia again? Or maybe more clippers? Good to see the NYC folks in here telling us we won’t see much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:42 PM -2.2°F was the low here, Lets see if we can squeeze out 3-5" over the next couple days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Monday at 03:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:45 PM 1 minute ago, dryslot said: -2.2°F was the low here, Lets see if we can squeeze out 3-5" over the next couple days. Nice light snow event next 24 hrs? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 03:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:45 PM 3 hours ago, SJonesWX said: i am as ACATT as they come, but not this week. I really need to get some temps above freezing, as my driveway is still glare ice from the shit last week, whatever day that was. I've been able to get away without having to sand/salt it, but it is terrifying walking on it right now. i took a little digger yesterday as I was cleaning the nuisance 1/2" off it (with the hope that the sun would melt it a bit). So far all that the sun is doing is melting the top layer just enough so it melts then refreezes to an even smoother surface then it was. Yup skating rink here too, Maybe we can melt it out late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:49 PM Just now, powderfreak said: Nice light snow event next 24 hrs? 1-2" there, Then another 1-3" right behind that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Monday at 03:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:54 PM 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So I guess we suppress, and dry and cold going forward after the thaw….congrats DC and Virginia again? Or maybe more clippers? Good to see the NYC folks in here telling us we won’t see much. Ehh.. we hold out and hope. You and I ( and many others ) know that it takes one change with a storm potential to bring back all the weenies from the grave. Something will give. Patience I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:55 PM 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: right on schedule ( then ) the Pac modulation/ collapse of the previous paradigm completes. That's opening the door to the cage of suppression, and out rushes the MJO My guess is phase 7 will do...Jan 23-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted Monday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:55 PM At least the 80’s had Reagan, Saturday morning cartoons and Sam Kinison. All fun for different reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 03:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:56 PM 2 hours ago, radarman said: Ice fishermen reporting 8-12" depths in general. Probably more in the cold spots. I'd have to think the ponds even in eastern MA would be plenty safe, but who knows these days. It's like night and day, in temps and mindset. I saw a pic of 16" of ice on Mooshead yesteday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:01 PM 15 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Nice light snow event next 24 hrs? I leave and things get active up there again lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Monday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:04 PM 8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Ehh.. we hold out and hope. You and I ( and many others ) know that it takes one change with a storm potential to bring back all the weenies from the grave. Something will give. Patience I guess. Right now at 14” for the season to date…not too shabby. Hope we can pick up some more after this week. But whatever. First world problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:04 PM Going by that MJO progression, we should pop a steep gradient with a ridge over the south and lower heights in the EPO domain mid month.... Followed by a visit from the PV in SE Canada in conjunction with a PNA ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Monday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:06 PM That doesn’t sound all that bad if that’s the case. Let’s take our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Monday at 04:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:12 PM pretty big change on the 12z GFS for the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted Monday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:14 PM Just now, ineedsnow said: pretty big change on the 12z GFS for the weekend To what? This Or this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted Monday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:14 PM 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: pretty big change on the 12z GFS for the weekend Very dramatic difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Monday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:15 PM 30 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Nice light snow event next 24 hrs? Including thru Wednesday I’m thinking 3-6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:15 PM 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: pretty big change on the 12z GFS for the weekend Beer changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Monday at 04:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:17 PM 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: pretty big change on the 12z GFS for the weekend Yup that wave that passes to our NW fri PM is delivering a little CAA now ahead of the next one Sat. So that gradient gets shunted south. That’s even frozen up here on Sat now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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