January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[HoarfrostHubb]

35 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The Pivotal free site now has Euro Skynet ensembles with the continental view.  BTW, after about the 11th or so...they look tasty.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The Pivotal free site now has Euro Skynet ensembles with the continental view.  BTW, after about the 11th or so...they look tasty.

[weatherwiz]

That almost looks too perfect  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That almost looks too perfect  

 

not sure where that poster's getting 'continental flow' out of that 'after the 11th'

but what does that mean, 'continental flow'? 

anyway, those trough nadirs are hitting a min as the 15th is arriving.  classical interpretation would suggest there's a storm nested in that time range - but ... i suspect if there is, we need to get past the 7th .. 8th or so before that materializes.  

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not sure where that poster's getting 'continental flow' out of that 'after the 11th'

but what does that mean, 'continental flow'? 

I think you misread, he said continental view, not continental flow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I think you misread, he said continental view, not continental flow. 

ah, gotcha

[George001]

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to mention ( but will anyway ...), we've 'graduated' into a climate era where the so called 'torches,'  I'd argue even in the subjective sense, make 50s a lot easier to do than they were 30 years ago under the same synoptic regimes. 

Tell ya what ... if folks have an problem with that, leave the word climate out of it and just say that for whatever reason which no one knows any idea why ..whenever it warms up in winter it makes it above 55 more often than it ever used to.

Either way, if given any excuse to do so ... there's a fair probability that 40s will end up being underselling.  So Kevin, you could see 55 ... but it would be overachieving on what forecasters think is possible.  Because that's the other headache, over achieving is not ever modeled.   Yet it keeps happening.  I dunno ... I'd say you're playin with the kids college tuition if you're gamblin the temp down during the warm phase of all these changes.

People shouldn’t have a problem with reality. 

[Great Snow 1717]

20 minutes ago, George001 said:

People shouldn’t have a problem with reality. 

I agree but some people here have had a problem with reality for a LONG TIME....

[kdxken]

53 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Only where the snow is gone.  Otherwise, the small rodents harboring the little beasts will be snug under the pack, safe from owls and other raptors.

That's when coyotes prove their worth.

[ineedsnow]

We 18z ICON 

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro drops an inch of fluff 

[weathafella]

Euro isn’t out yet unless you mean 12z.

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The chant of "RAAAATTERRRR, RAAAATTERRR, RAAAATTERRR!" rains down from the EMA crew

[DavisStraight]

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro drops an inch of fluff 

CMC doesn't look too bad for your area.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro isn’t out yet unless you mean 12z.

12z

[dendrite]

53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro drops an inch of fluff 

 

[dendrite]

3k looked good

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3k looked good

Cuz 60 hour NAMS are so accurate .  But ya, not expecting anything either. 

[Torch Tiger]

[kdxken]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Cuz 60 hour NAMS are so accurate .  But ya, not expecting anything either. 

Negative Nelly.

[tavwtby]

historically, our best timeframe for hecs, or just coastal storms in general, has been the last couple weeks of January into the first couple weeks of February...and then again around the ides of March...if we can squeeze out some bonus snows before and after that period and hope for a nice bomb in between, we can maybe reach climo avg for the first time in years in SNE...and elsewhere for that matter... here's to wishcasting for the new year! also, another year without a storm on my birthday tomorrow so I digress.

[ineedsnow]

We Euro AI for midweek 

[CoastalWx]

Euro AIfS have been the most skillful on paper. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AIfS have been the most skillful on paper. 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

AIFS has like 5 snow events rt 2 north.. no true cutters through day 15 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

AIFS has like 5 snow events rt 2 north.. no true cutters through day 15 

Mixed south?

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mixed south?

Rain 

[Modfan2]

Down to 13F so far, forecasted low of 13F so how low do we go?

[ineedsnow]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

AIFS has like 5 snow events rt 2 north.. no true cutters through day 15 

hoping all of SNE can pick up something

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

hoping all of SNE can pick up something

Looks too warm.