January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[qg_omega]

On 12/29/2025 at 1:43 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

all three models and their ensembles have the highly anomalous block along with the Pacific trough briefly pumping the PNA... the 6-8th holds legit potential for a large coastal storm given all of the synoptic components involved 

Luckily no one actually bought into this massive retrograding west based block

[mahk_webstah]

59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully we actually get the EPO poleward like that. If so, it’s a decently cold look but also not suppressed…to support your analysis of it being a more storm-friendly pattern here. It is a bit riskier with the SE ridge lurking, but we have been through enough of these patterns to know that sometimes you need to play with fire to get the goods. 

That’s a beautiful pattern for up here

[kdxken]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Here we go…been the tenor. 

One month of winter already down with nothing to show. Oh well, another ratter...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully we actually get the EPO poleward like that. If so, it’s a decently cold look but also not suppressed…to support your analysis of it being a more storm-friendly pattern here. It is a bit riskier with the SE ridge lurking, but we have been through enough of these patterns to know that sometimes you need to play with fire to get the goods. 

Even if a storm cuts in that pattern, a lot of us are still probably getting front enders that will be more fruitful than these clippers that are drier than a nun's no-no given the antecedent airmass.

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

That’s a beautiful pattern for up here

Probably from like Salem, NH northward.

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

BAM weather vid on YouTube is great.

His constant inhaling of snot was annoying.

[moneypitmike]

Good news/bad news

Feeling a little like Phillip Rivers as I've been called out retirement.  On the other hand, this requires me to be holding on to Pit 2 for at least a couple more years.   

Maine winters and Mattapoisett summers--things could be worse.  Now that I think of it, if things play out well for Mattapoisett tonight, we might be getting close to Ray.   j/k

[weathafella]

Gefs and geps concur with each other while the euro is a bit different in the long range.  Either way, all have a cold reload quickly.  I sure hope something comes out of the sky.  Boring as hell right now.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Gefs and geps concur with each other while the euro is a bit different in the long range.  Either way, all have a cold reload quickly.  I sure hope something comes out of the sky.  Boring as hell right now.

As Tippy and Will alluded .. there may not be much of a mild up at all

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As Tippy and Will alluded .. there may not be much of a mild up at all

Well we’ll probably have 1-2 cutters to mild it up but it doesn’t look prolonged or consequential.  Either way outside of the cutters it’s boring.  Dinkleshit snow dustings in the middle of the night don’t do it for me.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well we’ll probably have 1-2 cutters to mild it up but it doesn’t look prolonged or consequential.  Either way outside of the cutters it’s boring.  Dinkleshit snow dustings in the middle of the night don’t do it for me.

Certainly 1-3/2-4 every couple days are more them dustings and make it very wintry . I prefer these over swfe 

[moneypitmike]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Certainly 1-3/2-4 every couple days are more them dustings and make it very wintry . I prefer these over swfe 

You like your sleet/zr on the SWFE to add heft to your pack.

[rimetree]

Op run and all but that GFS run hints at some overrunning chances

[Sey-Mour Snow]

…..

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

You like your sleet/zr on the SWFE to add heft to your pack.

There’s too much worry about rain. I don’t need that stress 

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

…..

i don't know how much we can really move this closer given the lead time, but it's getting a bit precarious

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don't know how much we can really move this closer given the lead time, but it's getting a bit precarious

Here’s the GIF, ya it’s close .. it’s still 72-84 out .. would like to see ensembles at 00z jump onboard with some hits 

[weathafella]

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Certainly 1-3/2-4 every couple days are more them dustings and make it very wintry . I prefer these over swfe 

Not modeled and likely won’t happen.  

[The 4 Seasons]

Stranger things have happened, ive seen it before. Jan 7th 2017 is a good example that was a suppressed whiff way off shore that came NW every run inside of 108hrs. 

But this needs a lot more work than even that storm, and that was a lot to ask. 

Worth watching thats about it, ensembles need to jump on board with not just NW ticks but some hits as well. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7-2017

GFS trend inside of 108 and it kept going 

[Damage In Tolland]

37 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Not modeled and likely won’t happen.  

Tonight / Sunday night into Monday / Mid week 

It is 

[weathafella]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tonight / Sunday night into Monday / Mid week 

It is 

Show me where 2-4 is modeled outside of a few locations and don’t include NNE.

tonight 1-2 as a long shot.  Sunday night flurries.  Mid week is 7 days away.  Why would you want a this with very little water in the snow and as such much more meltable vs  a meaty SWFE?

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Show me where 2-4 is modeled outside of a few locations and don’t include NNE.

tonight 1-2 as a long shot.  Sunday night flurries.  Mid week is 7 days away.  Why would you want a this with very little water in the snow and as such much more meltable vs  a meaty SWFE?

Well tonight we are getting different amounts . 
 

Trends on models are bringing s stream in for at minimum another advisory event like tonight 

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

One month of winter already down with nothing to show. Oh well, another ratter...

So that’s what those snow ens charts look like when Steve doesn’t post them.

[The 4 Seasons]

Small bumps NW on the EPS..

[ORH_wxman]

Woulda been a real Bomb if we had a bit more PNA ridging. 

[Diggiebot]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Woulda been a real Bomb if we had a bit more PNA ridging. 

A day late and a dollar short!?!

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Small bumps NW on the EPS..

Running out of time though unfortunately 

[Kitz Craver]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So that’s what those snow ens charts look like when Steve doesn’t post them.

Where are all the pretty pinks and purples?

[Snowcrazed71]

Listen guys.... No matter what happens with the Weather, if life has taught me one thing, its how greatful I am for what I have. Maybe we get our big Winter this year, or maybe we get our big Storm this year ( or maybe neither ). But, it will happen again. 

What I do want to say is Happy New Year to all you Weather geeks in here. I don't keep coming back here because I have to... I do because I'm just another weather geek just like the rest of you. Thanks guys... And here's to what we all hope is a great rest of the Winter season of 2026! 

[George001]

30 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Small bumps NW on the EPS..

I’m keeping expectations low, but definitely going to keep an eye on this one the next couple of days.