January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Huge system 

Regular gfs is flat 

But way better 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

36 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Gfs Ai thingy says snow to ice storm than back to snow next weekends big system!

Don't start a thread yet, I'm begging you. 

[Stormlover74]

Ukie looking amazing. 6 to 12 not even considering ratios

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie looking amazing. 6 to 12 not even considering ratios

 

[ravensrule]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie looking amazing. 6 to 12 not even considering ratios

[Tatamy]

Next weekend.  GEFS is a work in progress.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

What’s left on the driveway is a crunchy immovable glacier, looks and feels like real winter again. 18F overnight low. 2 inches measured on a truck bed, bit less on blacktop / walkway. Not bad at all, looking ahead to what seems to be real cold coming our way and hopefully storm chances that aren’t squashed to Georgia. 

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Next weekend.  GEFS is a work in progress.

 

Ai Euro and AI GFS continue to show a huge snowstorm . Keep the gfs there until a day before. 

[EasternLI]

What a sweet looking loop this is. Notice at the end also how the +PNA heights are re-firing as the Aleutian/Dateline low amplifies. No real red flags from the MJO this time IMHO. Let's see if we can put a nice little run together. I think there's plenty of tracking that lies ahead.

[wdrag]

PLEASE USE with caution--- others here prior to this have already spoken, but there is hope here for a pretty good powder snowstorm next weekend... very cold air in advance... depends on the confluence zone at 5H (for now imo think we' re on the north edge of 4+ NYC)  

AI's through 06z/19 cycles are north of the following probabilistic for this coming weekend: Think (just my opinion) it only a matter of a day or so that the NWS WPC advertises a probable major winter storm in the eastern-southern USA.

Since our recent AI communication w Bluewave and others prior flagging me on AI better performance... not always best but needs stronger weighting consideration, even in its relative modeling infancy.  The MAPS below are self explanatory for this coming weekend. 

One is MAJOR impact... VERY-VERY low probs right now PA/NJ/LI. The other is moderate (max prob axis south of Mason-Dixon).. and this is 5-6 day in advance.

Enjoy your snow cover... and coming imo,  possible infrastructure impact coldest air-- since Jan 19?

 

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ai Euro and AI GFS continue to show a huge snowstorm . Keep the gfs there until a day before. 

Very consistent 

[Neblizzard]

14 minutes ago, wdrag said:

PLEASE USE with caution--- others here prior to this have already spoken, but there is hope here for a pretty good powder snowstorm next weekend... very cold air in advance... depends on the confluence zone at 5H (for now imo think we' re on the north edge of 4+ NYC)  

AI's through 06z/19 cycles are north of the following probabilistic for this coming weekend: Think (just my opinion) it only a matter of a day or so that the NWS WPC advertises a probable major winter storm in the eastern-southern USA.

Since our recent AI communication w Bluewave and others prior flagging me on AI better performance... not always best but needs stronger weighting consideration, even in its relative modeling infancy.  The MAPS below are self explanatory for this coming weekend. 

One is MAJOR impact... VERY-VERY low probs right now PA/NJ/LI. The other is moderate (max prob axis south of Mason-Dixon).. and this is 5-6 day in advance.

Enjoy your snow cover... and coming imo,  possible infrastructure impact coldest air-- since Jan 19?

 

Thank you for posting Walt.  Hope you’re feeling well, please don’t give up on us.   

[bluewave]

The EC-AIFS single skill data available online is the leader through 120 hrs. I have seen the EPS-AIFS data through day 10 and it slightly edges out the regular EPS. But it’s still close.

I have noticed the single EC-AIFS show volatility beyond 120 hrs here like the other guidance in regard to storm tracks.

This is one situation that we actually want a stronger Southeast ridge so the best overrunning occurs closer to our area.

But the storm is still modeled beyond the best 120hr range so we are just going to have to take a wait and see approach.

The Euro following the upgrade around 2014 had been too suppressed with East Coast storm systems. With the GFS becoming very volatile since its upgrade in 2019. 
 

EC-AIFS better Southeast ridge

Regular Euro weaker Southeast ridge. 
 

 

[EastonSN+]

Big dip in the AO. Hoping not too much.

[EastonSN+]

NAO dipping as well.

[EastonSN+]

Phase 8

Neg AO

Neg NAO

Positive PNA

[MJO812]

We are going to have

Phase 8 MJO
Slightly negative NAO
Deeply negative AO
Positive PNA

[SACRUS]

 

20 / 14  a total of 5.4 from the 36 hour affair 0.34 LE.  Cold to hold overall and outside of Thu surge to the mid/upper 40s it look mainy at or sub freezing through the 29th.  The much discussed WAA/overrunning threat 1/25 or a bit earlier.  Deep cold (coldest potentially since - we'll see)  1/20, 1/24-1/25 , 1/26 - 1/29.  The parallels to 94 continue not exact but clear parallels.

 

 

[NEG NAO]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We are going to have

Phase 8 MJO
Slightly negative NAO
Deeply negative AO
Positive PNA

 the most important factor is how these indexes and their strength is going to affect the path of the storms across the country regarding the strength and position of various pressure systems.......

[wxman]

One would think the AI models would excel in a situation like this.  I think the conventional wisdom that overrunning systems generally end up north of where originally modeled is the type of thing the AI models would "know" from historical data, which the models incorporate.  OTOH, if this is the "rare" time the physics-based models are correct, the AI versions will have egg on their face.  

[the_other_guy]

Too far out guys. Wait til Wed to start getting excited.

Just going by my own unscientific observation: when this forum starts tracking 7 days out like its 2 days out, it never works out as planned.

 

 

[JustinRP37]

This weekend was absolutely amazing. Reminds me of winters of childhood. It was a long duration snowfall that dropped a good amount of snow. I feel like in the past decade when we get snow it is all much quicker and heavier. This was a nice steady snowfall. Looking ahead it looks great! 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

This weekend was absolutely amazing. Reminds me of winters of childhood. It was a long duration snowfall that dropped a good amount of snow. I feel like in the past decade when we get snow it is all much quicker and heavier. This was a nice steady snowfall. Looking ahead it looks great! 

i'm hoping this weekend we get the big dumping that i've been waiting for all year! 

[JustinRP37]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm hoping this weekend we get the big dumping that i've been waiting for all year! 

You mean for the past 5-7 years has. My son hasn’t seen a “big dumping” in his life. He is 7! Fingers crossed. I showed him pictures of our big blizzards and he got so excited. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

You mean for the past 5-7 years has. My son hasn’t seen a “big dumping” in his life. He is 7! Fingers crossed. I showed him pictures of our big blizzards and he got so excited. 

we need like a 20 inch dumping followed by another 6-12 so we can have some type of snow cover for longer than 4 weeks

[ForestHillWx]

Not sure where you all live, but it’s been a cold winter with decent snow pack in spurts out this way, but for the week long mild-up. 

There’s easily 6” on the ground and it was 9 this morning when I went out to start shoveling again.  

[Monty]

14 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

This weekend was absolutely amazing. Reminds me of winters of childhood. It was a long duration snowfall that dropped a good amount of snow. I feel like in the past decade when we get snow it is all much quicker and heavier. This was a nice steady snowfall. Looking ahead it looks great! 

Totally. Feb could torch and I'd grade this winter B-

This has been lovely. 

[EastonSN+]

29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

 the most important factor is how these indexes and their strength is going to affect the path of the storms across the country regarding the strength and position of various pressure systems.......

The AO is a little too much as currently depicted. However, the PNA will have a quick dip which could help pump the SE ridge enough.

[TJW014]

Could be looking at the first back-to-back winters (in at least my 24 year old memory) where Barnegat Bay completely freezes over. 

Last year we had ice 6" thick, enough to get the ice boats out for some racing for the first time since 2018. 

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The AO is a little too much as currently depicted. However, the PNA will have a quick dip which could help pump the SE ridge enough.

its not going to take much liquid equivalent over the weekend to create a SECS or MECS because temps in the single digits and or teens during the precip will cause very high snowfall ratios