January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Huge system 

Regular gfs is flat 

But way better 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

36 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Gfs Ai thingy says snow to ice storm than back to snow next weekends big system!

Don't start a thread yet, I'm begging you. 

[Stormlover74]

Ukie looking amazing. 6 to 12 not even considering ratios

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie looking amazing. 6 to 12 not even considering ratios

 

[ravensrule]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie looking amazing. 6 to 12 not even considering ratios

[Tatamy]

Next weekend.  GEFS is a work in progress.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

What’s left on the driveway is a crunchy immovable glacier, looks and feels like real winter again. 18F overnight low. 2 inches measured on a truck bed, bit less on blacktop / walkway. Not bad at all, looking ahead to what seems to be real cold coming our way and hopefully storm chances that aren’t squashed to Georgia. 

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Next weekend.  GEFS is a work in progress.

 

Ai Euro and AI GFS continue to show a huge snowstorm . Keep the gfs there until a day before. 

[EasternLI]

What a sweet looking loop this is. Notice at the end also how the +PNA heights are re-firing as the Aleutian/Dateline low amplifies. No real red flags from the MJO this time IMHO. Let's see if we can put a nice little run together. I think there's plenty of tracking that lies ahead.

[wdrag]

PLEASE USE with caution--- others here prior to this have already spoken, but there is hope here for a pretty good powder snowstorm next weekend... very cold air in advance... depends on the confluence zone at 5H (for now imo think we' re on the north edge of 4+ NYC)  

AI's through 06z/19 cycles are north of the following probabilistic for this coming weekend: Think (just my opinion) it only a matter of a day or so that the NWS WPC advertises a probable major winter storm in the eastern-southern USA.

Since our recent AI communication w Bluewave and others prior flagging me on AI better performance... not always best but needs stronger weighting consideration, even in its relative modeling infancy.  The MAPS below are self explanatory for this coming weekend. 

One is MAJOR impact... VERY-VERY low probs right now PA/NJ/LI. The other is moderate (max prob axis south of Mason-Dixon).. and this is 5-6 day in advance.

Enjoy your snow cover... and coming imo,  possible infrastructure impact coldest air-- since Jan 19?

 

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ai Euro and AI GFS continue to show a huge snowstorm . Keep the gfs there until a day before. 

Very consistent 

[Neblizzard]

14 minutes ago, wdrag said:

PLEASE USE with caution--- others here prior to this have already spoken, but there is hope here for a pretty good powder snowstorm next weekend... very cold air in advance... depends on the confluence zone at 5H (for now imo think we' re on the north edge of 4+ NYC)  

AI's through 06z/19 cycles are north of the following probabilistic for this coming weekend: Think (just my opinion) it only a matter of a day or so that the NWS WPC advertises a probable major winter storm in the eastern-southern USA.

Since our recent AI communication w Bluewave and others prior flagging me on AI better performance... not always best but needs stronger weighting consideration, even in its relative modeling infancy.  The MAPS below are self explanatory for this coming weekend. 

One is MAJOR impact... VERY-VERY low probs right now PA/NJ/LI. The other is moderate (max prob axis south of Mason-Dixon).. and this is 5-6 day in advance.

Enjoy your snow cover... and coming imo,  possible infrastructure impact coldest air-- since Jan 19?

 

Thank you for posting Walt.  Hope you’re feeling well, please don’t give up on us.   

[bluewave]

The EC-AIFS single skill data available online is the leader through 120 hrs. I have seen the EPS-AIFS data through day 10 and it slightly edges out the regular EPS. But it’s still close.

I have noticed the single EC-AIFS show volatility beyond 120 hrs here like the other guidance in regard to storm tracks.

This is one situation that we actually want a stronger Southeast ridge so the best overrunning occurs closer to our area.

But the storm is still modeled beyond the best 120hr range so we are just going to have to take a wait and see approach.

The Euro following the upgrade around 2014 had been too suppressed with East Coast storm systems. With the GFS becoming very volatile since its upgrade in 2019. 
 

EC-AIFS better Southeast ridge

Regular Euro weaker Southeast ridge. 
 

 

[EastonSN+]

Big dip in the AO. Hoping not too much.

[EastonSN+]

NAO dipping as well.

[EastonSN+]

Phase 8

Neg AO

Neg NAO

Positive PNA

[MJO812]

We are going to have

Phase 8 MJO
Slightly negative NAO
Deeply negative AO
Positive PNA