26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[kdxken]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It did so I had to stick my hand in the toilet.

Enjoy the e coli for Christmas.

[CoastalWx]

I’ll sell 10-15+. 

[EastonSN+]

Updated map

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll sell 10-15+. 

I could see locally 8-10” jack somewhere that gets lucky 

[ineedsnow]

15z SREFS coming in NE

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

15z SREFS coming in NE

Yikes.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I could see locally 8-10” jack somewhere that gets lucky 

Yep 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yikes.

Actually it was better west and east. Basically just expanded.

[ineedsnow]

[EastonSN+]

[dendrite]

SREFs…for when desperate times call for desperate measures. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dendrite said:

SREFs…for when desperate times call for desperate measures. 

It is close in though 

[CTSkywarn]

New Haven county went straight to warning too....

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

It is close in though 

They’re still barely usable.  Besides, 15z per my understanding uses 12z initialization.

[H2Otown_WX]

41 minutes ago, WinterSnow said:

Hm... Bristol's forecast seems more in line with the Warning criteria, not Advisory, but I guess that's what I get for living on the far western end of Hartford county, the next county over is a Warning, while the bulk of Hartford county isn't predicted to get much.

Still, whether it's an Advisory or a Warning, forecasts are often wildly wrong and I'll be happy if we even get 3 inches, to be honest.

But if I can get that 6, that'd be great! It is my birthday storm, after all!

Should be good for 5" there I would think. Depending which side of Bristol you're on since the cutoff may setup nearby or perhaps not with a couple more tics NE.

[H2Otown_WX]

Are ratios really going to be that great? I haven't looked at soundings it seems like Kuchera is just cold surface temp = high ratios which we all know doesn't always work out.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Are ratios really going to be that great? I haven't looked at soundings it seems like Kuchera is just cold surface temp = high ratios which we all know doesn't always work out.

Start at 15:1. Can always adjust higher once the flakes fly…

[Sey-Mour Snow]

19 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Are ratios really going to be that great? I haven't looked at soundings it seems like Kuchera is just cold surface temp = high ratios which we all know doesn't always work out.

Ratios are amazing for 2-3 hours in the band then average at best 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

HRRR about to bang this run / NE Trend continues this one will jack my Binghamton to BDR zone 

[SJonesWX]

I’m mostly watching this from the sidelines, but it would be a pleasant surprise if we managed to squeeze out an inch. Zero confidence on anything measurable here

[SouthCoastMA]

Weren't the SREFs already bad, then had a huge upgrade a few years ago that made them

 

[FXWX]

Couple of thoughts... I don't like warnings being issued for zones when the low end number in the forecast is less than warning criteria... Both high & low numbers in the forecast range should equal or exceed the warning criteria. Just my opinion.  Secondly, in this type of setup we are likely to see several mini maxes zones; western Fairfield cty, especially high terrain areas in Ridgefield / Danbury zone (overall greatest totals); another area of local enhancement from from high terrain areas of southern Litchfield cty into western Hartford cty, into northern / western New Haven cty; lastly another local max zone likely showing up in northern Tolland cty.  

[weatherwiz]

Time to work on an updated snow map  

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Time to work on an updated snow map  

Does BOX have one yet for the E CT Zones?

[tavwtby]

10 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Couple of thoughts... I don't like warnings being issued for zones when the low end number in the forecast is less than warning criteria... Both high & low numbers in the forecast range should equal or exceed the warning criteria. Just my opinion.  Secondly, in this type of setup we are likely to see several mini maxes zones; western Fairfield cty, especially high terrain areas in Ridgefield / Danbury zone (overall greatest totals); another area of local enhancement from from high terrain areas of southern Litchfield cty into western Hartford cty, into northern / western New Haven cty; lastly another local max zone likely showing up in northern Tolland cty.  

I agree with the low end criteria for warning at least being met for one to be hoisted, however I think it's because there may be so many people traveling, especially 84-81 and points west and south, maybe they want to get attention, a watch may be just ignored, just my thoughts on the reasoning 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Couple of thoughts... I don't like warnings being issued for zones when the low end number in the forecast is less than warning criteria... Both high & low numbers in the forecast range should equal or exceed the warning criteria. Just my opinion.  Secondly, in this type of setup we are likely to see several mini maxes zones; western Fairfield cty, especially high terrain areas in Ridgefield / Danbury zone (overall greatest totals); another area of local enhancement from from high terrain areas of southern Litchfield cty into western Hartford cty, into northern / western New Haven cty; lastly another local max zone likely showing up in northern Tolland cty.  

You had me at hello 

[mob1]

From the early going it looks likely that the NAM will come NE again. 

[Modfan2]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You had me at hello 

BOX only has 2-3” west of the river currently; let’s see if that changes

[Boston Bulldog]

NAM looking zonked upstream through 15z tomorrow 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Does BOX have one yet for the E CT Zones?

Not sure. I usually don't really look around at maps until I've made one...unless I don't feel like making one lol.