December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[87storms]

Maybe posted already, but discusses the NOAA AI models…

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models

[Ralph Wiggum]

Ok lets be real....we arent losing the trof in the NW US anytime soon are we? 

[Krs4Lfe]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ok lets be real....we arent losing the trof in the NW US anytime soon are we? 

With the PNA dipping even further negative, it’s likely that trough will persist, and there will be some ridge either over central US or east US. Even if northeast remains colder than average, with the rest of the country torching, there’s no snowstorm that can make its way over here. Unironically; the winter weather across CONUS this month could be the most significant of this entire winter. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

With the PNA dipping even further negative, it’s likely that trough will persist, and there will be some ridge either over central US or east US. Even if northeast remains colder than average, with the rest of the country torching, there’s no snowstorm that can make its way over here. Unironically; the winter weather across CONUS this month could be the most significant of this entire winter. 

@stormtracker needs to have his tech gurus add a vomit emoji

[Dendrimer77]

Eff the PNA....can I get an amen?

[JenkinsJinkies]

23 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

With the PNA dipping even further negative, it’s likely that trough will persist, and there will be some ridge either over central US or east US. Even if northeast remains colder than average, with the rest of the country torching, there’s no snowstorm that can make its way over here. Unironically; the winter weather across CONUS this month could be the most significant of this entire winter. 

I mean January is 2 weeks away, prime climo window starts in 4 weeks. Could it turn around by then and the models won't pick up on it until it's closer?

[baltosquid]

Potential dusting/snow tv on the 23rd on the GFS. That window hasn't really lived up to my interest in it, as the heights to our west just became too hostile for something to really develop even though we still managed to scrape some cold out of the situation. But flakes would be nice.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Potential dusting/snow tv on the 23rd on the GFS. That window hasn't really lived up to my interest in it, as the heights to our west just became too hostile for something to really develop even though we still managed to scrape some cold out of the situation. But flakes would be nice.

Honestly there's no chance until next month based off of what I've been seeing.

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Honestly there's no chance until next month based off of what I've been seeing.

I think you’re right. You should probably sign off until then.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I think you’re right. You should probably sign off until then.

Question is will the tune change 2 weeks from now or will forecasters string us along with "not too late" pieces until it's February and we're staring down a week of 70s?

[jayyy]

A couple of weeks of normal to slightly above normal temps and the winter is over speculation has already started.

Mid season form, folks. Mid season form.

Relax, y’all.

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

A couple of weeks of normal to slightly above normal temps and the winter is over speculation has already started.

Mid season form, folks. Mid season form.

Relax, y’all.

https://x.com/webberweather

Then there's the ENSO thread

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

https://x.com/webberweather

Then there's the ENSO thread

ENSO thread is fine lol

[bncho]

0z GFS is pretty nice

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z GFS is pretty nice

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

 

There's a digital snow thread.

[LordBaltimore]

3 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

With the PNA dipping even further negative, it’s likely that trough will persist, and there will be some ridge either over central US or east US. Even if northeast remains colder than average, with the rest of the country torching, there’s no snowstorm that can make its way over here. Unironically; the winter weather across CONUS this month could be the most significant of this entire winter. 

The PNA dipping and trough persisting is more or less a tautology. If the models end up spitting out a new solution w/o trough by definition the PNA will not dip further negative. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

ENSO thread says -NAO talk is jumping the gun and don’t expect any significant cold shots at the very end of the month…

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS on PNA. Anecdotally, when I see the PNA at -3 or lower, it just can't get cold enough at our latitude for snow....but notice it bumps up to near -1 around NY week and the control actually goes positive.  At that point, a negative NAO could work some magic and pull some cold air down with the AO neutral and the WPO negative. EPO is not favorable NY week.