December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[winter_warlock]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

this is actually pretty late for Ji - so another good sign.

 Wow I thought it was kinda early for him. But after the string of horrible snow starved winters that a lot of us had .. who can really blame him lol TBH! 

[pazzo83]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

 Wow I thought it was kinda early for him. But after the string of horrible snow starved winters that a lot of us had .. who can really blame him lol TBH! 

we've had september-october winter cancel calls before.

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

we've had september-october winter cancel calls before.

Holy crap!! Now that's early!! Lol

[Steve25]

Not a single post about ANY of the 00z runs of the models tonight. Just a massive snorefest. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z AI EPS.... the NW screw zone remains even on the snowiest model.

[WxUSAF]

Looking ahead because I’m pissed I’m getting screwed tomorrow. Late next week definitely has some things going for it with a -NAO and 50/50 combo. Also a flat ish +PNA. If we can get that PNA to spike and get the shortwave coming out of the northern stream to dive below us, we could get something going. 

0z euro and 6z gfs both develop a weak coastal storm in this window but move it away from us really quick.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Looking ahead because I’m pissed I’m getting screwed tomorrow. Late next week definitely has some things going for it with a -NAO and 50/50 combo. Also a flat ish +PNA. If we can get that PNA to spike and get the shortwave coming out of the northern stream to dive below us, we could get something going. 

0z euro and 6z gfs both develop a weak coastal storm in this window but move it away from us really quick.

Yeah, that alaska vortex needs to move norther or weaken. Otherwise, it won't let shortwaves dig enough for us to develop storms with enough gulf moisture.

[Terpeast]

On the plus side, the -WPO should chip away at the negative PDO and maybe even set us up for end of month into January

[RevWarReenactor]

The GFS is truly awful, this is probably the 6th or 7th time it has taken away the Sunday into Monday storm only to bring it back. Rain here, but ill chase it into NY. 

[WxUSAF]

Oh look, another attempt at a warm up (after next weekend) that looks muted all of a sudden...  Op runs are super active, if northern stream dominated (as expected).

[Ji]

52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Oh look, another attempt at a warm up (after next weekend) that looks muted all of a sudden...  Op runs are super active, if northern stream dominated (as expected).

Op runs are not super active if they are northern stream. I did notice the enembles got wetter towards the end of the run but that might coincide with a bit of a warming trend lol...

[WxUSAF]

Super active =\ super wet

[Maestrobjwa]

41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Super active =\ super wet

I was about to say...this looks like cold and dry to me since it may be harder for anything to amplify and ya get more interference.