winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Just now, pazzo83 said: this is actually pretty late for Ji - so another good sign. Wow I thought it was kinda early for him. But after the string of horrible snow starved winters that a lot of us had .. who can really blame him lol TBH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Just now, winter_warlock said: Wow I thought it was kinda early for him. But after the string of horrible snow starved winters that a lot of us had .. who can really blame him lol TBH! we've had september-october winter cancel calls before. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: we've had september-october winter cancel calls before. Holy crap!! Now that's early!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Not a single post about ANY of the 00z runs of the models tonight. Just a massive snorefest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 WB 0Z AI EPS.... the NW screw zone remains even on the snowiest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Looking ahead because I’m pissed I’m getting screwed tomorrow. Late next week definitely has some things going for it with a -NAO and 50/50 combo. Also a flat ish +PNA. If we can get that PNA to spike and get the shortwave coming out of the northern stream to dive below us, we could get something going. 0z euro and 6z gfs both develop a weak coastal storm in this window but move it away from us really quick. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Looking ahead because I’m pissed I’m getting screwed tomorrow. Late next week definitely has some things going for it with a -NAO and 50/50 combo. Also a flat ish +PNA. If we can get that PNA to spike and get the shortwave coming out of the northern stream to dive below us, we could get something going. 0z euro and 6z gfs both develop a weak coastal storm in this window but move it away from us really quick. Yeah, that alaska vortex needs to move norther or weaken. Otherwise, it won't let shortwaves dig enough for us to develop storms with enough gulf moisture. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 On the plus side, the -WPO should chip away at the negative PDO and maybe even set us up for end of month into January 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 The GFS is truly awful, this is probably the 6th or 7th time it has taken away the Sunday into Monday storm only to bring it back. Rain here, but ill chase it into NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Oh look, another attempt at a warm up (after next weekend) that looks muted all of a sudden... Op runs are super active, if northern stream dominated (as expected). 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Oh look, another attempt at a warm up (after next weekend) that looks muted all of a sudden... Op runs are super active, if northern stream dominated (as expected). Op runs are not super active if they are northern stream. I did notice the enembles got wetter towards the end of the run but that might coincide with a bit of a warming trend lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Super active =\ super wet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Super active =\ super wet I was about to say...this looks like cold and dry to me since it may be harder for anything to amplify and ya get more interference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 10 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: The GFS is truly awful, this is probably the 6th or 7th time it has taken away the Sunday into Monday storm only to bring it back. Rain here, but ill chase it into NY. You should come back to the place that shall not be named. We miss you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 FWIW pretty visible Met Mike Masco posted this.... FWIW!.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 One thing to remember: this week was supposed to be a torch. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 Euro has a nice small event for the 12/13th 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 9 hours ago, stormtracker said: Euro has a nice small event for the 12/13th Would guarantee we exceed December snowfall climo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 Don't look now, but the extended 00z EPS cancels out any major warm up through New Year's. While the pattern does not appear favorable for a HECS, it sure as heck beat Pacific Puke for Christmas. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Don't look now, but the extended 00z EPS cancels out any major warm up through New Year's. While the pattern does not appear favorable for a HECS, it sure as heck beat Pacific Puke for Christmas. General odds of a moderate accumulating snow, at least should increase, the next 15 to 25 days with the - SOI dive and a re-set of the MJO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Would guarantee we exceed December snowfall climo. DCA is well on its way there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 23 minutes ago, frd said: General odds of a moderate accumulating snow, at least should increase, the next 15 to 25 days with the - SOI dive and a re-set of the MJO. Indeed. Reliable posters on the southern end of our sub form such as @griteater are still enthused which is good for our area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 Long range right now looks dry but chilly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 30 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Long range right now looks dry but chilly. Yeah I don't think we're gonna have anything to track for awhile. Unfortunately for us this was probably the best chance for a bit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I don't think we're gonna have anything to track for awhile. Unfortunately for us this was the best chance at least until later. Ya missed one 25 miles to the north and 25 miles to the south. Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 Just now, TSSN+ said: Ya missed one 25 miles to the north and 25 miles to the south. Brutal Seriously. Man I don't care who critcizes--we got every right to vent and complain as much as we'd like after 10 years of snow mediocrity and snow stopping right at the doorstep and hitting a frickin' wall (especially my area--literally dividing line between me and my own reporting station)...while they southern half of the forum--where most posters seem to live--cashes in. I do not understand what's been going on, smh End rant (I guess, lol) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 So when is the next dusting for Frederick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 23 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya missed one 25 miles to the north and 25 miles to the south. Brutal Par. For. Course. (for the last half dozen or so years up our way, at any rate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 33 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Long range right now looks dry but chilly. Not sure how this gets weenied as it’s just a fact per models they don’t show nothing in the extended period precipitation wise but keep it chilly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 5, 2025 Share Posted December 5, 2025 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Not sure how this gets weenied as it’s just a fact per models they don’t show nothing in the extended period precipitation wise but keep it chilly. Yeah sounds accurate to me. Something could definitely pop up but looks northern stream driven for the next 10 days atleast. Hoping to get a clipper get underneath of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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