December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Heckin' wimdy out there today. Low roar in the treetops and cold as a muthafukka.

And finally after all this cold we have full coverage in New England.  Wintah!

 

Not so bad after all huh. Great shot. 

[cleetussnow]

As soon as the microchip was invented, there was always going to be AI in the future.  

[CoastalWx]

At least VA gets another snow event on the GFS. They could use it.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Because some people take them as "gospel" ????

If humans make every decision based on the dumbest people of the population, we’d get no where.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

At least VA gets another snow event on the GFS. They could use it.

Their year there for sure…at least early on it seems.  Nobody saw that coming. 

[Great Snow 1717]

43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The future is scary. Hide yo kids, hide yo wives…

Nevermind the future...the present is scary on many levels...

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Their year there for sure…at least early on it seems.  Nobody saw that coming. 

Thats not a snow in VA sleet to rain.and GFS op? Gets so convoluted and unscientific at times in here 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

12z GFS shows the ugly potential going into the 24th/25th

wild swing from 6z

Op Models swing wildly at 10 days. Think how many mega storms have been at 10 to 15 days this year yet we have had none. Absolutely useless for sensible weather. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thats not a snow in VA sleet to rain.and GFS op? Gets so convoluted and unscientific at times in here 

sandwiched b/w 2 cutters

[CT Rain]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least VA gets another snow event on the GFS. They could use it.

PF gets a good snowstorm on Boxing Day too! 

[radarman]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least VA gets another snow event on the GFS. They could use it.

I'll take my chances with stout HP at this range on that model in the upcoming pattern 

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

PF gets a good snowstorm on Boxing Day too! 

For Virginia?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Ugly gfs OP run. It can change, it’s 10 days away, blah blah blah, we get it. However, those periods have been highlighted for potential cutters.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ugly gfs OP run. It can change, it’s 10 days away, blah blah blah, we get it. However, those periods have been highlighted for potential cutters.

God…you just never quit.  WTF?  

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

PF gets a good snowstorm on Boxing Day too! 

Personally for me…I’d be totally happy if NNE can grab a good snow event around Xmas.  Still a ways out…so anything is still on the table. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

God…you just never quit.  WTF?  

I think it’s kind of ridiculous that people can’t discuss what’s on the models to be honest. I don’t think I’m the problem.

They show what they show.

Somehow, if they showed a mega blizzard, I don’t think those same talking points would apply.

[Damage In Tolland]

Why are folks dissecting op runs .. especially at long range ?

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think it’s kind of ridiculous that people can’t discuss what’s on the models to be honest. I don’t think I’m the problem.

They show what they show.

Somehow, if they showed a mega blizzard, I don’t think those same talking points would apply.

But you keep harping on these Op runs at 10 plus days out…and how bad they look. And yes, Brett, if they showed a blizzard, at 8-11 days out we’d take them just as insignificantly.   As Steve said…op runs at those lead times are BS for sensible weather. Yet you continue to use them to push your disdain for the weather.  It’s frigid. It’s been frigid. Yes, we got boned in the snow department…especially compared to basically everyone around us…but that shit happens bro.  Maybe we make up for it going forward at some point.  I know you don’t like to hear this, but it’s really not even winter yet.  But That’s a fact. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are folks dissecting op runs .. especially at long range ?

Exactly.  I don’t get it? 

[Damage In Tolland]

This is 100% the problem. These posters look at every op run and get all upset and think it’s the final outcome. Then they make posts like “ the next 10 days look like garbage “ or 3 cutters thru day 10” . They aren’t able to understand that it’s not the final outcome or solution and so it affects their moods, behaviors , and posts. 

[radarman]

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But you keep harping on these Op runs at 10 plus days out…and how bad they look. And yes, Brett, if they showed a blizzard, at 8-11 days out we’d take them just as insignificantly.   As Steve said…op runs at those lead times are BS for sensible weather. Yet you continue to use them to push your disdain for the weather.  It’s frigid. It’s been frigid. Yes, we got boned in the snow department…especially compared to basically everyone around us…but that shit happens bro.  Maybe we make up for it going forward at some point.  I know you don’t like to hear this, but it’s really not even winter yet.  But That’s a fact. 

I disagree with this. There would be 100 posts just showing snow maps from 50 different models and then comparing changes in the snow maps to justify any trends and then the if game on how if a,b,c,d,e,f do this it has a chance. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, radarman said:

good thing they probably don't have many large trees in the northern Plains or upper-Midwest (or maybe they do...never been).

[WxWatcher007]

He’s just sitting back…watchin’…waitin’…smilin’…

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

He’s just sitting back…watchin’…waitin’…smilin’…

always got the 12z Euro AI which brings snow in Christmas eve

[Great Snow 1717]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I disagree with this. There would be 100 posts just showing snow maps from 50 different models and then comparing changes in the snow maps to justify any trends and then the if game on how if a,b,c,d,e,f do this it has a chance. 

100% correct!

[radarman]

with respect to that surface hp around the 22nd/23rd, there isn't much to suggest we're gonna run a big moisture plume into it right now and even a 6z gfs front ender doesn't have a lot of support at this time (including from 12z).  But maybe a deamplifying wave of some kind could be in play on the front side of the ridge going up in the center of the CONUS.  Normally that's not gonna excite most people, but could be the difference in a white Christmas for some.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

always got the 12z Euro AI which brings snow in Christmas eve

Its been advertising snow around that time, off and run, for the past several days. Oh wait, I'm breaking the rule of talking about long range OP runs. 

[weathafella]

Ok op huggers-today’s euro is snowy for many of us.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I disagree with this. There would be 100 posts just showing snow maps from 50 different models and then comparing changes in the snow maps to justify any trends and then the if game on how if a,b,c,d,e,f do this it has a chance. 

Yeah, I’m not going to argue anymore, but is 100% the truth. There would be posts talking about how it fits the pattern, etc. I mean, let’s just be honest about what’s really happening. People don’t want to discuss the potential negative outcomes, it’s as simple as that.