CoastalWx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup, a welfare check may need to be made over there…. He’s probably falling through pond ice as we speak. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This place is a weenie insane asylum. My God. 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He’s probably falling through pond ice as we speak. His own son 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 384 hrs out…but who’s counting. 2015! (ok verification was a few days off) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: that post reeked of self-soothing ... It was really drafted up to off-set the fear they, themselves, covet. Which one you referring to tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 2015! (ok verification was a few days off) As we’ve said before, cutters and torches are easier to verify as there is plenty of room for model error which still delivers the same undesirable result for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: 2015! (ok verification was a few days off) 2015-2016 is not a winter anyone wants to show up on comparisons/analogs. Blech! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This place is a weenie insane asylum. My God. 4+ years of garbage winters will do that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: 2015-2016 is not a winter anyone wants to show up on comparisons/analogs. Blech! Thankfully basically zero similarities between those two years at the moment. We’ve had a different Pacific regime compared to recent years so far…that very strong WPO block is not something that’s been there. In recent years, we’ve seen a generally strong positive WPO which will tend to mute the cold…the negative phase has the opposite effect which is probably why our cold has been overperforming in the medium range. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago GFS ensembles also don't support what the op is selling in the long range. There is consensus across the board of some relaxing of this colder pattern for at least a few days coming up. How much TBD... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: As we’ve said before, cutters and torches are easier to verify as there is plenty of room for model error which still delivers the same undesirable result for us. and that's the pissah. Sn storms are like threading a needle requiring near perfect alignment and coordination of precip and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 9 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: GFS ensembles also don't support what the op is selling in the long range. There is consensus across the board of some relaxing of this colder pattern for at least a few days coming up. How much TBD... People need to calm down. We’re all having fun and joking about the ridging shown on Christmas. No one is calling for it…yet. With that said, I disagree to some extent. The 12z gefs gained a handful of members with strong SE ridges. Obviously you can’t expect 591dm to verify or be matched on a d16 ens lol. 12z eps is pretty warm looking for the holiday too. Hopefully it pans out cooler. I’d like to have pack for the holiday. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 4+ years of garbage winters will do that... One great winter month here since Winter 2018/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 30 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: As we’ve said before, cutters and torches are easier to verify as there is plenty of room for model error which still delivers the same undesirable result for us. Cutters literally have a 1000 miles of territory to work with to produce the same result. Big coastal storms not so much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: People need to calm down. We’re all having fun and joking about the ridging shown on Christmas. No one is calling for it…yet. With that said, I disagree to some extent. The 12z gefs gained a handful of members with strong SE ridges. Obviously you can’t expect 591dm to verify or be matched on a d16 ens lol. 12z eps is pretty warm looking for the holiday too. Hopefully it pans out cooler. I’d like to have pack for the holiday. I’m still skeptical that the ensembles have it right with regard to timing and amplitude. It’d be hard to put up a -10 month so a relaxation from what we’ve seen so far would not be surprising. The real question is if that precludes snow chances and pack retention for Christmas. Nobody cares if it’s 50 on Boxing Day if the day before was 30 with snow on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago So we’ve got rainer tomorrow .. then either snow or whiff Saturday nite into early Sunday and then Rainer mid week next week ahead of another cold shot right behind it . Just making sure all the fun is outlined properly 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Cutters literally have a 1000 miles of territory to work with to produce the same result. Big coastal storms not so much. The cutter has been in the exact same spot for a week on the Euro. St Lawrence screamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Yup, a welfare check may need to be made over there…. Damn right 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 18z GFS still a whiff on Sunday. Icon was pretty decent though. Always good to have that model on your side. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago I have this picture in my head of scooter and scooter Jr. Sitting at the dinner table checking 18z euro runs ignoring the rest of the family.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: I have this picture in my head of scooter and scooter Jr. Sitting at the dinner table checking 18z euro runs ignoring the rest of the family.. Father and son discussing weenies while mom tries to not choke on her American chop suey. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z GFS still a whiff on Sunday. Icon was pretty decent though. Always good to have that model on your side. Like the AI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Like the AI Both AI models have been relatively bullish on the Sunday threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 8 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: I have this picture in my head of scooter and scooter Jr. Sitting at the dinner table checking 18z euro runs ignoring the rest of the family.. Meanwhile Allison is the one typing under both screen names 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 19 minutes ago, Masswx said: Damn right What a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Hopefully both AI have a clue. We pray for the machines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: Father and son discussing weenies while mom tries to not choke on her American chop suey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago IMO this is a classic setup the GFS would win. In La Nina years or any case where you have any heavy northern stream involvement or fast flow if its squashing a system it tends to be right. Its more often owned on Miller As or systems where you've got more southern stream action 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Which one you referring to tip the guy "instructing" us why that GFS solution wasn't likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Let's start by calling the 14th a 'possible event', and leave the word threat for something that actually threatens anything haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 51 minutes ago, dendrite said: People need to calm down. We’re all having fun and joking about the ridging shown on Christmas. No one is calling for it…yet. With that said, I disagree to some extent. The 12z gefs gained a handful of members with strong SE ridges. Obviously you can’t expect 591dm to verify or be matched on a d16 ens lol. 12z eps is pretty warm looking for the holiday too. Hopefully it pans out cooler. I’d like to have pack for the holiday. Our average high is 27F Christmas week, so that wouldn't be brutal here, unless accompanied by 2 inches of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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