December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, a welfare check may need to be made over there…. 

He’s probably falling through pond ice as we speak. 

[WxWatcher007]

26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This place is a weenie insane asylum. My God. 

 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s probably falling through pond ice as we speak. 

His own son  

[dendrite]

34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

384 hrs out…but who’s counting. 

2015!

(ok verification was a few days off)

[Snowcrazed71]

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that post reeked of self-soothing   ... It was really drafted up to off-set the fear they, themselves, covet. 

 

Which one you referring to tip

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

2015!

(ok verification was a few days off)

As we’ve said before, cutters and torches are easier to verify as there is plenty of  room for model error which still delivers the same undesirable result for us. 

[bristolri_wx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

2015!

(ok verification was a few days off)

2015-2016 is not a winter anyone wants to show up on comparisons/analogs.  Blech!

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This place is a weenie insane asylum. My God. 

4+ years of garbage winters will do that...

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

2015-2016 is not a winter anyone wants to show up on comparisons/analogs.  Blech!

Thankfully basically zero similarities between those two years at the moment. We’ve had a different Pacific regime compared to recent years so far…that very strong WPO block is not something that’s been there. In recent years, we’ve seen a generally strong positive WPO which will tend to mute the cold…the negative phase has the opposite effect which is probably why our cold has been overperforming in the medium range. 

[bristolri_wx]

GFS ensembles also don't support what the op is selling in the long range.  There is consensus across the board of some relaxing of this colder pattern for at least a few days coming up.  How much TBD...

[Lava Rock]

19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

As we’ve said before, cutters and torches are easier to verify as there is plenty of  room for model error which still delivers the same undesirable result for us. 

and that's the pissah. Sn storms are like threading a needle requiring near perfect alignment and coordination of precip and cold

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

GFS ensembles also don't support what the op is selling in the long range.  There is consensus across the board of some relaxing of this colder pattern for at least a few days coming up.  How much TBD...

People need to calm down. We’re all having fun and joking about the ridging shown on Christmas. No one is calling for it…yet.

With that said, I disagree to some extent. The 12z gefs gained a handful of members with strong SE ridges. Obviously you can’t expect 591dm to verify or be matched on a d16 ens lol.

12z eps is pretty warm looking for the holiday too. Hopefully it pans out cooler. I’d like to have pack for the holiday.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

4+ years of garbage winters will do that...

One great winter month here since Winter 2018/19

[HIPPYVALLEY]

30 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

As we’ve said before, cutters and torches are easier to verify as there is plenty of  room for model error which still delivers the same undesirable result for us. 

Cutters literally have a 1000 miles of territory to work with to produce the same result. Big coastal storms not so much.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

People need to calm down. We’re all having fun and joking about the ridging shown on Christmas. No one is calling for it…yet.

With that said, I disagree to some extent. The 12z gefs gained a handful of members with strong SE ridges. Obviously you can’t expect 591dm to verify or be matched on a d16 ens lol.

12z eps is pretty warm looking for the holiday too. Hopefully it pans out cooler. I’d like to have pack for the holiday.

I’m still skeptical that the ensembles have it right with regard to timing and amplitude. It’d be hard to put up a -10 month so a relaxation from what we’ve seen so far would not be surprising. The real question is if that precludes snow chances and pack retention for Christmas. Nobody cares if it’s 50 on Boxing Day if the day before was 30 with snow on the ground.

[Damage In Tolland]

So we’ve got rainer tomorrow .. then either snow or whiff Saturday nite into early Sunday and then Rainer mid week next week ahead of another cold shot right behind it . Just making sure all the fun is outlined properly 

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Cutters literally have a 1000 miles of territory to work with to produce the same result. Big coastal storms not so much.

The cutter has been in the exact same spot for a week on the Euro. St Lawrence screamer. 

[Masswx]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, a welfare check may need to be made over there…. 

Damn right 

[ORH_wxman]

18z GFS still a whiff on Sunday. Icon was pretty decent though. Always good to have that model on your side. 

[8611Blizz]

I have this picture in my head of scooter and scooter Jr. Sitting at the dinner table checking 18z euro runs ignoring the rest of the family.. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

I have this picture in my head of scooter and scooter Jr. Sitting at the dinner table checking 18z euro runs ignoring the rest of the family.. 

Father and son discussing weenies while mom tries to not choke on her American chop suey.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS still a whiff on Sunday. Icon was pretty decent though. Always good to have that model on your side. 

Like the AI

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Like the AI

Both AI models have been relatively bullish on the Sunday threat. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

I have this picture in my head of scooter and scooter Jr. Sitting at the dinner table checking 18z euro runs ignoring the rest of the family.. 

Meanwhile Allison is the one typing under both screen names 

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Damn right 

What a weenie 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully both AI have a clue. We pray for the machines.

[Baroclinic Zone]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Father and son discussing weenies while mom tries to not choke on her American chop suey.

 

[SnowGoose69]

IMO this is a classic setup the GFS would win.  In La Nina years or any case where you have any heavy northern stream involvement or fast flow if its squashing a system it tends to be right.  Its more often owned on Miller As or systems where you've got more southern stream action

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Which one you referring to tip

the guy "instructing" us why that GFS solution wasn't likely   

[Typhoon Tip]

Let's start by calling the 14th a 'possible event', and leave the word threat for something that actually threatens anything   haha

[TheMainer]

51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

People need to calm down. We’re all having fun and joking about the ridging shown on Christmas. No one is calling for it…yet.

With that said, I disagree to some extent. The 12z gefs gained a handful of members with strong SE ridges. Obviously you can’t expect 591dm to verify or be matched on a d16 ens lol.

12z eps is pretty warm looking for the holiday too. Hopefully it pans out cooler. I’d like to have pack for the holiday.

Our average high is 27F Christmas week, so that wouldn't be brutal here, unless accompanied by 2 inches of rain...