11/8-11/10 First Snow and Lake Effect Event

[sbnwx85]

I’m liking the trends on the HRRR locally. It keeps the main band overhead for several hours this late afternoon and evening before the mesolow swings through. Tomorrow afternoon and evening will have to be closely watched out here for round 2. 

[KeenerWx]

Took a tour through some cams across Porter County. Looks like perhaps a RA/SN mix along the 94 corridor. But down towards Valparaiso, snowing heavy & accumulating nicely. 

[GaWx]

 The official Chicago records have been at O’Hare since 1980 and were at Midway 1942-79. Prior to that they were even closer to the lake.

 Keeping this in mind: the official Chicago record heaviest Nov snowfall for a single storm is 12.0” (11/25-6 of 1895). That was from a strong low (rather than pure Lake Effect) that moved from N Miss to E of MI per old wx maps. Like @donsutherland1said, it’s highly unlikely this will even be close to 12” officially. (I saw that he mentioned that 4”+ is reachable though).

THE FOLLOWING IS THE UPDATED LIST OF THE LARGEST SNOW EVENTS
DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER FOR CHICAGO DURING THE PERIOD OF
RECORD...WHICH IS SINCE 1884:

RANK DATES EVENT SNOWFALL /IN/
-----------------------------------------
1. NOV 25-26 1895 12.0
2. NOV 20-21 2015 11.2
3. NOV 6-7 1951 9.3
4. NOV 26-27 1975 8.6  
5. NOV 27-28 1891 6.0



RANK MONTH MONTHLY SNOWFALL /IN/
-----------------------------------------
1. NOV 1940 14.8
2. NOV 1895 14.5
3. NOV 1951 14.3
4. NOV 2015* 11.2
5. NOV 1975 10.8 

https://www.weather.gov/lot/earliestnovsnows

[donsutherland1]

The 12z HREF:

[mimillman]

Pretty nuts if this pans out 

Tonight

Snow showers, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. Blustery, with a north wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. 

Monday

Snow showers likely, mainly before 9am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. West northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[Chinook]

The changeover from rain to snow produced some heavier snowfall rates here in Toledo. I believe my place got over 2" before 10:00, and we still have snowflakes and 35 degrees.

[Paulie21]

Airmass tonight into tomorrow features H5 temps from -39C to -41C approximately and H85 temps at around -10C. Meanwhile lake temps are in the low 50s, I'm using 51 so using 11C. Pretty impressive lapse rates and given EL levels are approaching 25kft the lake induced CAPE may be near 1500 J/kg on the new HRRR. Values overall are 'extreme' for a few hours for KCGX and LM3 per bufkit. Seems like a fairly decent fetch along the lake, included 925mb RH% and streamlines as a visual.

Pretty tremendous omega values co-located with the DGZ will only add the big flakes/aggregates, also seen on the overview image. Likely not as noteworthy given we already have plenty of lake induced CAPE but liking the theta-e contours in the vertical for some weak symmetric stability.

Some limiting factors may be subtle low level inversions at times along with moisture depth/saturation throughout the layer. Think another issue may be a bit of directional shear at times will wobble the band enough to limit those high accumulations in a single area.

[donsutherland1]

With 1.2" of snow earlier today, Detroit saw 1" or more snowfall for the 7th time on record for November 9. The prior cases for November 9 snowfall of 1" or above are:

1894 2.0"
1913 1.8"
1921 5.3" (daily record; 3rd biggest daily snowfall on record prior to November 15; 8th biggest daily snowfall on record for November)
1933 1.3"
1971 1.6"
2018 1.3"

November 9 is the earliest date with 7 or more such snowfalls.

[Jebman]

8 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

So this is happening huh

Need to dig in

Gonna need to dig out, too lol. ENJOY!

[weathafella]

Nice to see snow in the air at the giants/bears game.  My daughter works downtown and lives in Logan Square.  I bet she’ll have a lot more at work near the lake vs home.  Meso effects are so unpredictable.  I was visiting in July and we went to dinner in the west Loop area one night and got 3” of rain in a fairly short time.   5 miles north nothing.

[homedis]

HRRR is liking Lake Co., IL & Kenosha a little more with the 18z.

[mimillman]

[A-L-E-K]

11 minutes ago, homedis said:

HRRR is liking Lake Co., IL & Kenosha a little more with the 18z.

Good sign

[sbnwx85]

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

 

[ILSNOW]

Currently no watches or warning in Wisconsin!!

[Malacka11]

Moved east almost to the border of cook and dupage. Obv still not near ground zero but it would be cool to get in on something. Maybe if round 1 does okay this far inland and then the band drifting down from the WI border also makes it to us for a bit, we could get the ground full white for the afternoon. Congrats Alek/downtown gang, mclovin it for you

[Nelson]

This is wild

As a result, the
expectation is for the lake effect snow bands to be unusually
intense with peak snow rates of 3 to locally 5 inches per hour,
frequent lightning and thunder, and pockets of hail.

[Nelson]

Good luck to everyone in the potential path - rooting for a historic event

[ChiTownSnow]

10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Moved east almost to the border of cook and dupage. Obv still not near ground zero but it would be cool to get in on something. Maybe if round 1 does okay this far inland and then the band drifting down from the WI border also makes it to us for a bit, we could get the ground full white for the afternoon. Congrats Alek/downtown gang, mclovin it for you

I'm in Hinsdale area.. Hoping for same

[ChiTownSnow]

4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

I'm in Hinsdale area.. Hoping for same

Did NWS do away with 'lake effect snow warnings'. ?

[pen_artist]

Same as a few other posters, moved further east to border of Oak Park and Austin this weekend. Liking my odds of getting in on some 6+ snowfall to welcome me into the new space :)

[Chicago Storm]

31 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Did NWS do away with 'lake effect snow warnings'. ?

The NWS Central Region did a few years ago.

The move was made to make simplify things and lower the number of headlines types overall. But at the same time, it's kind of of dumb, because this is clearly not a "winter storm". Gain simplicity, lose accuracy.

[metallica470]

Was fun while it lasted now starts the trend back to realistic totals:

[sbnwx85]

A little ahead of schedule but we are rocking.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 1.2" of snow earlier today, Detroit saw 1" or more snowfall for the 7th time on record for November 9. The prior cases for November 9 snowfall of 1" or above are:

1894 2.0"
1913 1.8"
1921 5.3" (daily record; 3rd biggest daily snowfall on record prior to November 15; 8th biggest daily snowfall on record for November)
1933 1.3"
1971 1.6"
2018 1.3"

November 9 is the earliest date with 7 or more such snowfalls.

It was absolutely gorgeous this morning. Had it been a few degrees colder or few weeks later in the season, it would have been 2-3". Instead we got 1.1" here with 1.2" at DTW. I belive Ann Arbor got 1.5-2" and 2-2.5" near the ohio border. The magic of the first snow....only 5 months til the last snow lol!

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was absolutely gorgeous this morning. Had it been a few degrees colder or few weeks later in the season, it would have been 2-3". Instead we got 1.1" here with 1.2" at DTW. I belive Ann Arbor got 1.5-2" and 2-2.5" near the ohio border. The magic of the first snow....only 5 months til the last snow lol!

Very beautiful pictures. There is always beauty in the snow.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, metallica470 said:

Was fun while it lasted now starts the trend back to realistic totals:

Read the AFD to go with it. Someone still has the potential to get 72”.

[sbnwx85]

Got an inch in about an hour. 5-10” seems like a good bet before the band completely shifts west overnight. 

[Chinook]

I was testing out some color palettes for Radarscope. This clear-air color palette makes it look super cool by South Bend

[Chinook]

another view