Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    18,320
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

Overnight Wednesday, November 5, 2025 Wind Event

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 149
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

thanks wiz and vortex95. 

metagraphica
metagraphica

Perfect, nobody wants damage and/or power outages.

Ginx snewx
Ginx snewx

Oct 17 is my non tropical Benchmark.  Pretty scary long duration with limb bark shingles banging agint the house for hours . Had a 4 inch limb go thru the roof. Lost all the ridge vent shingles. Insur

Posted Images

dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea it was the worst short term fail . Dendrite nailed it

Not sure I really called anything. The only thing I didn’t like was that the peak of the wind was all overnight. We’ve had good wind at night before, but this was more of a quick in and out impulse. That and the models kept backing off on the 850/925 winds the past couple of days. It’s tough to mix down what isn’t there. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

Decent fail with the models on this one; maybe one decent gust at 2am. Hopefully DIT didn’t hit too many leaves on his morning run. 

I think it's more apt to say it was a decent fail by the models that were promoting it. 

The NAM had this less than 40mph winds 2 days ago for example.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I also wish this would have busted with the LLJ that was advertised a few days ago versus busting because the LLJ just didn't pan out. If we got the 50-60 knot LLJ, I wonder if last night would have performed or not. 

I find these setups to be interesting, whether its 35-45 mph gusts or something that has potential for 50-60 mph. Over the years we've had plenty of times where wind advisories (this includes high wind) were issued and nothing happened, and times it's like "where the heck is the wind advisories". 

I am also wondering if the showers helped to develop or enhance a subtle inversion above the surface which maybe knocked off like 10 mph of gust potential? Was looking at some 6z NAM bufkit soundings and there are some subtle inversions just above the sfc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The low simply trended weaker. Shortwave not as potent and rapid low development did not take place. 

Just went back and looked and noticed the models backed off on the narrow jet streak of 130+ knots it had developing around the base of the trough. Looked through at 0z models last night and yeah that shortwave was vastly different than what was modeled just a few days ago. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The low simply trended weaker. Shortwave not as potent and rapid low development did not take place. 

Honest question here…it seems like when the Euro used to be able to crush it, it would have known this was gonna be weaker at two days out?  Now, no model seems to be able to sniff this stuff out even at 36-48 hrs?  This is where it honestly seems the modeling has trended in the wrong direction?  
 

And I know the NAM showed it weak, but the NAM is all over the map…it found a nut this time, as it will rarely do from time to time. So that doesn’t really say much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

what do we mean by llj in this case?  i may not be understanding where that was seen.  i never bought into the llj idea, as i think of that as a compression jet out ahead a baroclinic axis where 900 mb fire hose is going on.  if so, that is not typically found in flat progressive wave types, skirting along a straight w-e or wnw-ese deep layer motion. 

that may be more of cyclone climatology argument but clippers/quasi-clippers don't typically do that. if this had, this would have been unusual. unusual things do take place from time to time so in that sense ... couldn't ignore it entirely, no.  however, seeing it not happen?  heh

but synoptically, any wind as i saw it in the modeling from 2 days ago ... was more likely going to come from a jolt isallobaric acceleration as the low was leaving, then seamlessly that pulsed acceleration becomes a few hours of caa instability related momentum gusts.  

(isallobaric acceleration is due to excessive deepening rates exceeding Coriolis and the wind goes across the isobars instead of flowing quasi-parallel - the response can be so overwhelming that it's like a p-wave off a bomb blast with low lvl wind fields, even calm scenarios, abruptly finding itself in damaging whiplash gusting in some extreme cases) 

two days ago this had some semblances of that effect.  not hugely obvious, but when combining that with modeled lapses rates at the time, and also, a low modeled down to sub 980 mb  ...the rest became choosing the model that was the most dystopian d-drip extreme lol .  seriously though it should be noted, the nam never really had big wind beginning ~ two day ago.  

the other aspect is the model magnification syndrome.  ha.   just mean that tendency to de-amplify just about everything the models actually model, when they bring events inside of 72 hours.   we've discussed this ad naseam.  this overall system devolution in modes, and it really bit some forecasting ass this time. 

that dependable error correction ( greater amplitude to less amplitudes at irregular percentage headaches) is puzzling.  i've wondered if perhaps there a physical flaw in the model construction, one possibly being exposed by cc.   i've wondered if there is a natural, unavoidable tendency for systems to 'glow' prominently out in time, then succumbing to countless corrosive factors - those that cannot be seen - yet to emerge along the way; they gnaw at the system in question.  i've even wondered if the engineers were mandated to do this on purpose- because it could actually serve a purpose in ferreting out the more important events that might otherwise be buried in chaos out in time.  we can sci-fi this for ever.  probably something like that middle reason... either way, something like 10 to 40% of any 'storm' is pretty much eaten away in some kind of entropic tax as the late mid range comes into near terms.   this system clearly fell victim to that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Honest question here…it seems like when the Euro used to be able to crush it, it would have known this was gonna be weaker at two days out?  Now, no model seems to be able to sniff this stuff out even at 36-48 hrs?  This is where it honestly seems the modeling has trended in the wrong direction?  
 

And I know the NAM showed it weak, but the NAM is all over the map…it found a nut this time, as it will rarely do from time to time. So that doesn’t really say much.

Starting at 18z Tuesday it trended weaker. Even yesterday it was meh. That can happen. Weaker jet dynamics helped cause it. Shortwave was coming from Canada which we know can cause issues until it gets closer to the denser monitoring near the US.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...