November 2025 OBS Discussion

[JonClaw]

13 minutes ago, steve392 said:

So who was the big winner with wind gusts last night?  I thought my house was going to be blown over for a few seconds lol

In the city, LGA recorded 54 MPH; Stony Brook topped the night and recorded 70 MPH.

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/310-2025/PNSOKX/c8517c8ca3014c9eaf203ab033cd0360

[eduggs]

Agree with Walt D. about the possibility of first flakes in the 11/10 - 11/12 period. The GFS, EC, CMC, and ICON show a few different possible scenarios to achieve it. Parts of the mid-Atl may even be favored to get flakes before us.

There should be some steep lapse rates and hopefully snow showers if an ULL swings through (ECM/ICON) and/or in the cold northwest flow that develops behind the rain event (GFS).

[ForestHillWx]

We’ve been past peak for 2 weeks, almost all leaves down. Crazy the ranges we get in this forum. 

[bluewave]

Nice pattern coming up for the higher elevations and the Great Lakes snow belts. 
 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nice pattern coming up for the higher elevations and the Great Lakes snow belts. 
 

Lets build that snowpack up north 

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lets build that snowpack up north 

Such a beautiful part of the country. Saranac Lake and surrounding areas are a great vacation spot. It would be fun to take one of these small airlines up there. 

 

 

[gravitylover]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Such a beautiful part of the country. Saranac Lake and surrounding areas are a great vacation spot. It would be fun to take one of these small airlines up there. 

 

 

I'll be in Saranac on Tuesday or Wednesday next week. 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Such a beautiful part of the country. Saranac Lake and surrounding areas are a great vacation spot. It would be fun to take one of these small airlines up there. 

 

 

I've been there winter and summer. It's great in any season really. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be fair with temperatures topping out in the middle and upper 50s. The weekend will be unseasonably mild with Saturday being the warmest day. Highs on Saturday will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 60s. Newark could again approach or reach 70°.

A strong cold front will then bring this season's coldest temperatures so far early next week. Lows would fall well into the 30s in New York City while highs struggle to reach the middle and upper 40s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +27.67 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.510 today. 

 

[manhattanandcatskills]

First flakes up in the Catkills today--about an hour's worth of wet snow coming down in various intensities.  A period of sleet this afternoon, too. It's a little later than usual.

[Roger Smith]

Nov 9-13 may be the only five day interval where some or most people reading this were alive when NYC set its daily record low. After the 9th (1976) two were set in 2017 and two in 2019 (probably on same nights rather than two consecutive nights in each case). 

Two out of three of the winters following these unusual record lows were of course good ones, 2019-20 closer to average by recent standards. Add to this the 2012 snowfall event and this is one of the few times of year to outperform the classic climate of the past in terms of producing cold weather and snow. Not that this necessarily would affect the 30-year average, I suppose there have also been intervals that were well above normal to compensate. The ones that come to mind are a bit earlier such as 1975, 2022 and 2024. 

[Stormlover74]

22 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Nov 9-13 may be the only five day interval where some or most people reading this were alive when NYC set its daily record low. After the 9th (1976) two were set in 2017 and two in 2019 (probably on same nights rather than two consecutive nights in each case). 

Two out of three of the winters following these unusual record lows were of course good ones, 2019-20 closer to average by recent standards. Add to this the 2012 snowfall event and this is one of the few times of year to outperform the classic climate of the past in terms of producing cold weather and snow. Not that this necessarily would affect the 30-year average, I suppose there have also been intervals that were well above normal to compensate. The ones that come to mind are a bit earlier such as 1975, 2022 and 2024. 

2019-20 only had 4.8" at nyc

[psv88]

32.2, maybe going sub 30. 

[qg_omega]

31

[the_other_guy]

32F and frost…first time this season 

[TJW014]

Home is at 41 on the water. Drive 5 minutes inland and it's 22. 

[SnoSki14]

First 20s with 29

[ForestHillWx]

28 here. Nice sunrise. 

[lee59]

30 degrees with frost

[bluewave]

Great radiational cooling here just east of KHVN. This was my first freeze of the season. Down to 28.8° on my new Ambient thermometer. 
 

 

[jm1220]

29 at the closest station to me, all nearby are below 32. First freeze. 

[steve392]

29 degree's this morning at work. Crystal clear skies with a beautiful sunrise.

[IrishRob17]

Heavy frost out there this morning. Went below freezing just before 9pm and got down to 26 this morning, 27 currently. 

[ag3]

First frost here. 
Got down to 36.3

[bluewave]

On 11/3/2025 at 11:41 AM, Nibor said:

I haven’t kept up in the forecasting thread. What’s the seasonal outlook for the PAC jet? Another blowtorch?

The models have had a big shift in the last several days. We are going to get strong blocking next few week. I just posted in the main ENSO thread. Could also be some type of disruption to the SPV.

The million dollar question is if it will in some way be strong enough to shift this Pacific Jet pattern heading into December leading to more benchmark tracks?

December is the key for us during La Niñas. Out of the last 15 La Ninas, the 4” snowfall rule has worked for NYC, LGA, and EWR 14 times. Under 4” in December went onto below normal snowfall like last winter. But if we can find a way to get over 4” this December then we would have a shot a an average to above average snowfall season.

We should know pretty soon in December since all the snow has been frontloaded before December 21st since 2011. Not sure yet if this will work out in our favor, but at least we have something to watch. 
 

 

[psv88]

30 here and all surrounding area below 32. 

[Sundog]

Frosty here this morning

Coldest spot I could find in east Queens was in the middle of the county away from the water on both sides with 33 degrees. 

[uofmiami]

29.9 in Muttontown & 30.3 in Syosset this morning. Did Nassau have any freeze or frost warnings issued? 

[dmillz25]

39 here for the low first 30s of the season. City life

[donsutherland1]

Bridgeport, Islip, and White Plains all experienced their first freeze of the season. 

Today's Low Temperature and First Freeze Data:
Bridgeport: 32°; Last Year: November 13; Normal: November 4
Islip: 32°; Last Year: November 10; Normal: October 28
White Plains: 32°; Last Year: November 13; Normal October 28