Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph at landfall

[mob1]

5 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Guantanamo prisoners running free due to heavy damage?

All kidding aside, they're already gusting past 60 mph there.

[TheDreamTraveler]

8 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Guantanamo prisoners running free due to heavy damage?

I know you're joking but I can guarantee that you'll see AI video of that on social media and people will just automatically believe it lmao

[Roger Smith]

Looks like the track has been deflected towards the ENE and the core is heading for Gitmo. It is also visibly accelerating now, will probably make landfall in Cuba within 3-4 hours. 

As bad as that was for western and central Jamaica, can you imagine the carnage if the core had moved across Kingston and that part of the country? 

[NorthHillsWx]

Did recon turn around?

[Roger Smith]

Would say the core is likely to pass very close to Santiago de Cuba which is a city of over half a million people. It will be a diagonal landfall so the impacts on Guantanamo province further east will also be very strong. And then it's on to Great Inagua in Bahamas. They could have a cat-3 impact by early morning. 

[TJW014]

She's looking like that ex that suddenly appears at the door while you've already cleared a 12 pack. Gorgeous, dangerous, ready for another round

[NeonPeon]

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

She's looking like that ex that suddenly appears at the door while you've already cleared a 12 pack. Gorgeous, dangerous, ready for another round

A little worse for wear too after she ran through Jamaica?

[Coach McGuirk]

Looking at Cuba stats.  In 2015, 11.2 million people lived in Cuba.  In 2025, it was 10.9 million people.  I guess people don't like communism so much. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Looking rather violent:

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=CMaxZH240

[NeonPeon]

13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Looks like the track has been deflected towards the ENE and the core is heading for Gitmo. It is also visibly accelerating now, will probably make landfall in Cuba within 3-4 hours. 

As bad as that was for western and central Jamaica, can you imagine the carnage if the core had moved across Kingston and that part of the country? 

The track certainly could have been worse, if the intensity actually could not have been any worse.

The other thing jamaica escaped was the stall and turn to the north occurring close enough to cause a longer duration heavy rain event. For a time 40+ inches were on the table in the east.

[NeonPeon]

3 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Looking at Cuba stats.  In 2015, 11.2 million people lived in Cuba.  In 2025, it was 10.9 million people.  I guess people don't like communism so much. 

Japan, Portugal, Poland, Croatia... the list goes on and on. Plenty of places have declining population. Even American holdings like Puerto Rico.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looking rather violent:

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=CMaxZH240

 

[HKY_WX]

It's quickly reorganizing but going to run out of water before it can ramp back up too much.

[NeonPeon]

It's a good thing this thing just simply doesn't have much time to work with. The rate at which it recovered intensity is impressive. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Eye rapidly clearing out. How strong can it get before the next landfall? It’s going to push the boundary for rapid recovery post-landfall. 

[NJwx85]

Eye is clearing out again and -80c tops wrapping around the Southern half of the CDO. Guess my hallowed out core post was off base lol.

[NorthHillsWx]

Without engaging in hyperbole this is looking like it might make a run at high end cat 4 even in the few hours until landfall based on satellite trends 

[Floydbuster]

I am amazed at how this thing has never weakened except while crossing Jamaica earlier today. It is an amazing machine of nature.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, Floydbuster said:

I am amazed at how this thing has never weakened except while crossing Jamaica earlier today. It is an amazing machine of nature.

Truly incredible. This and Dorian are in a class of their own in the Atlantic 

[pazzo83]

it just wants to be a monster hurricane.

[NoCORH4L]

40 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I know you're joking but I can guarantee that you'll see AI video of that on social media and people will just automatically believe it lmao

Lol, no doubt. Is it built for hurricanes though? I think they set up a bunch of deportation shelters there as well.  I'm just think about what Michael did to Tyndall, and they're still in a huge rebuilding effort. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Going nuclear… again. Land apparently only inhibitor to Melissa 

[Coach McGuirk]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Going nuclear… again. Land apparently only inhibitor to Melissa 

Back to back Cat 5s!

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Back to back Cat 5s!

How this managed to keep a tight inner core after spending 5+ hours over the mountains with seemingly zero time to reorganize is beyond me. I’m at a loss. If it had been moving quickly over Jamaica, sure. But this thing crawled. And exploded the second it hit water. Looks high end-ish on satellite again. Doubt it goes back to a 5 but at this point I can’t deny the possibility 

[NorthHillsWx]

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=CMaxZH240
 

Guantanamo radar confirms satellite: small eye with violent eyewall reforming. This is bombing out 

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Eye is clearing out again and -80c tops wrapping around the Southern half of the CDO. Guess my hallowed out core post was off base lol.

"I'll show you hollowed out, jerk!!!* -Melissa, probably.

[Random Chaos]

Crazy lightning in the storm again, surrounding the reforming eye.

[mob1]

Recon is going in on a SE to NW pass 

[NorthHillsWx]

To quote monte python, hitting Jamaica “tis but a flesh wound” to Melissa 

[Floydbuster]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Recon is going in on a SE to NW pass 

 

How far can we go until we reach restricted Cuban airspace?