The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Nice and breezy and fall like at least! I’ll take it over our usual October weather of 87 and humid. 

[nj2va]

27 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Nice and breezy and fall like at least! I’ll take it over our usual October weather of 87 and humid. 

Yeah I’m digging the breeze too.

[CAPE]

Dryness aside in some parts, hard to beat how nice and coolish its been from the latter half of August forward. Relatively few above avg temp and high dewpoint days in that stretch.

[CAPE]

Nothing but drizzle here so far. That area of showers to my southeast isnt making much progress northwestward. Any showers will probably come with the wrap around on the backside of the low as it moves north.

[MN Transplant]

0.08".  The majority of models still give us some rain tomorrow.  Otherwise, just dreary.

[SnowtoRain]

0.06", 0.08" "event" total.

[Mrs.J]

I have both my college kids home unexpectedly this weekend. Putting a new perspective on Mother Nature. We get thrown curve balls in weather much like we do in life. 

[Terpeast]

0.07”.  I was out this weekend so I didn’t track this storm, so does anyone remember which models correctly forecasted the evolution of this coastal storm? Take note of that for winter. 

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

0.07”.  I was out this weekend so I didn’t track this storm, so does anyone remember which models correctly forecasted the evolution of this coastal storm? Take note of that for winter. 

Euro AI & ICON were the first to back off this event, if I remember. NAM got schooled big time.

[MillvilleWx]

14 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Increasing consensus that this will be mainly a light to moderate rain chance on the western shore with a heavier footprint on the eastern shore, but still likely to miss out on the worst. The trend the past few nights when doing the QPF was to bring down totals across the Central Mid Atlantic as the evolution would be a detriment to a widespread rainfall as the 5H pattern leads to a disconnect over our area. There will be some rain and some breezy winds, but the heavier precip and stronger wind field forecast from a few days ago has vanished with consensus now in the short term suite. I would imagine it'll still be kind of raw overall, but it won't be a total wash out at this juncture. The only way it could is if the occlusion of the secondary low to the northeast leads to a pinwheel back overhead and gets part of the forum before diminishing and fading out to see on the end of the SLP lifecycle. 

Tough break, but it'll at least moisten things up a little bit without getting fully skunked. 

Going as expected from last nights suite. Just a gloomy day in these parts 

[87storms]

Beautiful dry breeze in Frederick. Just got a road bike sesh in…pavement is mostly dry as well. That drought monitor is gonna start looking colorful soon.

[87storms]

33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Euro AI & ICON were the first to back off this event, if I remember. NAM got schooled big time.

ECMWF has the weather forecasting game on lock.

[Kevin Reilly]

Here is your clue we are getting nothing of significance when it comes to rain:  Dewpoint at 8:30 pm last night 61 dewpoint right now 50f Dry air is winning out up here as it is filtering in from the NNE.

Had a wind gust here of 36 mph.  The sun has been peeking out from time to time too.

Typical La Nina coastal where the blocking gives way and the storm just cannot get going because all the pieces of the storm do not phase together.  This is our calling card probably for the Winter of 2025-2026 with this storm right here.

Maybe we can lucky and score a weak La Nina and get us into the Winter of 1995-1996?

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Weather app says rain next sun/mon. How long until that evaporates?

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Weather app says rain next sun/mon. How long until that evaporates?

Not mine. Mine is dry for the next 15 days lol

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Weather app says rain next sun/mon. How long until that evaporates?

Don't trust anything beyond HR84.

[JenkinsJinkies]

We’re not going to have any more rain this month are we?

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Nice cloudy breezy fall day, I like it. Also model tracking this winter is going to be hilarious. 

[Paleocene]

Nice breeze accumulations today

[Eskimo Joe]

20 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Nice cloudy breezy fall day, I like it. Also model tracking this winter is going to be hilarious. 

Another painful winter I fear. 

[weatherCCB]

Sun peeking out here. Don’t think any model had that.

[Terpeast]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Another painful winter I fear. 

My concern is not so much the winter temps, but the lack of precipitation. Seasonal forecast maps look very very dry here on south. 

[Scraff]

Getting crushed with high clouds and a cute little Autumn breeze. The RAR triple IPA might also be speaking for me. It’s going to be long damn winter. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My concern is not so much the winter temps, but the lack of precipitation. Seasonal forecast maps look very very dry here on south. 

Same. I'm fine with cold and dry. I can't stomach 65 and sunny on Christmas.

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Same. I'm fine with cold and dry. I can't stomach 65 and sunny on Christmas.

The big warmth waits for the 2nd week of January as of late.

[Kevin Reilly]

44 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My concern is not so much the winter temps, but the lack of precipitation. Seasonal forecast maps look very very dry here on south. 

My fear is that the very warm Pacific and Gulf of Mexico just flood the lower 48 with warm air in conjunction with the southeast ridge which has been happening more often than not over the past 5-8 years.  

Always seems we get a powerful Pacific Jet extension that just overwhelms the weather pattern flooding the lower 48 with warm air and locking the cold way north.

[clskinsfan]

Nice fall feeling day out here in the Shenandoah Valley. Knocked out some garden work. Now its beer and football time.

[H2O]

This would just be a nice fall day if there wasn’t a week of storm hype 

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

This would just be a nice fall day if there wasn’t a week of storm hype 

Looks like we’ve seen our last 80 for the year too.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Looks like we’ve seen our last 80 for the year too.

Agreed.