Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We had all those huge -AO/NAOs last winter and no pig and still frequent SE ridges. 

These indices aren't playing out like they used to and that includes the so called pig low 

Last season was the most accurate snowfall forecast I have ever had, and I actually eneded up being too warm. I feel like I have made some adjustments to better account for CC moving forward....not that I'm going ot nail it every year, but hopefully mitigate the disasterous performances.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

.50” breezy but no real gusts out here.  

[Typhoon Tip]

At least we got a decent Saturday ( recently ...), because this, this day is why I don't believe New England is worth it in the long run.  I just find this to be more loathsome than any so-called top 10 day is lovely. There can never be equality in a weather solvency becuase bad vs good? the bad is always that much worse. 

Anyway ... I'd lost track of how many proverbial top 10 days we'd had since mid summer.  Eventually ... some sort of justice ( seeing as New England is clearly persecuted for ever experiencing weather joy ) was going to come calling.  This, here on this day and as evidenced in this satellite shit show below, is the ass of the judge hangin' over us ... midway through a colonoscopy prep

[tunafish]

Coastal York and Cumberland counties here in Southern ME have the lowest precip totals since 8/1, ranging from 2.13" to 3.15" - now the least in NE based on CoCoRAHS obs.

Maybe we turn it around in winter.  Looks like I'll be installing my own NWS precip can this year as the shutdown continues.  My stake could use a resetting, too, but I am less confident in tackling that solo (and I don't think GYX wants me to, either).

And now what's this I hear about a colonoscopy?  I shoulda stayed in bed...

[weatherwiz]

Could be interesting for a few hours early AM from just north of Los Angeles to just north of San Diego 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1.98 two day total so far 

[Lava Rock]

0.00". Where's my 0.5"?

[klw]

49 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

0.00". Where's my 0.5"?

[Ginx snewx]

First big snows NNE elevation Oct 20th within a day or 2

[Damage In Tolland]

75-78 Sunday will be hot 

[ineedsnow]

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

75-78 Sunday will be hot 

Your heat will be on all week 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Your heat will be on all week 

Saturday and Sunday are very warm 

[dryslot]

Flew back into PWM tonight from NOLA and have to say that was a temp shock from 80's the last 5 days to 51°F, Great game though by the Pats.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Flew back into PWM tonight from NOLA and have to say that was a temp shock from 80's the last 5 days to 51°F, Great game though by the Pats.

Nice Jeffafafafa 

[ineedsnow]

18z GEFS gone wild for a coastal early next week

[kdxken]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

18z GEFS gone wild for a coastal early next week

Don't want.

[dryslot]

15 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice Jeffafafafa 

Quite the spectacle, Tailgate all access on the 5th floor of the hotel next door to the stadium, Once inside, Had great seats too.

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

 

[Ginx snewx]

So we are all setup for the alternate yearly Oct 29th bombo. 

[Cold Miser]

9 hours ago, kdxken said:

 

Next you're going to tell me that the movie, The Day After Tomorrow is based on true events.

[kdxken]

11 hours ago, dryslot said:

Quite the spectacle, Tailgate all access on the 5th floor of the building next door to the stadium, Once inside, Had great seats too.

Is that the Hyatt? Used to stay there when I was in New Orleans. Not even sure if it's still there I haven't been for years.

[kdxken]

Now that most people have got their rain can we stop wishing for it? Seems to be working.

[dryslot]

26 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Is that the Hyatt? Used to stay there when I was in New Orleans. Not even sure if it's still there I haven't been for years.

Yes it is.

[dendrite]

38 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Now that most people have got their rain can we stop wishing for it? Seems to be working.

No. We drought.

[moneypitmike]

47 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Now that most people have got their rain can we stop wishing for it? Seems to be working.

Nada up here in Maine from this event.  Some good surf though.

[jsw]

Local station, KEEN, reports .34 inches total. I am about 20 miles away, and that seems right for here, too. We were under a giant hole in the precip most of yesterday.

 

I am happy to see the big totals from parts of New England!

[kdxken]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No. We drought.

Wishing you well as long as we don't get any more.

[Typhoon Tip]

Kerry Emanuel, el al, MIT describe the Polar Low phenomenon in a paper titled, "Polar Lows as Arctic Hurricanes"

The abstract alone is geek's one-eyed monster worth stuff ... 

"Satellite observations of the polar oceans have revealed the presence of small, intense vortices
that often resemble hurricanes, having clear central eyes surrounded by deep convective
clouds. Recent aircraft and drop sonde data also show that these storms, like hurricanes, occur
within deep moist adiabatic atmospheres and possess warm cores...."    ( oh baby; don't forget the step children)

I recall back in 2002, the GGEM of that era had a propensity for fusing, or threatening to do so, CAG originating TC ejecta up along the barolcinic wall east of strong +PNAP trough amplifications  ( ... that's code for Mr Margrave's chart up there in this thread...).  Anyway, Sandy alllllmost succeeded, but I wonder if Sandy teaches us, before ever observing the Sci Fi hyper bomb to best all fantasies, just how hard it is to actually get that to happen. Purely statistical occurrence, Sandy was something like a 1::500 year eturn rate ... does that grossly mean a purer performing phase is 1:1000?   ...10,000?

But that excerpt from Kerry's paper above, does lend some intrigue.  If the thermodynamics in the tropical cyclone are some how comparable in the internal engine of the arctic variant, is it ever possible to go directly from a TC end of the spectrum right to the arctic end, in some kind of fantastic transition event?  It may be one of those deals where it is mathematically possible, but practically so improbable due to everything that has to happen right in precise non-negative interfering order, that it is too unlikely to ever actually be observed.    Still ... man.   How would that look... and would it be mathematically possible to constrain George from blowing a gasket if that was like in the model movies (now that would be bombogenesis).

Either way, that above is not really that.  It's not cold enough...  What that would do is just transition, albeit rapidly, from a TC into either an ETC.  Or, it gets sheared and pulled apart like a star wondering too close to black hole ...getting absorbed into an ongoing ETC genesis.