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O'Brother Septorcher


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50 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I was just looking at that. Certainly an interesting evolution. Cold pool for the win?

yeah... it'll depend on the usual - timing with still some feeble heating potential during the day... But the kinematics look decent from this range.  

The GFS has been demoing terrible continuity with that synoptics of it so, more Euro and/or or Euro/GGEM blended. 

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29 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Surface dews in the 60s, LIs -4, 1000-2000 joules of CAPE.... I'll take my chances.

image.png.f66294e95a296e11085b1b04d32cf66a.png

yeah... this is what I'm seeing.   Timing looks good with rather sudden height falls arriving nearing 18z associated with that rather intensely nucleated cold pool diving in.   Sun matters..

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59 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Surface dews in the 60s, LIs -4, 1000-2000 joules of CAPE.... I'll take my chances.

image.png.f66294e95a296e11085b1b04d32cf66a.png

 

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... this is what I'm seeing.   Timing looks good with rather sudden height falls arriving nearing 18z associated with that rather intensely nucleated cold pool diving in.   Sun matters..

As long as it's not an all day rain event like this past Sunday.  Garage sale rained out. Would like to try again this Sunday.

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33 minutes ago, tamarack said:

36° with fog this morning, 34° without fog yesterday.

Was quite foggy this morning, Starting to take down the garden, Game Cams are out, Going to be in the woods in a couple weeks, From what i can see, Not as many acorns dropping this year like last year.

IMG_7534.thumb.png.5d6f0f64934737d2dd00a511cbfa9940.png

016578000124369-65-2-09092025041918-V-SYFW00115.jpeg

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I still suggest this should be watched on Sunday ...

image.png.9510ee5cd7169e7d2c0d3a58d890eece.png

Just looked at the 6z GFS...figured you would have certainly said something. 

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Surface dews in the 60s, LIs -4, 1000-2000 joules of CAPE.... I'll take my chances.

image.png.f66294e95a296e11085b1b04d32cf66a.png

Big change from yesterday with that Sunday shortwave. You have adequate shear with steep mid-level lapse rates driven by a strong cold pool with sfc dews in the 60's. Good recipe for hailers and strong downbursts. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Just looked at the 6z GFS...figured you would have certainly said something. 

Big change from yesterday with that Sunday shortwave. You have adequate shear with steep mid-level lapse rates driven by a strong cold pool with sfc dews in the 60's. Good recipe for hailers and strong downbursts. 

Yep. Worth keeping an eye on is all.

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