Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    18,182
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

Hurricane Erin: 150 MPH - 934mb - W @ 15

BarryStantonGBP
 Share

Predict her peak  

53 members have voted

  1. 1. Predict Erin’s peak

  2. 2. Will Erin landfall?

    • Yes (CONUS)
      9
    • Yes (Canada)
      9
    • Yes (Bermuda including brush)
      5
    • Yes (The Caribbean)
      2
    • No
      24

Recommended Posts

  • BarryStantonGBP changed the title to Hurricane Erin: 160 MPH / 917 MB!!!
  • Replies 458
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

dbullsfan
dbullsfan

I’m sure a lot of us quietly would love a storm to track and love the natural beauty of big storms, but maybe don’t openly act so excited and seemingly be rooting for a devastating storm. Real lives a

Windspeed
Windspeed

I dare say Erin has continued to deepen merely looking at radar and satellite imagery. We may be looking at a sub 910 hPa Atlantic hurricane now. This eyewall has taken on Irma and Dorian visuals for

DDweatherman
DDweatherman

When tracking season gets heavy we’re gonna need a muzzle for Barry

Posted Images

  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Erin: 160 MPH - 917mb - W @ 17
BooneWX

BooneWX

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Hard to discern what is going on wet the ERC. Usually the outer eyewall contract, but in this case it seems lt be doing the opposite 

Purely a guess but it is feeling a bit of shear from the north. I think it’s successfully disrupting the attempts to establish an outer eyewall but it’s just simply too intense of an inner core to be bothered by the same shear. An absolute unit of a storm. Parallels are hard to draw but the San Juan radar reminds me so much of Charley. 
 

compact little donut. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Boston Bulldog

Boston Bulldog

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

We throw a lot of faith on models despite the GFS just initializing at 982mb at 12z. 

While the GFS’s initialization was egregiously high, in a storm with a small intense inner core like this, it will always be playing catchup. Global models simply do not have the granular resolution to initialize a small core correctly, especially in a genuinely extreme RI scenario. Their resolution is far too coarse.

Only telescoping models like HAFS have the ability to initialize a storm with Erin’s structure correctly

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted

I mentioned earlier that Erin is embedded in an above mean background pressure regime. So if we get readings down near 910 hPa before Erin levels off, we may see some higher sustained winds yet. We saw this during Dorian and Irma near their peaks, though I'm not saying Erin will get that intense. 150 kts/175 mph sustained doesn't seem unreasonable now, however.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted

St. Maarten's radar is in closer proximity to Erin's core and, therefore, has better returns from the northern semicircle of Erin's outer circulation. As such, concentric banding is a little more evident here. Perhaps even with a moat forming in-between the northern outer band and Erin's northern eyewall. So we may not be long from an EWRC initiating now during peak intensity. Very thankful recon made those few final passes earlier.

b9e1d23f01e8e4883234a1d0fed1adac.gif



  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Erin: 150 MPH - 934mb - W @ 15

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...