OBS-Discussion General" 1-2" rainfall 2PM today (7/30)-2PM Fri 8/1/25 with small pockets 4-7" possible but may be just off the edge of our NYC subforum

[wdrag]

Follow NWS warnings-statements. A flood watch has just been issued by the NWS for a portion of the NYC subforum.

I'd prepare for some delays Thursday-Thursday evening, possibly a few detours. If a road is flooded, don't cross it---turn around-done drown.  Not worth the risk. 

We dont know where exactly 4+" of rain should occur but the potential exists as a slow moving frontal boundary possibly ends as a near northeast gale for LI.

Plenty of PWAT (1.5"+) along with the RRQ of a strong confluence zone 5h-3H et across northern Maine-the Maritimes causes large scale overrunning of the southward sagging frontal boundary Thursday-Thursday night when the bulk of the heavy rain occurs. 

For now, it appears the region from I78 northward is vulnerable to excessive short fuse runoff but the HREF added graphic shows the isolated 7+ inches POTENTIAL(browns from the legend) just south and west of our NYC subforum. Nevertheless, this should be a somewhat interesting 48 hour period.

For reference have added the 12z Wed 7/30 ensembles CMCE, EPS, GEFS as well as the 48 hour MEAN rainfall from the SPC HREF ending 12z Friday with magenta 1.5"+, and the MAX potential rainfall from the HREF which suggests isolated 7-possibly 10" but primarily southwest of the NYC subforum.  See legend but dont take location verbatim and. dont necessarily believe 7+ can occur.  

Antecedent conditions are not excessively wet so large rivers are not likely to flood, but small streams, especially near urban areas could see overflow Flash Flood response.

[wdrag]

To get this started brief heavy showers have dropped at least 1 to 3 tenths of an inch in far nw NJ and se NYS since 2PM. 

[gravitylover]

Significant cell appears to be descending on me from the NW but may miss by a mile or two. Temp is down 6-7° since the clouds moved so that's nice.

[happyclam13]

[donsutherland1]

For reference for July 31:

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference for July 31:

wow that was a lot of rain on July 31, 1996-- over 3.5 inches at JFK, what happened Don?

I remember Bertha from July 1996 but that was much earlier in the month!

 

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow that was a lot of rain on July 31, 1996-- over 3.5 inches at JFK, what happened Don?

I remember Bertha from July 1996 but that was much earlier in the month!

 

Low pressure moving along a nearly stationary front produced heavy thunderstorms with flash flooding in parts of the region. A snippet from the NWS:

000 
TTAA00 KNYC 311600
FFWNYC
NYC047-059-081-103-NYZ501-311800-
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1200 PM EDT WED JUL 31 1996
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNING EFFECTIVE UNTIL
200 PM EDT FOR THE PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
 
IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
 
   ...KINGS COUNTY...NASSAU COUNTY...QUEENS COUNTY
   ...WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY
   ...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
 
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN SUFFOLK...
NASSAU...QUEENS...AND KINGS COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM.
 
A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MORICHES INLET UNTIL 2 PM.
 
A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EFFECT THE WARNING
AREA PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CAUSED WIDESPREAD STREET...ROADWAY...AND
BASEMENT FLOODING.
 
AT 1200 PM THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING OVER NASSAU COUNTY AND
THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF JONES BEACH. THE STORMS WILL EFFECT
WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND ADJACENT WATERS SHORTLY. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER QUEENS AND KINGS COUNTY BY 1 PM AS THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST.
 
THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HEAVY FLOODING RAINS AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

[allgame830]

I’m surprised this thread isn’t getting more attention

[Stormlover74]

Anywhere from .25 to 7"

[psv88]

Have a golf outing tomorrow, shot gun start at 1 pm. Will probably be wet

[lee59]

Picked up .22 here this evening.

[coastalplainsnowman]

42 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Have a golf outing tomorrow, shot gun start at 1 pm. Will probably be wet

Supposed to play Friday afternoon.  Probably gonna be one of those days where it's reasonable out by late morning but it's moot because the course never opened due to overnight rain.

[Dark Star]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Low pressure moving along a nearly stationary front produced heavy thunderstorms with flash flooding in parts of the region. A snippet from the NWS:

000 
TTAA00 KNYC 311600
FFWNYC
NYC047-059-081-103-NYZ501-311800-
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1200 PM EDT WED JUL 31 1996
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNING EFFECTIVE UNTIL
200 PM EDT FOR THE PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
 
IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
 
   ...KINGS COUNTY...NASSAU COUNTY...QUEENS COUNTY
   ...WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY
   ...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
 
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN SUFFOLK...
NASSAU...QUEENS...AND KINGS COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM.
 
A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MORICHES INLET UNTIL 2 PM.
 
A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EFFECT THE WARNING
AREA PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CAUSED WIDESPREAD STREET...ROADWAY...AND
BASEMENT FLOODING.
 
AT 1200 PM THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING OVER NASSAU COUNTY AND
THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF JONES BEACH. THE STORMS WILL EFFECT
WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND ADJACENT WATERS SHORTLY. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER QUEENS AND KINGS COUNTY BY 1 PM AS THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST.
 
THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HEAVY FLOODING RAINS AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

So is this from your own personal archives, or available to the public through the NWS?

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

So is this from your own personal archives, or available to the public through the NWS?

It’s available here: 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml

[wdrag]

Sampling of rainfall in narrow groups-swaths roughly 2PM yesterday- 8AM this morning. Click for clarity.  Interesting 15 hours ahead. 

At 838AM added the NJ and NYS climate mesonet 24 hours amounts.  

[Dark Star]

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s available here: 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml

Wow!  Thanks!!!

[Stormlover74]

Going to be places that get next to nothing from this esp west and south of the city while newrby locations pick up 3 to 5". Alot of people freaking out on fb about a potential July 14th repeat

[donsutherland1]

From the 7/31 0z HREF:

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Going to be places that get next to nothing from this esp west and south of the city while newrby locations pick up 3 to 5". Alot of people freaking out on fb about a potential July 14th repeat

Impossible to really say at this point. Encouraging that the models have storms surviving east of the city but we just have to see how it evolves. 

[IrishRob17]

Some loud thunder and heavy downpours earlier this morning with .33 thru the tipper so far, 67/66.

[Snowlover11]

Real winners north and west of the city.

[Picard]

Interesting.  That guidance shows a gap over my area again.
I've only picked up about 0.4" of rain in the past 3+weeks and the lawns are all brown.  
I've watched it go around us, mostly to the north, and a couple to the south. To the north again this morning.

[winterwx21]

54 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Going to be places that get next to nothing from this esp west and south of the city while newrby locations pick up 3 to 5". Alot of people freaking out on fb about a potential July 14th repeat

It is very dry here right now, so I'm hoping for some heavy rain. I'll take the 1 to 2 inches that this HRRR run shows for our area, but of course we don't want the huge flooding amounts that this run shows for Monmouth County. Obviously it's difficult for the model to pinpoint exactly where those jackpot amounts will occur. The next run will probably look different. Who knows. 

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It is very dry here right now, so I'm hoping for some heavy rain. I'll take the 1 to 2 inches that this HRRR run shows for our area, but of course we don't want the huge flooding amounts that this run shows for Monmouth County. Obviously it's difficult for the model to pinpoint exactly where those jackpot amounts will occur. The next run will probably look different. Who knows. 

yeah 13z still targeting us but who knows. it will bounce around for sure

 

[SnoSki14]

Pass on the flooding. This air mass is ripe, someone is seeing 2"+ hr rates easily 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pass on the flooding. This air mass is ripe, someone is seeing 2"+ hr rates easily 

sunnier than expected as things have slowed down-already 85 in alot of places including here.

[Maureen]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pass on the flooding. This air mass is ripe, someone is seeing 2"+ hr rates easily 

Carteret put out a message that we could be in the bull’s-eye, could be 5 to 7 inches of rain, expect flooding, stay off the road, etc. I don’t want anyone to see that much water! At least they’re being more proactive than usual, because it’s damn near a guarantee we’re going to flood, it’s just a matter of how badly.

I wish everyone good luck and safety.

 

[weathermedic]

Looks like a line of showers/storms developing on radar over eastern PA

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

sunnier than expected as things have slowed down-already 85 in alot of places including here.

A lot of fuel. I could see someone approaching 8-9" in short order. 

[Stormlover74]

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