August 2025 Summer Thread

[FXWX]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That would be nasty here now that I look at it. 

Obviously beyond speculation time frame, but the modeled back side winds usually don't verify; chop off at least 30%.

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah it's not even worth discussing.  But we do lol

[Torch Tiger]

Take 1954 Hurricane Carol and transplant 100  or 200? mi or whatever east/southeast, it'd cause a shitload of damage over SE MA.  It's not a halficane situation or what not, SST's are relatively warm.  If any system to were get caught up in that tropical environment, it wouldn't just go ET in a minute.

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah for fantasy range it’s slightly interesting. Less the storm than the overall steering pattern, which has looked pretty consistent (thus far) for an EC threat if there’s a wave that can ride into the SW Atlantic.

[bristolri_wx]

6 hours ago, tamarack said:

Depends on location, of course.  Gloria did a lot of damage between AUG and the midcoast.  At that time, I was commuting weekly from Fort Kent, having just begun my forester position for the state.  I'd drive south Sunday evening and home Friday evening, but Gov. Brennan sent the state workers home at noon before Gloria hit so I got to drive home in daylight.  Up north it was like a garden variety fall storm.

We lived in Gardiner for Bob, and i dropped 6.41", the biggest calendar precip I've recorded.  It brought 60+ gusts and is the only TC I've experienced that had backside wind as strong as front side, though 95% of the RA came before the switch.  It's in a near tie for 4th strongest I've seen, with Doria (Aug. 71) and the 1982 April damage.

In terms of tree damage from wind, Dec 18, 2023 was probably worse than Bob, even with wind ~10 mph less.  Bob's peak wind lasted less than an hour while 12/23 kept roaring for 4.  (Trivia note:  Last night's episode of Maine Cabin Masters was at Cobbossee Lake, a from-scratch build after pines obliterated the original cabin in that storm.)

I believe I've mentioned this in another Bob post/thread, but Bob's eye went right over Bristol.  We went outside and did some quick cleanup as the eye came through.  Pretty surreal - lots of tree damage in East Bay of RI with that storm!  No power for 3 days or so, at least at my apartment on 114.

[Torch Tiger]

8 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I believe I've mentioned this in another Bob post/thread, but Bob's eye went right over Bristol.  We went outside and did some quick cleanup as the eye came through.  Pretty surreal - lots of tree damage in East Bay of RI with that storm!  No power for 3 days or so, at least at my apartment on 114.

the eye broke up and strongest sfc winds went way east. mid-lower cape had the strongest winds  BID aside. yeah it was a big'un, no power for two weeks in East Falmouth, MA.  Remnant eye went overhead.  Yore

[Torch Tiger]

41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah for fantasy range it’s slightly interesting. Less the storm than the overall steering pattern, which has looked pretty consistent (thus far) for an EC threat if there’s a wave that can ride into the SW Atlantic.

This. There's nothing worth tracking, but anything that pops could quickly become worthy

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I'll stop when you tell the truth.. not every site is 68 to 70 in Tolland most are in the mid 60s 

just so everyone else can try just hit change station and a map will pop up with all the Tolland sites.. scroll down to see the dewpoints 

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/ct/tolland/KCTTOLLA105

A very good luck with that…

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Take 1954 Hurricane Carol and transplant 100  or 200? mi or whatever east/southeast, it'd cause a shitload of damage over SE MA.  It's not a halficane situation or what not, SST's are relatively warm.  If any system to were get caught up in that tropical environment, it wouldn't just go ET in a minute.

I remember Carol.  Where I was (71 summers ago, age 7) in NNJ. Carol passed east of us.  The Beech tree in our front yard toppled-it was quite a big blow and got me hooked on hurricanes.  We were rewarded with 2 more hits that season!

[kdxken]

Longest heat wave of the summer next week? Looks possible.

[Lava Rock]

Longest heat wave of the summer next week? Looks possible.

Lawns are hurting

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Lawns are hurting

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

Not going to get better anytime soon. If you missed the last rain it's going to be quite a stretch.

[kdxken]

Maybe cuz it's not there? He's in for some trolling next week.

[CoastalWx]

40 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Maybe cuz it's not there? He's in for some trolling next week.

The irony is that he’s telling us about all this cool air over the northeast and that map shows exactly the opposite. I don’t think anyone was disputing a weak cool front over the planes.

[dendrite]

The great cold front of Mid August 2025 looks impressive.

[Damage In Tolland]

The fact people keep posting his tweets here gives him more clicks and folks talking about him . He thanks you 

[DavisStraight]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The irony is that he’s telling us about all this cool air over the northeast and that map shows exactly the opposite. I don’t think anyone was disputing a weak cool front over the planes.

The ones at Ohare?

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

The ones at Ohare?

Dam voice over 

[CoastalWx]

Euro is hot. Oh boy oh boy oh boy oh boy.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The great cold front of Mid August 2025 looks impressive.

But but the models won't be able to sniff it out until it's right in our backyard. You need to use the Moregarbage model to get ahead of it

[weatherwiz]

Will be interesting to see if we get showers overspreading the region tonight. The 3km has been pretty consistent with this. It also I think kind of overdoes light precip but it (along with the HRRR) have that slug of precip. off NJ 

[weatherwiz]

oof check out how clueless the NAMs were on that midwest MCS lol. 6z run had his thing in Minnesota 

[Typhoon Tip]

you get the feeling that idiosyncrasies are teaming up to dim summer though.  Smoke this, correcting toward over top highs that ( which import too much E wind ).  

This week was not going to be BN in the guidance and only turned out that way because of mitigating factors very poorly or not represented a week ago.  Meanwhile, lower Asia over to Japan is apparently breaking all kinds of staggering high heat records...

We are exiting the solar max in under a week.  The first couple of weeks of the solar transition season that begins then will still feature hot enough sun - so it's not an all or nothing environmental aspect, it's a 'turning down the dimmer switch' thing.  But, smoke days, and/or poorly models purely chaotically emerged confluence causing over-the-top heavy with +PP, we can't really do that while losing solar potency and expect things to toast up. So, I wouldn't call it "breaking summer's back" ...but it's not a hot implication.  

It's not helping ( me personally ) that both the spatial layout and telecon, both, are pretty nominal for heat at the moment.   The operational runs also deflated some of the geopotential medium  along 40 N E of Chicago, so ... they may still be showing some heat in their 2-m temperature distributions and so forth, but -deltas in the overarching metric, while these reasons to not get warm keep happening ... that's not really sending much confidence in heat, either.  Stop with the idiosyncratic mitigators would help...

That all said, I don't see a significant cold front, nor any compelling reason when studying the recency of the mass fields and the numerics therefrom, that argue for that, either. 

Mostly, it all looks rather torpid and frankly kind of a boring mid month.   Things can change.  Again, I wouldn't 86 the outlook for remainder of summer, either.

I'm not buying any of the TCs up the EC by the GFS, which does this every year as seemingly perfunctory seasonal error by that model.   There's are certain and significant correlated climatologically based structures all but required in the larger flow scheme, that do not include what the GFS is attempting to do.  

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you get the feeling that idiosyncrasies are teaming up to dim summer though.  Smoke this, correcting toward over top highs that ( which import too much E wind ).  

This week was not going to be BN in the guidance and only turned out that way because of mitigating factors very poorly or not represented a week ago.  Meanwhile, lower Asia over to Japan is apparently breaking all kinds of staggering high heat records...

We are exiting the solar max in under a week.  The first couple of weeks of the solar transition season that begins then will still feature hot enough sun - so it's not an all or nothing environmental aspect, it's a 'turning down the dimmer switch' thing.  But, smoke days, and/or poorly models purely chaotically emerged confluence causing over-the-top heavy with +PP, we can't really do that while losing solar potency and expect things to toast up. So, I wouldn't call it "breaking summer's back" ...but it's not a hot implication.  

It's not helping ( me personally ) that both the spatial layout and telecon, both, are pretty nominal for heat at the moment.   The operational runs also deflated some of the geopotential medium  along 40 N E of Chicago, so ... they may still be showing some heat in their 2-m temperature distributions and so forth, but -deltas in the overarching metric, while these reasons to not get warm keep happening ... that's not really sending much confidence in heat, either.  Stop with the idiosyncratic mitigators would help...

That all said, I don't see a significant cold front, nor any compelling reason when studying the recency of the mass fields and the numerics therefrom, that argue for that, either. 

Mostly, it all looks rather torpid and frankly kind of a boring mid month.   Things can change.  Again, I wouldn't 86 the outlook for remainder of summer, either.

I'm not buying any of the TCs up the EC by the GFS, which does this every year as seemingly perfunctory seasonal error by that model.   There's are certain and significant correlated climatologically based structures all but required in the larger flow scheme, that do not include what the GFS is attempting to do.  

This week was BN on all EPS ensemble next week is a torch.

[CoastalWx]

Been in the 80s inland though. Not really that cool over interior. Bootleg erly flow.

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Been in the 80s inland though. Not really that cool over interior. Bootleg erly flow.

it was a smoke front

[SouthCoastMA]

maybe some smoke relief from the east later

[TheClimateChanger]

Interesting temperature pattern yesterday in the northeast. Map below shows yesterday's high temperature percentile. Much of the interior decidedly above the median high temperature - generally 70 to 85 percentile. Buffalo was only a few degrees shy of a record, topping out at 89F as an odd easterly flow brought some downsloping sending the warmest temperatures to the lakeshore (typically cooler locations). The coastal Plain was pretty close to the median - generally from about the 33rd to 67th percentile, except for Boston, which didn't make it out of the low 70s. The ASOS at Logan is very close to the water. Big divergence from BOS to Blue Hill Observatory (Milton, Mass.) just to the south. Cooler high temperatures in West Virginia from clouds and showers.

[Sn0waddict]

Assuming it’s wrong , but on Tuesday the EURO shows temps in the mid to upper 90s but with dewpoints barely in the 50s. Don’t see that around here much..

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Assuming it’s wrong , but on Tuesday the EURO shows temps in the mid to upper 90s but with dewpoints barely in the 50s. Don’t see that around here much..

Our highest temps typically have lower dewpoints. Lots of humidity in the air make it harder to get very hot temps.