August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Dark Star]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Yes. I only remember talking about wildfire smoke one time in my life before the last couple of years, and that was summer 2002 with the fires in Quebec. 

Admittingly, I don't remember as a kid, growing up in the 60's, then all they way up to a few years ago.  Maybe I didn't notice?

[Sundog]

31 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Admittingly, I don't remember as a kid, growing up in the 60's, then all they way up to a few years ago.  Maybe I didn't notice?

I don't think you didn't notice, I don't think it was happening. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Yes. I only remember talking about wildfire smoke one time in my life before the last couple of years, and that was summer 2002 with the fires in Quebec. 

Yeah, we would get smaller Canadian wildfires back in those days. We even had smoke in the late 80s from wildfires in the Appalachians.

But the Canadian wildfires have been at record levels since 2023. June 6-8, 2023 was a first for our area having such thick smoke. A recent study found that the smoke dropped our temperatures by 5°F.

https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/worst-air-quality-world-wildfire-smog-smothers-new-york

The Wednesday morning air quality was bad. The day began in the “red” with AQIs in the 151-200 range. An AQI in that range has only occurred a handful of times in the last few decades in the city. Still, New Yorkers tried to continue with their daily routine activities. By late Wednesday morning, the grey blob as seen from the ABI visible band on GOES satellite, showed the highest concentration of smoke flowing across Lake Ontario, Upstate New York and into the City region. Shortly after, the skies went dark over the city by 2pm, and air quality continued to worsen through the evening.

The AQI was above 480 on Wednesday evening in NYC, technically off the chart. NYC’s air quality was quickly compared to large cities in India and China known for their chronic pollution. At that point, New York City had the worst air quality in the world. The pollution was bad enough to cancel outdoor after-school activities for the 1.1 million students in the largest public school system in the country, and prompt a shift to remote learning for the following days.

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1306?af=R#:~:text=During the fire season of,(NYC) and its surroundings.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02214-3

 

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

I don’t remember wild fire smoke being this much of an issue when I was a kid. Maybe once or twice, but it’s an annual occurrence now. Is it happening more?

Others would know a lot more than me but the last few years have set records in Canada for wildfires. Probably a combination of higher temps, less rain and less snow in the winter. 

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Others would know a lot more than me but the last few years have set records in Canada for wildfires. Probably a combination of higher temps, less rain and less snow in the winter. 

The weather may cause the fires to be more severe by having more dry conditions that adds fuel to the fire. Except for lightning, the fires are set by people or things like power lines. The vast majority of the fires would probably never exist if it wasn't for human intervention of some kind.

[lee59]

59 degrees last night, first 50s here since June 16th

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we would get smaller Canadian wildfires back in those days. We even had smoke in the late 80s from wildfires in the Appalachians.

We sure did and the media was all over it. Low of 54, currently 75. 

[nycwinter]

now that we hit august you can see the light at the end of the tunnel it wont be long now when you can wear your hoodie on a everyday basis..

[donsutherland1]

A break in the heat is now underway. The day started with another round of unseasonably cool readings. Low temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 62°
Danbury: 55°
Farmingdale: 60°
Islip: 60°
New Haven: 61°
New York City-Central Park: 63° 
New York City-JFK Airport: 62°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 65°
Newark: 62°
Philadelphia: 64°
Poughkeepsie: 52°
White Plains: 58°

Generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through the first week of August. It could briefly turn warmer for Monday and Tuesday before another somewhat cooler air mass arrives. The frontal passage will likely be dry for most of the region. 

There remain hints on the long-range guidance that a new round of heat could develop around August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was -8.01 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.017 today. 

 

[winterwx21]

50 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

now that we hit august you can see the light at the end of the tunnel it wont be long now when you can wear your hoodie on a everyday basis..

Models are looking hot in the long range though. Enjoy the fairly comfortable first 8 or 9 days of August. We're probably going to have a heat wave during the 2nd week of the month. 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

now that we hit august you can see the light at the end of the tunnel it wont be long now when you can wear your hoodie on a everyday basis..

The second half of November is right around the corner! Love me some hoodie season.

[WestBabylonWeather]

45 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Models are looking hot in the long range though. Enjoy the fairly comfortable first 8 or 9 days of August. We're probably going to have a heat wave during the 2nd week of the month. 

I wish it was a little warmer right now. 74 is ok but wish it was warmer 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

now that we hit august you can see the light at the end of the tunnel it wont be long now when you can wear your hoodie on a everyday basis..

Peak sun angle and late June type heat is done but there's plenty of heat left. 

Looks really dull 1st half of August though but models are starting to ramp up the tropics so 2nd half will be more interesting 

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

now that we hit august you can see the light at the end of the tunnel it wont be long now when you can wear your hoodie on a everyday basis..

1 month from now is the light at the end of the tunnel moment. September can still be damn hot