July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[SouthCoastMA]

eh, so much for the Cotuit/Wareham CCBL game I was going to on Friday

[BrianW]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks run of the mill now on most models....although we can use any rain we can get here-very dry

Yeah. Was working on a house near BDR last week and everything is torched to a crisp there. 

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Looked to me like the whole blend bumped S a little bit. 

That may not be caused by repositioning the track of that frontal mess, per se.  It could also be an artifact of that amplitude flattening - a problem we've discussed ad nauseam in the past, where the models sometimes have trouble maintaining mid/ext outlook amplitude when relaying into short ranges.   Hard to tell precisely, as this scenario with rain/amts on Thur/Fri looks pretty sensitive to very subtle physical perturbation, anyway, so -

I just see the 00z UKMET type solution as not impossible at least in principle.  It may be overdoing that suppression some sure.

[weatherwiz]

Absolutely beautiful outside. Already feel the process of my body beginning to produce sweat. There is nothing like feeling the hot, strong sun beat down on you and the tingles you get when the sweat producing process commences. I mean this is gold, everyone loves it. The birds are happy, praying mantis are happy, people have smiles on their faces. Feel it, embrace it, love it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

South trend 

[dendrite]

Looks wetter up here lol

At least on mesos

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks run of the mill now on most models....although we can use any rain we can get here-very dry

June-July rain so far is 3.94".  Driest June-July 1998-2024 here was 5.02" in 2004.  I think that mark is toast.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

54 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Absolutely beautiful outside. Already feel the process of my body beginning to produce sweat. There is nothing like feeling the hot, strong sun beat down on you and the tingles you get when the sweat producing process commences. I mean this is gold, everyone loves it. The birds are happy, praying mantis are happy, people have smiles on their faces. Feel it, embrace it, love it. 

Nobody, and I mean NoBody, likes a sweaty boy.

[SJonesWX]

2.5" here since June 8 (1.4 MTD). It's been dry

[Torch Tiger]

Perfect wx in Duxbury. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Perfect wx in Deluxbury. 

 

[weatherwiz]

Leaning in the direction of lower rainfall amounts for end of week versus anything over the top. The bulk of the convection that develops tonight and Wednesday from SD/NE/MA/IA is going to end up riding the instability boundary and trucking into the mid-Atlantic where the greatest instability is and that is going to rob a ton of available moisture. We'll likely see downpours and thunderstorms ahead of the front Thursday but widespread significant rainfall totals I don't think will be happening. Just a typical fropa with downpours and thunderstorms ahead of it. 

[weatherwiz]

Also looks good for transient supercells across Maine tomorrow...maybe even a little localized enhanced tornado potential towards the coast and around Portland. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Absolutely beautiful outside. Already feel the process of my body beginning to produce sweat. There is nothing like feeling the hot, strong schlong of a big dude beat down on you and the tingles you get when the sweat producing process commences. I mean this is gold, everyone loves it. The birds are happy, praying mantis are happy, people have smiles on their faces getting  laid. Feel it, grab your ankles, embrace it, love it. 

Pray for a cold front.....FAST.

[Torch Tiger]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Like Bucksbury?

[weatherwiz]

I don't think we're going to see much, if any, convection down this way tomorrow. Looks like we're pretty capped and the LFC is pretty high and separated from the LCL. Probably just see stuff develop across the high terrain of PA/NY which slides east but kind of dissipates. Debating whether we may have a chance to see a few storms pop during the evening but forcing looks pretty limited. 

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, BrianW said:

Yeah. Was working on a house near BDR last week and everything is torched to a crisp there. 

 

 

 

For a second i read that as BDL. We have had SO much rain out this way, it amazes me how dry it is to the east

[weatherwiz]

What a difference between the 6z/12z NAM in how it handles the convective development and evolution tonight/tomorrow  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Leaning in the direction of lower rainfall amounts for end of week versus anything over the top. The bulk of the convection that develops tonight and Wednesday from SD/NE/MA/IA is going to end up riding the instability boundary and trucking into the mid-Atlantic where the greatest instability is and that is going to rob a ton of available moisture. We'll likely see downpours and thunderstorms ahead of the front Thursday but widespread significant rainfall totals I don't think will be happening. Just a typical fropa with downpours and thunderstorms ahead of it. 

I think mostly average heavy rain with a passing cold front for many but the fact that this looks to stall for a time will lead to a significantly heavy rainfall axis and jack zone

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

What a difference between the 6z/12z NAM in how it handles the convective development and evolution tonight/tomorrow  

Jumping all over the place...will be a nowcast or at best a 12 hr call...

[kdxken]

Yeah looks real smoky. (Confused)

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I think mostly average heavy rain with a passing cold front for many but the fact that this looks to stall for a time will lead to a significantly heavy rainfall axis and jack zone

Yeah whether this stalls or not is going to be a huge key. The front does become parallel to the upper flow which would be an indication that it will stall...just a matter of where. 

[CoastalWx]

I think there will definitely be one of those 4-6" zones in a narrow area. 

[kdxken]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think there will definitely be one of those 4-6" zones in a narrow area. 

Hope it's not here.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Jumping all over the place...will be a nowcast or at best a 12 hr call...

Can essentially nowcast this tonight and early tomorrow morning by watching how the convection develops and evolves centered around Iowa. Too me I think the 12z NAM is wayyy over aggressive with the northward extent of that convection and how intense it is and its going bonkers with the dynamics. 

[kdxken]

What a difference wind direction makes. I'm going to have to dig around for a buoy. 

 

[weatherwiz]

Well I shouldn't say its too far north but I think its intensity by the NAM is being way overplayed and its resulting in dynamics going wild. 

[dendrite]

11a

[metagraphica]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think there will definitely be one of those 4-6" zones in a narrow area. 

 

17 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Hope it's not here.

Hope it's here.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Also looks good for transient supercells across Maine tomorrow...maybe even a little localized enhanced tornado potential towards the coast and around Portland. 

Damn Just left Maine today, not going back til Thursday for my final trip, gonna miss it.