July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The extended is slightly above-average and probably some days well above average as we would likely get pieces of max 850 temps shunted our way at times. 

Goodluck maybe a couple  hot days but we're pretty much average after next week maybe even slightly below for a bit in my opinion

[ineedsnow]

Not bad for a mean 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

The west and Midwest will bake

You made identical posts in June about Julorch 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wonder why that ACATT didn’t post this? He’s posted every other Creepywxguys Tweets

https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1947343296583369026?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You made identical posts in June about Julorch 

I literally said I was wrong and said it was still coming  Midwest and west will be best after next week.. remember how you said no 40s anywhere and a top 5 Summer with no cool shots in sight?

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder why that ACATT didn’t post this? He’s posted every other Creepywxguys Tweets

https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1947343296583369026?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

End of the week looks hot before we cool again

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Average at best

End of month first week of Aug will be dewed down for sure as 850s flex in se canada from polar blocking. 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

36 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As I mentioned a while ago..the majority of people here do not really LOVE winter....many people here like snow but not winter....we are in the minority when it comes to loving winter...

Love of wx is conditional for many. Not passing judgement…

[weatherwiz]

It's an overall above-average pattern with brief cool shots mixed in which are the product of a post FROPA airmass but within 2-3 days of the FROPA any troughing flattens out and we begin building heights. The southern ridge has been flexing west/east for the last month-plus...deviations west/east in the ridge axis doesn't quantify as a pattern change. It's just like today/tomorrow...these are the product of ripping a decent FROPA through and is something which should be more common for us given our latitude. This isn't a "broken back" its our climatology. 

[kdxken]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's an overall above-average pattern with brief cool shots mixed in which are the product of a post FROPA airmass but within 2-3 days of the FROPA any troughing flattens out and we begin building heights. The southern ridge has been flexing west/east for the last month-plus...deviations west/east in the ridge axis doesn't quantify as a pattern change. It's just like today/tomorrow...these are the product of ripping a decent FROPA through and is something which should be more common for us given our latitude. This isn't a "broken back" its our climatology. 

"The southern ridge has been flexing west/east for the last month-plus...deviations west/east in the ridge axis doesn't quantify as a pattern change"

100%

[kdxken]

Summer Day of yore.

 

 

[weatherwiz]

A wild card too late next week and into the first week of August is the western Atlantic ridge. There is a possibility the degree of troughing across the East is overdone as well, especially if there is a greater connection of the southern ridge and WAR. Now, we'll probably see some sort of trough because there will be a weakness in the ridge and there will be shortwaves/developing FROPAs. But IMO, we are far more likely to see above average and well above at times versus anything else (again, outside for a day or two behind a FROPA). 

[dryslot]

Some cool pool showers over DE Maine this afternoon on Radar.

[Torch Tiger]

28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

End of month first week of Aug will be dewed down for sure as 850s flex in se canada from polar blocking. 

 

 

polar blocking? lol  it's a short-lived cool shot as things are moving along quickly.  Not blocky at all 

[ineedsnow]

75/43 feels amazing out.. should be in the 40s again tonight 

[dendrite]

70.8F may do it for the day.

[ineedsnow]

Looks like we may pull 90 plus here on Friday.. Hopefully it's the last

[dryslot]

30's tonight for some low lying valleys? SLK?

[dendrite]

Scary cold in the extended

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s zero model evidence of that. Like none 

AI has been rock solid.  Are you still using physics-based models?

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Really?   By August 1st?  Is this your first summer outside of Alaska?

It's over, Johnny.

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the third sentence is heavily influencing the first

lol, yes you are correct!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Looks fairly dry moving forward.  
This part of the State could use some rain for sure.

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

A wild card too late next week and into the first week of August is the western Atlantic ridge. There is a possibility the degree of troughing across the East is overdone as well, especially if there is a greater connection of the southern ridge and WAR. Now, we'll probably see some sort of trough because there will be a weakness in the ridge and there will be shortwaves/developing FROPAs. But IMO, we are far more likely to see above average and well above at times versus anything else (again, outside for a day or two behind a FROPA). 

There's blocking at higher latitudes over the western Aleutian arch and also up over the western Beaufort Sea, but that's far away. It is unclear in summer wave scaling if that would be much of an exertion on the circulation mode over eastern N/A's mid latitudes ...

Meanwhile, the NAO is rising positive - though telecon correlation in summer gets rather vague.  Right now the EPO and PNA are flatlining neutral, making any signal utterly not there either way. I sense these operational runs - which are exhibiting typical summer bad continuity out in time - are about as useful as shitty toilet paper.  Just go back two runs in the GFS and it's different hemisphere.

As we've noted many times in the past ... these deep vortices/SPV's in the late mid ranges tend to de-amplify in time.  True in winter or summer.

I don't know, it seems to me we've been down this end summer in the middle of summer routine before, and routinely these haven't occurred.  The onus is on one of those to actually verify.  

[kdxken]

24 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

It's over, Johnny.

I'm seeing if it's safe to go outside?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's blocking at higher latitudes over the western Aleutian arch and also up over the western Beaufort Sea, but that's far away. It is unclear in summer wave scaling if that would be much of an exertion on the circulation mode over eastern N/A's mid latitudes ...

Meanwhile, the NAO is rising positive - though telecon correlation in summer gets rather vague.  Right now the EPO and PNA are flatlining neutral, making any signal utterly not there either way. I sense these operational runs - which are exhibiting typical summer bad continuity out in time - are about as useful as shitty toilet paper.  Just go back two runs in the GFS and it's different hemisphere.

As we've noted many times in the past ... these deep vortices/SPV's in the late mid ranges tend to de-amplify in time.  True in winter or summer.

I don't know, it seems to me we've been down this end summer in the middle of summer routine before, and routinely these haven't occurred.  The onus is on one of those to actually verify.  

I would expect that this deep into summer the EPO and especially the PNA would have minimal, if any, influence on the pattern at all. the other thing I think to keep in mind too (and this fits in with your bolded) is with this pattern upcoming, it is likely to be quite convectively active across the International border with potential for numerous MCSs and squall lines. Given we're downstream of this, the impacts (or how the models think downstream will behave) are going to be more pronounced over our region. 

I mean at some point we are going to start to see noticeable changes occur as we continue approaching the equinox, but we are a good 4 weeks or so before we start to see these changes take place. 

[powderfreak]

Bottle it up.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Bottle it up.

Awesome!

[HoarfrostHubb]

47 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Looks like we may pull 90 plus here on Friday.. Hopefully it's the last

I didn’t think I would have any more 90s this month. But Friday could definitely do it. 

[Torch Tiger]

50 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Scary cold in the extended

that pesky polar blocking really setting up on that run