July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[Wannabehippie]

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

does not feel as bad compared to last few days dewpoint has come down in to the mid 60's

I don't think it will last long with higher dew points rolling in over the next few days. Getting in to the dog days of summer, hazy, hot, humid.

[Sundog]

15 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

ConEd made $1,820 million in profit in 2024. That is $1.82 billion. And they want to raise prices, and transmission costs. Which means even if you choose a 3rd party provider for gas and electric, you still will pay more due to the higher transmission fees. They should get zilch, zip, nada for gas and electric increases.  In fact their prices should be rolled back a good 5%.

 

It's not just ConEd's fault. They are taking advantage of our infinitely stupid government. 

"Let's shut down 20% of NYC's electricity supply that is already clean and immune to global price shocks with nothing in place to replace it!"

That's just one example. 

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Heard more about the Con Ed situation, they are going to raise both gas and electric prices 15% and not only that, they are also going to increase transmission costs so even if you use less power you will still pay more.  And it's not an insignificant amount, WABC7 said it could amount to a 200 dollar higher bill PER MONTH.

 

Exactly.  The problem is that utilities are protected, because we need water and electricity to meet our basic needs.  These utilities are "regulated", in other words protected, to insure there will always be enough supply for our demand.  Therefore, capitalism cannot be counted on to keep costs down, since they are exempt from competition.  So, a power company has to pay for their overhead, and are guaranteed to make a profit.  Every time we buy a more energy efficient refrigerator, HVAC, washer and dryer and utilize led lights, the rates must increase to offset losses in revenue.  Sort of counter intuitive.  Doesn't matter if the energy sources are renewable or not. The only way to beat the system is to totally go off the grid, which I don't think is possible yet, unless you own a ranch with enough space to supply enough wind, solar and geothermal power and store it?

[Wannabehippie]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

It's not just ConEd's fault. They are taking advantage of our infinitely stupid government. 

"Let's shut down 20% of NYC's electricity supply that is already clean and immune to global price shocks with nothing in place to replace it!"

That's just one example. 

Note I am a supporter of nuclear energy. 
Indian Point Nuclear Power plant was commissioned between 1962, and 1976. The oldest of the three was decommissioned in 1976 due to poor design and operational issues. The other two licenses were set to expire in 2013, 2015. Those two had a history of issues dating back from 2000. Any shot at getting their licenses extended was blown to hell when the operator, Entergy, refused to build a new closed-cycle cooling towers system at the cost of $1 bil. That was key due to environmental impacts on the Hudson River from the water taken, and returned to it. 
The licenses for nuclear power plants last 40 years. 

 

12 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Exactly.  The problem is that utilities are protected, because we need water and electricity to meet our basic needs.  These utilities are "regulated", in other words protected, to insure there will always be enough supply for our demand.  Therefore, capitalism cannot be counted on to keep costs down, since they are exempt from competition.  So, a power company has to pay for their overhead, and are guaranteed to make a profit.  Every time we buy a more energy efficient refrigerator, HVAC, washer and dryer and utilize led lights, the rates must increase to offset losses in revenue.  Sort of counter intuitive.  Doesn't matter if the energy sources are renewable or not. The only way to beat the system is to totally go off the grid, which I don't think is possible yet, unless you own a ranch with enough space to supply enough wind, solar and geothermal power and store it?

In NYC, LI, and at least in my area of NJ, you can buy your power from 3rd party providers. Example buy your power from Superelectric company rather than ConEd. Coned still provides the transmission of the power. This is because you cannot have a million different transmission lines from each power company. Same goes for gas service.  
ConEd in particular has had ever increasing profits the last few years. A lot of that money is given back to shareholders with dividends. Coned pays $3.40 a share, and that rate has consistently gone up year over year. 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

ugh I was going to do some landscaping work in my yard tomorrow lol.

when you said sea breeze minimal I thought you meant it was going to be hot lol

From what I looked at, it's going to rain both Thursday and Friday and cloudy Saturday, so no sunshine after today until Sunday?

 

When the sea breeze is minimal and we have a another focusing mechanism we can get heavy rain right to the beaches. Weekend looks like a perfect summer weekend.

[Wannabehippie]

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

When the sea breeze is minimal and we have a another focusing mechanism we can get heavy rain right to the beaches. Weekend looks like a perfect summer weekend.

Big thing I miss about living on Long Island, or even in Astoria, ease of access to the south shore beaches, in particular Jones Beach Field 6.

 

[Dark Star]

10 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Note I am a supporter of nuclear energy. 
Indian Point Nuclear Power plant was commissioned between 1962, and 1976. The oldest of the three was decommissioned in 1976 due to poor design and operational issues. The other two licenses were set to expire in 2013, 2015. Those two had a history of issues dating back from 2000. Any shot at getting their licenses extended was blown to hell when the operator, Entergy, refused to build a new closed-cycle cooling towers system at the cost of $1 bil. That was key due to environmental impacts on the Hudson River from the water taken, and returned to it. 
The licenses for nuclear power plants last 40 years. 

 

In NYC, LI, and at least in my area of NJ, you can buy your power from 3rd party providers. Example buy your power from Superelectric company rather than ConEd. Coned still provides the transmission of the power. This is because you cannot have a million different transmission lines from each power company. Same goes for gas service.  
ConEd in particular has had ever increasing profits the last few years. A lot of that money is given back to shareholders with dividends. Coned pays $3.40 a share, and that rate has consistently gone up year over year. 

 

I've been told, first hand, that the bulk of the increase is for the transmission.  Yes, we can buy our electricity from a 3rd party provider, which in theory does create competition, but doesn't solve the ever growing transmission costs.  I have a feeling we are paying for repairs done in other parts of the grid and or country during crisis time?

[Wannabehippie]

6 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I've been told, first hand, that the bulk of the increase is for the transmission.  Yes, we can buy our electricity from a 3rd party provider, which in theory does create competition, but doesn't solve the ever growing transmission costs.  I have a feeling we are paying for repairs done in other parts of the grid and or country during crisis time?

But the transmission costs are a separate fee from the electric/gas costs. 

[Stormlover74]

Flash flooding in philly and delaware

[Dark Star]

7 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

But the transmission costs are a separate fee from the electric/gas costs. 

Yes.  But, they are fixed costs and are increasing rapidly.  A Board reviews their requests to raise rates, and apparently rubber stamps the increases?

[dmillz25]

93 for the high here

[ag3]

High of 90.0 here today.

[steve392]

Storms falling apart for nenj.... Again.  I really wish I could understand what happens in the atmosphere that this happens as it approaches Bergen County.  

[steve392]

Even with all this rain and sticky air feeling, how is my humidity this low? 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Storms falling apart for nenj.... Again.  I really wish I could understand what happens in the atmosphere that this happens as it approaches Bergen County.  

What storms? They're all south of us

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

EWR: 97
TEB: 94
LGA: 93
BLM: 91
New Brnsck: 91
PHL: 91
NYC: 90
ACY: 89
TTN: 89
JFK: 88 * no intra hour 
ISP: 88

 

 

[winterwx21]

Storms missing well to the south, but at least it has been a decent batch of steady light to moderate rain. 0.10" here so far and we'll be adding a little more to that. Just enough to water things out there. 

[Snowlover11]

Northern partnof the rain shield is dissipating, but man that’s some nasty rain about to smack AC.

[David-LI]

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Storms missing well to the south, but at least it has been a decent batch of steady light to moderate rain. 0.10" here so far and we'll be adding a little more to that. Just enough to water things out there. 

We might see some storms approach the area later tonight

[nycwinter]

complete bust with the rain in the city..

[doncat]

93/72 temp split for Wednesday...with all the potential last three days, have picked up just 0.21" rain .

[nycwinter]

amazing how the nws  and local tv meteorologists completely botched the forecast for nyc..

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, doncat said:

93/72 temp split for Wednesday...with all the potential last three days, have picked up just 0.21" rain .

Meanwhile just to our south massive flooding. If it were an ocean stabilization issue we wouldn’t see eastern New England blowing away our rainfall totals. Something about the geography of the NY bight destroys convection. 

[jm1220]

56 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Meanwhile just to our south massive flooding. If it were an ocean stabilization issue we wouldn’t see eastern New England blowing away our rainfall totals. Something about the geography of the NY bight destroys convection. 

Split screwed. 

[winterwarlock]

.32 in my area unimpressive 

[steve392]

69 degree's.  Rains came in around 9pm and were steady throughout the night.  Decent soaking rains.  

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Omg I passed out that summer from the humidity.  There were two very hot days in May and then one on the last day of August the only times it reached 90.

But the day I passed out was not hot, but very humid.  My nightmare kind of a day.  Overcast all day with a temperature of 81 degrees and a relative humidity of 100% (81 DP).  Do you remember this day Chris, I think it was in July? I was commuting back from college and as soon as I got home I got very lightheaded couldn't hear a sound saw all white in front of my eyes and everything around me was in slow motion.  Luckily I was almost home and was able to stumble inside and pass out on my floor.

 

I remember all the tropical systems that summer and the great waves. It was the last time we had a record breaking snowy winter with under 10 days reaching 90° at the warmest spots like EWR.

2004 was also impressive with that cool summer following the great snows and the record cold in January. 2009 was the last time with under 15 days reaching 90° and an above average snowy season and near 0° in January.

The there was the amazing Arctic outbreak in January 1985 and that cool summer. Also 1982 with the cool summer following the greatest April blizzard in over 100 years. We can add 1956 to the list for the great snowstorms in March.

If you notice we used to get these very cool summers right around the ones which were the warmest in those eras,  Such as 1956 after the 1955 summer. And 1967 following the summer of 1966. Then the 1982 summer right before the 1983 heat. Plus 1996 after the 1993 to 1995 summers with the heat index near 130°.

We also had the cooler 2004 summer between the warmth in 2002 and 2005. Then our warmest summer on record in 2010 after the cool 2009 summer.

So all we get these days is the summer heat like 2022 with nearly 50 days reaching 90  and an average summer like in 2023 with closer to 30 days.  But not another cool one like in 2009. So we lost a whole category of cool summers since the big step up in summer temperatures in 2010.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Lowest Number of 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1967	7	0
2	1996	9	0
3	1985	11	0
4	1982	12	0
-	1975	12	0
-	1946	12	0
5	2004	13	0
6	2009	14	0
-	1962	14	0
-	1956	14	0
-	1935	14	0

[psv88]

0.25 overnight, 0.75 the last two days 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I remember all the tropical systems that summer and the great waves. It was the last time we had a record breaking snowy winter with under 10 days reaching 90° at the warmest spots like EWR.

2004 was also impressive with that cool summer following the great snows and the record cold in January. 2009 was the last time with under 15 days reaching 90° and an above average snowy season and near 0° in January.

The there was the amazing Arctic outbreak in January 1985 and that cool summer. Also 1982 with the cool summer following the greatest April blizzard in over 100 years. We can add 1956 to the list for the great snowstorms in March.

If you notice we used to get these very cool summers right around the ones which were the warmest in those eras,  Such as 1956 after the 1955 summer. And 1967 following the summer of 1966. Then the 1982 summer right before the 1983 heat. Plus 1996 after the 1993 to 1995 summers with the heat index near 130°.

We also had the cooler 2004 summer between the warmth in 2002 and 2005. Then our warmest summer on record in 2010 after the cool 2009 summer.

So all we get these days is the summer heat like 2022 with nearly 50 days reaching 90  and an average summer like in 2023 with closer to 30 days.  But not another cool one like in 2009. So we lost a whole category of cool summers since the big step up in summer temperatures in 2010.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Lowest Number of 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1967	7	0
2	1996	9	0
3	1985	11	0
4	1982	12	0
-	1975	12	0
-	1946	12	0
5	2004	13	0
6	2009	14	0
-	1962	14	0
-	1956	14	0
-	1935	14	0

I went to Lake Placid during the first week of August 2004. My first day there was a regular weather day, I went in the pool and thebhigh was around 80 degrees. 

Then the hammer dropped and the following days lows were in the 40s and even one day in the 30s(!) with highs in the low 60s and with one day staying in the 50s! And it was a crisp cool 50s, not because of rain or something. Walking around town and smelling the wood burning and browsing the Christmas store it truly felt like late November. 

[jm1220]

Huge PWAT/remnants of Chantal etc pattern-big meh for 95% of us and split screwed. But watch a random warm frontal boundary next month dump 12” for a whole swath of the area.