July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[forkyfork]

58 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I'm in Garwood NJ (central Union County), and usually within 1 or 2 degrees of Newark Airport temperatures.  I believe Forky says it is just as hot (or hotter?) several miles to the west of Newark Airport?

ewr can get sea breezes downtown newark doesn't

[Brian5671]

85 partly sunny here

[SACRUS]

 

88/ 70

[SACRUS]

 

[winterwarlock]

88 with heat index of 97

[donsutherland1]

With respect to summer highs (lowest at Central Park vs. JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark) and Newark (highest at Newark vs. Central Park, JFK, and LaGuardia), there has been a massive change at Central Park and a remarkably stable relationship at Newark. The dramatic change in relationship relative to the surrounding area suggests that Central Park has the much larger issue than Newark. This does not mean that Newark doesn't run slightly hot, but changes there have not altered its relationship to the overall region. 

Central Park:

Newark:

Temperature averages are adjusted through various quality control mechanisms, so the long-term climate record filters out such problems. The problems exist only when it comes to daily temperatures or extreme temperatures, which are taken from raw unadjusted values. Based on the pre-2000 regression equation, the most recent heatwave would have had a peak temperature of 102° at Central Park setting a new June mark. The actual figure of 99° will wind up being the month's extreme temperature in the climate record. The June monthly mean temperature will be subject to modest adjustment at some point for the long-term climate record.

My guess is that there is a conscious choice to maintain things as they are, even as the raw numbers (particularly during full foliage season) have noted issues. Maintaining a long climate record is worth the trade-off among the key stakeholders, especially as the long-term numbers can be fixed to account for biases, etc.

[Snowlover11]

87F feeling like 89.

[Stormlover74]

Just another 95 degree day at ewr

[SACRUS]

 

90 / 68 here

[SACRUS]

EWR at 95

[Intensewind002]

84/76 yet another day with dewpoints in the 75-80 degree range 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

'm talking about real stations, not personal ones.  But, you even just pointed out, Newark at 100 was still the hottest. 

Newark was tied with Corona for the highest temperature yesterday at 100°. Back on 6-24 Newark was only 3rd warmest. But now that NY State and Con Edison installed the Micronet, we can get an accurate assessment of what kind of heat the urban dwellers have to deal with. Since our airports are all right on the water and get cooling sea breezes. People living in these interior urban centers away from the water experience higher temperatures. 

7-8-25 highest temperatures across the region 

Corona, Queens…..100°

Newark, NJ…………100°

6-24-25 highest temperatures across the region

Ozone Park South, Queens….105°

Corona, Queens ………………..104°

Harrison, NJ………………………103°

Newark, NJ……………………….103°

JFK…………………………………..102°

LGA………………………………….101°

ISP…………………………….……..101°

 

 

 

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

With respect to summer highs (lowest at Central Park vs. JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark) and Newark (highest at Newark vs. Central Park, JFK, and LaGuardia), there has been a massive change at Central Park and a remarkably stable relationship at Newark. The dramatic change in relationship relative to the surrounding area suggests that Central Park has the much larger issue than Newark. This does not mean that Newark doesn't run slightly hot, but changes there have not altered its relationship to the overall region. 

Central Park:

Newark:

Temperature averages are adjusted through various quality control mechanisms, so the long-term climate record filters out such problems. The problems exist only when it comes to daily temperatures or extreme temperatures, which are taken from raw unadjusted values. Based on the pre-2000 regression equation, the most recent heatwave would have had a peak temperature of 102° at Central Park setting a new June mark. The actual figure of 99° will wind up being the month's extreme temperature in the climate record. The June monthly mean temperature will be subject to modest adjustment at some point for the long-term climate record.

My guess is that there is a conscious choice to maintain things as they are, even as the raw numbers (particularly during full foliage season) have noted issues. Maintaining a long climate record is worth the trade-off among the key stakeholders, especially as the long-term numbers can be fixed to account for biases, etc.

My assumption is that Newark, the city, is just far enough inland not usually affected by cooling from the nearby Atlantic Ocean/bays/rivers.  As Forky pointed out, Newark, the city, can be hotter than the airport (EWR the official monitoring station).  Even so, EWR seldom is seen to receive a cooling effect.  JFK and LGA are right on the water.  So, to the best of my knowledge, EWR temperatures are representative of that area.  While the monitoring station is above a "grassy" area, we know Newark Airport to be one big paved over parking lot.  The nearby Jersey suburbs are normally close to the airports temperatures, but maybe a degree or two cooler.  Teterboro airport  a few miles to the north, is normally a degree or two cooler than EWR, but Linden Airport is normally within 1 degree of EWR.  So, it doesn't surprise me that Newark Airport is the hotspot of the 20 mile radius (or so) around NYC.  I believe there are some areas of southern Jersey, Toms River, Berkeley Township and parts of the Jersey Pine Barrens, that can be even hotter, but they are not part of this region's discussion.

[MorristownWx]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m trying to move on. But it annoys the crap out of me when tv Mets report the high temp for the region using the park. 

I feel like you should maybe worry about bigger things lol..

[jm1220]

Another swampy afternoon. 89/74

[Dan76]

Plenty of fires in Canada   https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-ca_reg_cen-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[LoboLeader1]

90 here.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Most of the models had mid to upper 90s. Plus you can’t use convective outlooks as an IMBY forecast. It’s a general forecast for the outlook region. Some areas got very little rain and others had flooding. 

a better forecast would have been mostly sunny with a chance of late afternoon showers and tstorms. All our locals had a high near 90 which was exceeded by 5+ degrees (it was 95 here.) This is a very typical summer pattern for us and happens almost every summer.

I don't even like the word *washout* we don't have washouts here in the summer unless a tropical system is coming up the coast.  The FCC needs to ban that term and no weather forecaster should be allowed to use it. For me, if a day is cloudy it's already ruined, so we should judge whether a day is good or bad with a skycover forecast and both Monday and Tuesday were mostly sunny until late in the day.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

About the same here. Didn’t even make it through the trees. Grass is browning. The south shore summer flash drought is a real thing. People who do not live here just do not get it. It’s a micro climate seasonal desert. 

It's better not to have a lawn.

I live on the south shore specifically to have a dry and hot summer, so this is perfect for me.  There are multiple benefits to not getting rain in the summer.

Far fewer mosquitoes

Far fewer weeds

Far fewer destructive thunderstorms and flash flooding

I dont want to live in a tropical rain forest and don't want more than one - two inches of rain per month from June through August.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly. Writing was on the wall. Other then the areas north of the sea breeze front that saw some heavier rain this is going to be a pretty big fail for the rest of us. May even go completely dry in spots. 

It was enough rain, don't want the weeds to overgrow or the bugs to overpopulate

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, Dark Star said:

PSEG raised the rates about 30%, but they made a deal with the state to "even out" the cost so there are no obvious peaks, hoping people don't notice as much.  What I don't understand is that PSEG doesn't even generate the electricity anymore, they are just in charge of transmission.  They sold the generation off to Parkway Generation about 2 years ago.  

Heard more about the Con Ed situation, they are going to raise both gas and electric prices 15% and not only that, they are also going to increase transmission costs so even if you use less power you will still pay more.  And it's not an insignificant amount, WABC7 said it could amount to a 200 dollar higher bill PER MONTH.

 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

a better forecast would have been mostly sunny with a chance of late afternoon showers and tstorms. All our locals had a high near 90 which was exceeded by 5+ degrees (it was 95 here.) This is a very typical summer pattern for us and happens almost every summer.

I don't even like the word *washout* we don't have washouts here in the summer unless a tropical system is coming up the coast.  The FCC needs to ban that term and no weather forecaster should be allowed to use it. For me, if a day is cloudy it's already ruined, so we should judge whether a day is good or bad with a skycover forecast and both Monday and Tuesday were mostly sunny until late in the day.

 

It’s sounds like you would really enjoy living is a desert environment. If you can deal with the heat, it’s actually a very beautiful ecosystem. I tend to enjoy cooler climates and was fine with all the cooler summers that I used to get growing up back in Long Beach. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

I think you'll find Central Park deviates more from the mean compared to Newark. 

Yesterday I was 98 degrees and I am all single family homes with trees and grass. 

LGA was also 98. Newark was 100. 

Central Park though was only 93! Come on bro 

JFK was too cool too, it was 95 here.  But that might be a function of their sensor being located right on the Bay lol.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s sounds like you would really enjoy living is a desert environment. If you can deal with the heat, it’s actually a very beautiful ecosystem. I tend to enjoy cooler climates and was fine with all the cooler summers that I used to get growing up back in Long Beach. 
 

 

I like snow in the winter but a dry summer.  There are multiple benefits to a dry summer, including less need to do weeding and not having to deal with mosquitoes and other bugs and of course mold allergies.  I noticed most of the weeds I didn't get to have shriveled and dried up this month.  

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m trying to move on. But it annoys the crap out of me when tv Mets report the high temp for the region using the park. 

Oh it's even worse than that, they use Central Park temperatures to pat themselves on their verification scores.  It happened on WABC when Central Park hit 99 but not 100, they said *see we told you New York City would not hit triple digits*  They weren't able to explain why all the airports did though....

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

put a station here and it would be warmer than ewr

Wasn't there one near Linden (KLDJ) that always runs hotter than KEWR?

 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasn't there one near Linden (KLDJ) that always runs hotter than KEWR?

 

No Linden is 91 right now while ewr is 96

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I think that growing up in Oceanside the immediate south shore summer dryness badly skewed my perception of summer weather in the northeast. My memories are of pleasant, mostly sunny days where you just went and did stuff outside all the time. My time was almost entirely spent south of Merrick Rd and mostly more than a mile S of that and daily watering was definitely a thing, you could easily tell who didn't (like me ) 

Ha! My garden is having a pretty good mushroom year too. It's a sign of healthy soil so I'm good with it. Thankfully our dog isn't a "taster" and pretty much stays away from them and the slime molds.

Yes this is the perfect weather, I really don't know anyone who actually wants a rainy summer unless they make money off of growing vegetables.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:

Highs: 

EWR: 104 (1993)
NYC: 106 (1936)
LGA: 98 (1993)
JFK: 101 (1993)
New Brnswck: 105 (1936)

Lows: 

EWR: 56 (1963)
NYC: 54 (1963)
NYC: 57 (1963)
JFK: 55 (1963)
New Brnswck: 46 (1923)

Historical:

1860 - A hot blast of air in the middle of a sweltering summer pushed the mercury up to 115 degrees at Fort Scott and Lawrence, KS. (David Ludlum)

1876: The minimum temperature of 80° or above on the 9th and 10th were the warmest two consecutive nights ever in Washington, DC.(Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1882 - Ice formed on the streets of Cheyenne, WY, during a rare summer freeze. (David Ludlum)

1936 - The temperature hit an all-time record high of 106 degrees at the Central Park Observatory in New York City, a record which lasted until LaGuardia Airport hit 107 degrees on July 3rd in 1966. (The Weather Channel)

1938: A deadly, estimated F4 tornado moved east-southeast across the eastern edge of Andover, SD to north of Bristol, SD. 17 buildings were destroyed at Andover, and at least one home was completely swept away. An elderly person was killed at the western edge of Andover and a couple died in a home at the southern edge of town. About two hours later, another estimated F4 tornado moved east-northeast from two miles northeast of White, South Dakota in Brookings County to Hendricks, MN. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1968 - Columbus, MS received 15.68 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

 

1979: Hurricane Bob was born in the Gulf of Mexico, becoming the first Atlantic Hurricane to be given a male name.

1982: Wind shear caused the crash of Pam Am flight 759 after takeoff from New Orleans International Airport in Louisiana. 145 people on the plane and 8 people on the ground were killed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Michigan. A tornado near Munising, MI, destroyed part of a commercial dog kennel, and one of the missing dogs was later found unharmed in a tree top half a mile away. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Alpena, MI, and Buffalo, NY, suffered through their sixth straight day of record heat. The percentage of total area in the country in the grips of severe to extreme drought reached 43 percent, the fourth highest total of record. The record of 61 percent occurred during the summer of 1934. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms produced very heavy rain in southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Up to 5.6 inches of rain was reported in Berrien County, MI. Sioux Falls SD reported a record high of 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: Severe thunderstorms produced a swath of very large and damaging hail and damaging winds. Golf ball-size hail and 60 mph winds were reported on the west side of Decatur, IL with numerous roofs and automobiles damaged by the hail. Hail grew to nearly the size of baseballs by the time the storms reached the Charleston/Mattoon areas. Total damage from the storms was estimated around $5 million dollars.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: One of the strongest and most long-lived wind events of recorded history in the Midwest pounded portions of Nebraska and Iowa. The wind event, called a Derecho, actually started near Goodland, KS and raced across southern Nebraska and into Iowa traveling at 60 mph. In the Omaha metro area, tree and property damage was heavy as 70 to 100 mph winds caused $7 million dollars in damage. Also in Nebraska, power line damage alone totaled $30 million dollars and total property damage was estimated near $100 million dollars. This wind storm even spawned a tornado in the city of Lincoln, NE causing damage to the north end of town. As the derecho moved into southwest Iowa, 13 high-tension power line poles were downed on the east side of Council Bluffs. Winds continued in the 85 mph range as far as east as Fremont County, Iowa before finally subsiding in the central part of the Hawkeye State. 11 inches of rain fell overnight in Scranton, IA. Much of the downtown of Davenport, IA was under water as the Great Flood of 1993 raged on.

1993" record daily high temperatures were set at: Newark, NJ: 104°, NYC-Kennedy Airport, NY: 101°, Greensboro, NC: 101°, Atlantic City, NY: 100°, Wallops Island, VA: 100°, Dulles Airport, VA: 99°, NYC-LaGuardia, NY: 98°, Concord, NH: 95° and Islip, NY: 93°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: A new July maximum temperature record was set as Anchorage, AK hit 84°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

Long Live 1993 I remember this day and the following day (Friday and Saturday) like it was yesterday!

Highs: 

EWR: 104 (1993)
NYC: 106 (1936)
LGA: 98 (1993)
JFK: 101 (1993)
New Brnswck: 105 (1936)

I see LGA underreported temperatures back then-- its good to see JFK beat them and so did NYC at 101 but not listed because the historic 1936 heatwave peaked on the same day!!

1993" record daily high temperatures were set at: Newark, NJ: 104°, NYC-Kennedy Airport, NY: 101°, Greensboro, NC: 101°, Atlantic City, NY: 100°, Wallops Island, VA: 100°, Dulles Airport, VA: 99°, NYC-LaGuardia, NY: 98°, Concord, NH: 95° and Islip, NY: 93°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No Linden is 91 right now while ewr is 96

Harrison and Newark are both in the westerly downslope zone today.

Harrison

NJ

2025-07-09 15:16

APRSWXNET-CWOP

94