July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Thankfully the Rockaways to Long Beach did get maybe a half inch from the storms that grazed the barrier islands, but seen it happen many times. Can be boring as hell for months behind the seabreeze in the marine layer. 

half an inch is all I want or need, it's a lot better than highly destructive severe weather and flooding which causes so much damage and kills people.

I'm not sure if there was much of a seabreeze, it sat in the mid 90s most of the afternoon lol.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Harrison and Newark are both in the westerly downslope zone today.

Harrison

NJ

2025-07-09 15:16

APRSWXNET-CWOP

94

 

why arent we? this area does well on a westerly wind

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No Linden is 91 right now while ewr is 96

They must have run hot a few years ago when they were always the hottest in the local area, maybe they fixed that issue.

[nycwinter]

does not feel as bad compared to last few days dewpoint has come down in to the mid 60's

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes this is the perfect weather, I really don't know anyone who actually wants a rainy summer unless they make money off of growing vegetables.

 

The summer of 1996 was actually one of my favorites. All the cooler rainy days kept the beaches quiet. Since even a cool summer is plenty warm for the beach and swimming. Plus it came after the best winter I ever experienced. Gone are the days when nearly the whole area gets under 10 days a year reaching 90°. 
 

Data for January 1, 1996 through December 31, 1996 days reaching 90°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	13
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	11
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	10
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	9
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	8
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	8
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	6
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	5
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	5
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	5
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	5
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	5
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	4
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	4
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	4
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	4
NY	OCEANSIDE	COOP	4
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	4
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	4
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	4
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	3
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	3
NJ	WAYNE	COOP	3
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	3
NY	WEST NYACK	COOP	3
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	3
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	2
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	2
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	2
CT	DANBURY	COOP	2
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	2
NY	SEA CLIFF	COOP	2
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	2
CT	COCKAPONSET RANGER STA	COOP	2
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	2
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	2
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	2
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	1
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	1
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	1

[SACRUS]

S/W areas looking like prime target / focus

 

[psv88]

Was 89 earlier, down to 84 as some light showers moved through. 

[Sundog]

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No Linden is 91 right now while ewr is 96

96 sounds like a lot until you see Ambient weather stations at 95 degrees on Staten Island and several others at 95 or 96 all around the airport, even in much quieter neighborhoods. 

[Brian5671]

NAMS coming in wet for some areas tomorrow-likely a continuation of what we've seen the haves  and have nots

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

NAMS coming in wet for some areas tomorrow-likely a continuation of what we've seen the haves  and have nots

Sea breeze looks minimal tomorrow. Should allow the coast to rain. Sorry liberty, weeds, mosquitoes and allergies are coming. 

[dmillz25]

Late high of 90 at the Park

[donsutherland1]

Today was another very warm day. Highs included:

Bridgeport: 88°
Islip: 88°
New York City-Central Park: 90°
New York City-JFK Airport: 88°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 92°
Newark: 97°

Warm weather will continue through the weekend with temperatures reaching mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. Showers and thundershowers are possible through tomorrow.

No widespread and sustained excessive heat appears likely through mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +2.65 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.289 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.8° (1.3° above normal). 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The summer of 1996 was actually one of my favorites. All the cooler rainy days kept the beaches quiet. Since even a cool summer is plenty warm for the beach and swimming. Plus it came after the best winter I ever experienced. Gone are the days when nearly the whole area gets under 10 days a year reaching 90°. 
 

Data for January 1, 1996 through December 31, 1996 days reaching 90°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	13
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	11
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	10
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	9
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	8
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	8
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	6
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	5
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	5
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	5
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	5
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	5
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	4
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	4
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	4
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	4
NY	OCEANSIDE	COOP	4
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	4
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	4
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	4
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	3
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	3
NJ	WAYNE	COOP	3
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	3
NY	WEST NYACK	COOP	3
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	3
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	2
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	2
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	2
CT	DANBURY	COOP	2
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	2
NY	SEA CLIFF	COOP	2
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	2
CT	COCKAPONSET RANGER STA	COOP	2
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	2
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	2
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	2
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	1
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	1
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	1

Omg I passed out that summer from the humidity.  There were two very hot days in May and then one on the last day of August the only times it reached 90.

But the day I passed out was not hot, but very humid.  My nightmare kind of a day.  Overcast all day with a temperature of 81 degrees and a relative humidity of 100% (81 DP).  Do you remember this day Chris, I think it was in July? I was commuting back from college and as soon as I got home I got very lightheaded couldn't hear a sound saw all white in front of my eyes and everything around me was in slow motion.  Luckily I was almost home and was able to stumble inside and pass out on my floor.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was another very warm day. Highs included:

Bridgeport: 88°
Islip: 88°
New York City-Central Park: 90°
New York City-JFK Airport: 88°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 92°
Newark: 97°

Warm weather will continue through the weekend with temperatures reaching mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. Showers and thundershowers are possible through tomorrow.

No widespread and sustained excessive heat appears likely through mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +2.65 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.289 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.8° (1.3° above normal). 

 

Got to 89 here, just missed 90.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Late high of 90 at the Park

yep hit 89 here after 4 PM that was unexpected lol

Usually on a seabreeze day we peak before 2 PM

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Sea breeze looks minimal tomorrow. Should allow the coast to rain. Sorry liberty, weeds, mosquitoes and allergies are coming. 

ugh I was going to do some landscaping work in my yard tomorrow lol.

when you said sea breeze minimal I thought you meant it was going to be hot lol

From what I looked at, it's going to rain both Thursday and Friday and cloudy Saturday, so no sunshine after today until Sunday?

 

[qg_omega]

DC is hit everyday

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

96 sounds like a lot until you see Ambient weather stations at 95 degrees on Staten Island and several others at 95 or 96 all around the airport, even in much quieter neighborhoods. 

I do believe Newark is representative of its area but not for our area as a whole.  You just have to look at the summer of 1993 to see that.  Although Newark's hottest summers match my own area's they are always a few degrees hotter.  In 1993, Newark had 9 100+ days while NYC had 3 (in a row) and JFK had 2 (in a row.)  This was before the siting issues.  You can even go back to 1949 when Newark had 8 100+ days while NYC had 5 99+ days.  Newark has almost always been a few degrees hotter than Central Park, even before the siting issues.  As a matter of fact, going by number of 90 degree days, Newark closely matches Philadelphia, so I'd say their summer climate is more like Philadelphia than it is New York City-- which makes sense, since it is inland.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

96 sounds like a lot until you see Ambient weather stations at 95 degrees on Staten Island and several others at 95 or 96 all around the airport, even in much quieter neighborhoods. 

Final high of 97 at EWR.

[SACRUS]

 

 

Storms poudning the Blt/DC/DE areas.  Some storms pushing now into NJ

 

[SACRUS]

 

[winterwarlock]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

ugh I was going to do some landscaping work in my yard tomorrow lol.

when you said sea breeze minimal I thought you meant it was going to be hot lol

From what I looked at, it's going to rain both Thursday and Friday and cloudy Saturday, so no sunshine after today until Sunday?

 

I think we sun both Friday and Saturday and good deal of sun Sunday

[Wannabehippie]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Heard more about the Con Ed situation, they are going to raise both gas and electric prices 15% and not only that, they are also going to increase transmission costs so even if you use less power you will still pay more.  And it's not an insignificant amount, WABC7 said it could amount to a 200 dollar higher bill PER MONTH.

 

ConEd made $1,820 million in profit in 2024. That is $1.82 billion. And they want to raise prices, and transmission costs. Which means even if you choose a 3rd party provider for gas and electric, you still will pay more due to the higher transmission fees. They should get zilch, zip, nada for gas and electric increases.  In fact their prices should be rolled back a good 5%.

 

[Wannabehippie]

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

does not feel as bad compared to last few days dewpoint has come down in to the mid 60's

I don't think it will last long with higher dew points rolling in over the next few days. Getting in to the dog days of summer, hazy, hot, humid.

[Sundog]

15 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

ConEd made $1,820 million in profit in 2024. That is $1.82 billion. And they want to raise prices, and transmission costs. Which means even if you choose a 3rd party provider for gas and electric, you still will pay more due to the higher transmission fees. They should get zilch, zip, nada for gas and electric increases.  In fact their prices should be rolled back a good 5%.

 

It's not just ConEd's fault. They are taking advantage of our infinitely stupid government. 

"Let's shut down 20% of NYC's electricity supply that is already clean and immune to global price shocks with nothing in place to replace it!"

That's just one example. 

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Heard more about the Con Ed situation, they are going to raise both gas and electric prices 15% and not only that, they are also going to increase transmission costs so even if you use less power you will still pay more.  And it's not an insignificant amount, WABC7 said it could amount to a 200 dollar higher bill PER MONTH.

 

Exactly.  The problem is that utilities are protected, because we need water and electricity to meet our basic needs.  These utilities are "regulated", in other words protected, to insure there will always be enough supply for our demand.  Therefore, capitalism cannot be counted on to keep costs down, since they are exempt from competition.  So, a power company has to pay for their overhead, and are guaranteed to make a profit.  Every time we buy a more energy efficient refrigerator, HVAC, washer and dryer and utilize led lights, the rates must increase to offset losses in revenue.  Sort of counter intuitive.  Doesn't matter if the energy sources are renewable or not. The only way to beat the system is to totally go off the grid, which I don't think is possible yet, unless you own a ranch with enough space to supply enough wind, solar and geothermal power and store it?

[Wannabehippie]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

It's not just ConEd's fault. They are taking advantage of our infinitely stupid government. 

"Let's shut down 20% of NYC's electricity supply that is already clean and immune to global price shocks with nothing in place to replace it!"

That's just one example. 

Note I am a supporter of nuclear energy. 
Indian Point Nuclear Power plant was commissioned between 1962, and 1976. The oldest of the three was decommissioned in 1976 due to poor design and operational issues. The other two licenses were set to expire in 2013, 2015. Those two had a history of issues dating back from 2000. Any shot at getting their licenses extended was blown to hell when the operator, Entergy, refused to build a new closed-cycle cooling towers system at the cost of $1 bil. That was key due to environmental impacts on the Hudson River from the water taken, and returned to it. 
The licenses for nuclear power plants last 40 years. 

 

12 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Exactly.  The problem is that utilities are protected, because we need water and electricity to meet our basic needs.  These utilities are "regulated", in other words protected, to insure there will always be enough supply for our demand.  Therefore, capitalism cannot be counted on to keep costs down, since they are exempt from competition.  So, a power company has to pay for their overhead, and are guaranteed to make a profit.  Every time we buy a more energy efficient refrigerator, HVAC, washer and dryer and utilize led lights, the rates must increase to offset losses in revenue.  Sort of counter intuitive.  Doesn't matter if the energy sources are renewable or not. The only way to beat the system is to totally go off the grid, which I don't think is possible yet, unless you own a ranch with enough space to supply enough wind, solar and geothermal power and store it?

In NYC, LI, and at least in my area of NJ, you can buy your power from 3rd party providers. Example buy your power from Superelectric company rather than ConEd. Coned still provides the transmission of the power. This is because you cannot have a million different transmission lines from each power company. Same goes for gas service.  
ConEd in particular has had ever increasing profits the last few years. A lot of that money is given back to shareholders with dividends. Coned pays $3.40 a share, and that rate has consistently gone up year over year. 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

ugh I was going to do some landscaping work in my yard tomorrow lol.

when you said sea breeze minimal I thought you meant it was going to be hot lol

From what I looked at, it's going to rain both Thursday and Friday and cloudy Saturday, so no sunshine after today until Sunday?

 

When the sea breeze is minimal and we have a another focusing mechanism we can get heavy rain right to the beaches. Weekend looks like a perfect summer weekend.

[Wannabehippie]

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

When the sea breeze is minimal and we have a another focusing mechanism we can get heavy rain right to the beaches. Weekend looks like a perfect summer weekend.

Big thing I miss about living on Long Island, or even in Astoria, ease of access to the south shore beaches, in particular Jones Beach Field 6.

 

[Dark Star]

10 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Note I am a supporter of nuclear energy. 
Indian Point Nuclear Power plant was commissioned between 1962, and 1976. The oldest of the three was decommissioned in 1976 due to poor design and operational issues. The other two licenses were set to expire in 2013, 2015. Those two had a history of issues dating back from 2000. Any shot at getting their licenses extended was blown to hell when the operator, Entergy, refused to build a new closed-cycle cooling towers system at the cost of $1 bil. That was key due to environmental impacts on the Hudson River from the water taken, and returned to it. 
The licenses for nuclear power plants last 40 years. 

 

In NYC, LI, and at least in my area of NJ, you can buy your power from 3rd party providers. Example buy your power from Superelectric company rather than ConEd. Coned still provides the transmission of the power. This is because you cannot have a million different transmission lines from each power company. Same goes for gas service.  
ConEd in particular has had ever increasing profits the last few years. A lot of that money is given back to shareholders with dividends. Coned pays $3.40 a share, and that rate has consistently gone up year over year. 

 

I've been told, first hand, that the bulk of the increase is for the transmission.  Yes, we can buy our electricity from a 3rd party provider, which in theory does create competition, but doesn't solve the ever growing transmission costs.  I have a feeling we are paying for repairs done in other parts of the grid and or country during crisis time?