July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

I remember all the tropical systems that summer and the great waves. It was the last time we had a record breaking snowy winter with under 10 days reaching 90° at the warmest spots like EWR.

2004 was also impressive with that cool summer following the great snows and the record cold in January. 2009 was the last time with under 15 days reaching 90° and an above average snowy season and near 0° in January.

The there was the amazing Arctic outbreak in January 1985 and that cool summer. Also 1982 with the cool summer following the greatest April blizzard in over 100 years. We can add 1956 to the list for the great snowstorms in March.

If you notice we used to get these very cool summers right around the ones which were the warmest in those eras,  Such as 1956 after the 1955 summer. And 1967 following the summer of 1966. Then the 1982 summer right before the 1983 heat. Plus 1996 after the 1993 to 1995 summers with the heat index near 130°.

We also had the cooler 2004 summer between the warmth in 2002 and 2005. Then our warmest summer on record in 2010 after the cool 2009 summer.

So all we get these days is the summer heat like 2022 with nearly 50 days reaching 90  and an average summer like in 2023 with closer to 30 days.  But not another cool one like in 2009. So we lost a whole category of cool summers since the big step up in summer temperatures in 2010.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Lowest Number of 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1967	7	0
2	1996	9	0
3	1985	11	0
4	1982	12	0
-	1975	12	0
-	1946	12	0
5	2004	13	0
6	2009	14	0
-	1962	14	0
-	1956	14	0
-	1935	14	0

I noticed 1967 is on this list too, it came right after the historic 1966 summer!

This follows a common pattern:

we get a great hot summer (1966), then a great snowy winter (1966-67), followed by a dud summer (1967) followed by a dud winter (1967-68)

we get a great hot summer (1995), then a great snowy winter (1995-96), followed by a dud summer (1996) followed by a dud winter (1996-97)

 

[rclab]

42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I've been doing landscaping work this morning since 9 am and it's actually perfect weather for it.  

Liberty you’re amazing. You can post and landscape at the same time. Stay well, as always …..

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

looks done.  models show little to nothing and sun is starting to poke through in some places

Yep, should have watered the veggies. 

[bluewave]

Familiar summer pattern coming up of cool in the middle snd warm along the coasts. Hopefully, we can get some decent rains on Long Island. But the forecast looks to keep the heaviest just inland from the coast.
 

 

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

SNJ having a hell of a week, getting trained yet again this afternoon

amazing how well they do on a regular basis there...tons of storms and heavy downpours

[FPizz]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

amazing how well they do on a regular basis there...tons of storms and heavy downpours

Some flooding issues with that training

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, rclab said:

Liberty you’re amazing. You can post and landscape at the same time. Stay well, as always …..

I was outside for 4 hours lol, came in right around 1

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Familiar summer pattern coming up of cool in the middle snd warm along the coasts. Hopefully, we can get some decent rains on Long Island. But the forecast looks to keep the heaviest just inland from the coast.
 

 

it would be better to keep the humidity under control with nice dry weather.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

amazing how well they do on a regular basis there...tons of storms and heavy downpours

Same as central Jersey.

There's a reasonable reason why..... people who live near south facing coastlines almost always get less in the way of storms (I hate severe weather so I don't mind.)  East facing coastlines like NJ and MA have do much better with these kinds of storms.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Familiar summer pattern coming up of cool in the middle snd warm along the coasts. Hopefully, we can get some decent rains on Long Island. But the forecast looks to keep the heaviest just inland from the coast.
 

 

This doesn't look to be a high end hot summer on the scale of 1993 or 2010, but more like 1994, when we had early extreme heat and the rest of the summer was mediocre.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Familiar summer pattern coming up of cool in the middle snd warm along the coasts. Hopefully, we can get some decent rains on Long Island. But the forecast looks to keep the heaviest just inland from the coast.
 

 

Something I wanted to ask you about-- since we have broken the June 100 degree barrier here on the south shore / JFK the next barrier that needs to be broken is getting a 100 degree day in September.  It's never happened at JFK has it? And the last time that Central Park had a 100 degree day in September was on September 2, 1953? The only other time Central Park hit 100 degrees in September was September 8, 1881? A notable 99 was reached on September 11, 1983, which was our latest 99.  I don't think JFK has hit 99 in September (though they have hit 98 a few times.)  So our next goal should be to get to 100 in September.....

 

[donsutherland1]

Warm weather will continue through the weekend with temperatures reaching mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. 

Some of the guidance suggests that another round of heat could develop early next week with temperatures returning to the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s.

No widespread and sustained excessive heat appears likely through mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +10.16 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.239 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.9° (1.4° above normal). 

 

[SACRUS]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Something I wanted to ask you about-- since we have broken the June 100 degree barrier here on the south shore / JFK the next barrier that needs to be broken is getting a 100 degree day in September.  It's never happened at JFK has it? And the last time that Central Park had a 100 degree day in September was on September 2, 1953? The only other time Central Park hit 100 degrees in September was September 8, 1881? A notable 99 was reached on September 11, 1983, which was our latest 99.  I don't think JFK has hit 99 in September (though they have hit 98 a few times.)  So our next goal should be to get to 100 in September.....

 

JFK only hit 100 three times in August on record and never in september back to 1948.

[SACRUS]

 

JFK August 100's
 

8/20/1983: 100
8/26/1948: 100
8/26/1948: 101

 

99's in 2001, 2006.

[SACRUS]

 

JFK highest in Sep

 

9/10/1983 : 98

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

Some flooding issues with that training

 

ACY: 2.67 so far today and 2 day 3.29 so far t

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

amazing how well they do on a regular basis there...tons of storms and heavy downpours

South Jersey Alley for a reason. 

[Wannabehippie]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, and these so-called *fees* are being used to line their own pockets, this is what Hochul pointed out yesterday.  All those profits go right to their execs and shareholders.  They remind me of Big Pharma and their overpriced meds, both are vultures who feed off the underprivileged.

ConEd made 1.8 billion after taxes, dividends, etc last year. That money is supposed to go in to R&D, system upgrades etc. Instead they just bank it for stockbuy backs, dividends in the future.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

TEB: 86
EWR: 86
PHL: 86
New Brnswck: 85
NYC: 84
LGA: 83
TTN: 82
ISP: 82
JFK: 81
BLM: 79
ACY: 78.1 (2.71) 

[psv88]

81 today

[nycwinter]

looking forward to the end of next week when a legitimate cold front will hopefully pass through with a reduction in humidity at least one can hope..

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Something I wanted to ask you about-- since we have broken the June 100 degree barrier here on the south shore / JFK the next barrier that needs to be broken is getting a 100 degree day in September.  It's never happened at JFK has it? And the last time that Central Park had a 100 degree day in September was on September 2, 1953? The only other time Central Park hit 100 degrees in September was September 8, 1881? A notable 99 was reached on September 11, 1983, which was our latest 99.  I don't think JFK has hit 99 in September (though they have hit 98 a few times.)  So our next goal should be to get to 100 in September.....

 

It’s been tough to get 100° heat anywhere around the region in September. Could be related to the monsoonal type summers which have been increasing. Even August 100° heat isn’t as common anymore. 
 

June 100 days 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	3	0
2	2021	2	0
-	1994	2	0
-	1943	2	0
5	2024	1	0
-	2011	1	0
-	1993	1	0
-	1988	1	0
-	1966	1	0
-	1959	1	0
-	1953	1	0
-	1952	1	0
-	1934	1	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	1	0
-	2021	1	0
-	2017	1	0
-	2008	1	0
-	1952	1	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1

2025

2

0

 

July 100° days

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022	5	0
-	1949	5	0
3	2010	4	0
-	1993	4	0
-	1988	4	0
-	1966	4	0
7	2012	3	0
-	2011	3	0
-	1999	3	0
-	1955	3	0
11	2013	2	0
-	1997	2	0
-	1991	2	0
-	1980	2	0
-	1977	2	0
-	1954	2	0
-	1936	2	0
18	2025	1	21
-	2005	1	0
-	2002	1	0
-	1995	1	0
-	1986	1	0
-	1982	1	0
-	1963	1	0
-	1957	1	0
-	1937	1

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2013	2	0
-	2010	2	0
-	1999	2	0
-	1991	2	0
-	1966	2	0
-	1955	2	0
7	2019	1	0
-	2012	1	0
-	2011	1	0
-	2006	1	0
-	2005	1	0
-	1995	1	0
-	1957	1	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	3	0
-	1966	3	0
3	2011	2	0
-	1993	2	0
5	2013	1	0
-	1999	1	0
-	1983	1	0
-	1972	1	0
-	1963	1	0
-	1957	1	0

August 100° days

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1953	4	0
-	1944	4	0
3	2006	3	0
-	2001	3	0
-	1993	3	0
-	1949	3	0
7	2005	2	0
-	1948	2	0
9	2024	1	0
-	2022	1	0
-	2002	1	0
-	1973	1	0
-	1955	1	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2006	3	0
2	1955	2	0
-	1953	2	0
4	2005	1	0
-	2001	1	0
-	1948	1	0

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1948	2	0
2	1983	1	0

September 100° days

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1993	1	0
-	1953	1	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1

1953

1

0

 

 

[SnoSki14]

7 hours ago, nycwinter said:

looking forward to the end of next week when a legitimate cold front will hopefully pass through with a reduction in humidity at least one can hope..

I don't see that 

[Brian5671]

Days just get too short for 100 degree heat in Sept-close to 2 hrs less of sun by then vs June/July.

[bluewave]

Typical July brown lawn special coming up for Long Island as the WAR is just a little too strong. So the heaviest convection is focused more in the interior. It doesn’t take much with the heat this time of year for the drought monitor to introduce D0 conditions. Happens quite a bit on Long Island this time of year. But the heavy rains usually end up being more impressive from later in the summer into the fall.

[qg_omega]

There is no drought near DC or south Jersey lol, also has me abnormally dry and my grass is full of mushrooms from the rain

[Wannabehippie]

32 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

There is no drought near DC or south Jersey lol, also has me abnormally dry and my grass is full of mushrooms from the rain

Abnormally dry just means you are below normal rainfall levels to date. We have gotten rain recently, it doesn't mean we have recovered from a rainfall deficit.

 

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Abnormally dry just means you are below normal rainfall levels to date. We have gotten rain recently, it doesn't mean we have recovered from a rainfall deficit.

 

Yeah ewr is <3" since June 1st. Not a huge deficit but can start to have an effect especially this time of year 

[SACRUS]

 

 

80 / 70 clouds and some breaks.  Warm / humid mid - upper 80s today hottest/sunnier spots may touch 90 but not likely.  Simlar the next 2 days - this weekend , humid/warm mainly 80s with some stray hotter spots getting to 90.   Scattered storms focused Sat PM and Sun PM / Monday.  Hotter by the 15th and hot / humid and wetter overall into the beyond.

 

7/11 - 7/14 :  Warm - humid storms focus Sun late / Mon
7/15 - Beyond :  Hot/ Humid wetter overall

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

HIghs:

EWR: 100 (1988)
NYC: 98 (1988)
LGA: 98 (1988)
JFK: 98 (1966)
New Brnswck: 100 (1911)


Lows:

EWR: 58 (1934)
NYC: 57 (1898)
LGA: 62 (1945)
JFK: 61 (2002)
New Brnswck: 48 (1898)


Histprical:

1888 - Heavy snow reached almost to the base of Mt. Washington, NH, and the peaks of the Green Mountains were whitened. (David Ludlum)

 

1909: A deadly, estimated F2 tornado moved ESE across the Simpson Park section of Big Stone City in South Dakota. A bus was thrown from the road and the driver was killed. Two homes and several barns were destroyed. As the tornado crossed the foot of Big Stone Lake, it tore apart a railroad yard and killed four of the 26 Armenian laborers who were living in box cars at Ortonville, MN. 19 people were injured.  A tornado in the eastern St. Louis metropolitan area in Missouri began as a waterspout on the Mississippi River, drove a steamer into a bridge. On land, the tornado destroyed several barns and damaged 15 homes and two factories in the west part of Alton.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1912: Boston, MA recorded the end of the longest heat wave ever. It was 9 consecutive days with 90 °F or more.
(Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

 

1936: From July 5-17, temperatures exceeding 111 degrees in Manitoba and Ontario claimed 1,180 lives (mostly the elderly and infants) during the most prolonged, deadliest heat wave on record. Four hundred of these deaths were caused by people who drowned seeking refuge from the heat. In fact, the heat was so intense that steel rail lines and bridge girders twisted, sidewalks buckled, crops wilted and fruit baked on trees. Some record temperatures include; 112 degrees at St. Albans and Emerson, Manitoba, 111 at Brandon, Manitoba, 108 at Atikokan, Ontario, and Winnipeg, Manitoba.

1936: Unbelievable heat occurred across the Mid Atlantic states and the deadliest heat wave ever in parts of Canada. Ontario, Canada recorded its hottest temperature ever as the town of Atikokan hit 108°. On the same day in Manitoba, Winnipeg also reached 108°, the highest recorded temperature there since records began in the 1870's. St. Albans set Manitoba’s all-time record as they soared to 112°. In the United States, the all-time record high was set at Rochester, MN with 108°. Other daily record highs were set at Lincoln, NE: 109°; Peoria, IL: 108°; Rockford, IL: 108°, Grand Forks, ND: 108°, Decatur, IL: 107°, Moline, IL: 107°, Dubuque, IA: 107°, Minneapolis, MN: 106°, St. Cloud, MN: 106°, Fargo, ND: 106°, Springfield, IL: 105°, Champaign, IL: 105°, (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)


1939: All-time record highs of 110 °F and 106 °F were set for the city of Scottsbluff, NE and Kimball, NE, respectively, while Cheyenne, WY tied their all-time record high of 100°. Sioux City, IA also tied their all-time record high with 111°. Chadron, NE recorded its 3rd warmest day on record with a record high of 110°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1970: Seminole County in Oklahoma was hit hard by severe weather during the evening hours. Thunderstorm winds, estimated between 90 and 100 mph, damaged several buildings and blew out several plate-glass windows. Up to 5 inches of rain was also reported producing isolated flash flooding. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1980: Hot weather prevailed from the southeast to the Plains. Daily records included: Wichita, KS: 111°, Columbia, MO: 108°, Dodge City, KS: 108°, Topeka, KS: 107°, DFW Airport, TX: 107°, Macon, GA: 104°, Savannah, GA: 103°, Memphis, TN: 103°, Houston, TX: 103°, Columbus, GA: 102°, Paducah, KY: 102°, Atlanta, GA: 101°, Chattanooga, TN: 100 °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1981: Severe thunderstorms moved eastward across the entire length of South Dakota along the northern portion of the state. The storms produced large storms and an incredible amount of wind damage. Hail chicken egg size and up to 9 inches in circumference resulted in 100% crop loss in some areas. Many farmers reported that their crops were devastated by the storms winds and hail. Many trees were stripped of their leaves and large limbs were frequently lost. Winds exceeded 70 mph in many areas. Damage was so extensive that damage estimates were not even attempted. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1987 - Early morning thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Parkston, SD, and wind gusts to 87 mph at Buffalo, MN. Later in the day strong thunderstorm winds at Howard WI collapsed a circus tent injuring 44 persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southern Texas, with totals ranging up to 13 inches near Medina. Two men drowned when their pick-up truck was swept into the Guadalupe River, west of the town of Hunt. Ten cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Baltimore, MD, reported a record high reading of 102 degrees for the second day in a row. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Dakota to Indiana. Thunderstorms in North Dakota produced tennis ball size hail at Carson. Thunderstorms in Indiana produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Fort Wayne. Five cities in the Southern Atlantic Coast Region reported record high temperatures for the date, including Lakeland, FL, with a reading of 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1990: The costliest hailstorm in U.S. history occurred along the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies. (Denver, Colorado): Softball-sized hail destroyed roofs and cars, causing more than $600 million in total damage.


1992: An isolated thunderstorm developed over northeast Nebraska and moved into west-central Iowa. Windows were blown out at a store in downtown Onawa and high winds downed trees about 6 miles northwest of Onawa. Golf ball size hail also produced crop damage in Monona County and 3.50 inches of rain fell in a short period of time. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: The Great Midwest Flood continued as flood waters came close the Des Moines, IA water treatment plant, leaving the city's 250,000 residents without water for 12 days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1995: Winds gusted to 86 mph at Barstow, FL damaging several small airplanes and buildings.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
Shortly before 2 a.m. a house in Danielsville, PA, was hit twice by lightning. The chimney and roof were damaged and debris from the house damaged 3 cars. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)