July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

The first documented hurricane of 1842 severely affected coastal North Carolina from Wilmington to Currituck on July 12. Its center likely remained just east of Cape Hatteras as it washed away houses, drowned livestock, and wreaked havoc on shipping interests.[6] Nearly 30 ships ran aground near Ocracoke Inlet, and two unidentified vessels were wrecked on the shoals near Cape Hatteras with all hands lost; seven more men drowned while trying to salvage goods from the shipwrecks.[7] In late October, a message in a bottle was recovered at Bermuda with an account of the storm from the captain and first mate of the imperiled schooner Lexington, presumed lost at sea.[7] In total, around 40 ships were lost.[8] Although sparse records preclude an accurate death toll, the National Hurricane Center lists the cyclone among those that may have caused 25 or more fatalities.[9]

Described by one writer as "one of the worst in the history of coastal Carolina", the storm reportedly demolished all but one structure in the village of Portsmouth. Further inland, at Washington, damaging gale-force winds continued through July 13 and 14, and boats in the Albemarle Sound broke free of their moorings. Part of the Wilmington and Raleigh Railroad was washed out, preventing mail from reaching Charleston, South Carolina. After its close pass to North Carolina, the storm moved toward the northwest and made landfall near Norfolk, Virginia. Torrential rainfall affected the Mid-Atlantic states, with flooding reported along major rivers; the Schuylkill River in Philadelphia, for instance, rose 5 ft (1.5 m) over its banks.[7]

Message in a bottle, wow those were the days.....

Sounds like it had a coastal hugger kind of track? Lots of rain and surge up to Long Island on a southerly flow? No mention of wind speeds or lowest pressure though....

 

[SACRUS]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 

 

The high in Chicago was 106 on back to back days, Tony??

Highs:

EWR: 99 (2011)
NYC: 99 (1966)
LGA: 98 (1966)
JFK: 98 (2011)

I didn't know NYC had a 99 day in 1966, did they have 5 99+ days in 1966, matching the total from 1949? Of course the heat in 1966 was more intense since 4 of those days were 100+

 

 

 

Chicago was 106 On this date Jul 12 , 1995


NYC 1966

 

June 1966 New York City Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
June 1	70	52	0.00	0.0
June 2	74	52	0.00	0.0
June 3	84	56	0.00	0.0
June 4	90	63	0.00	0.0
June 5	95	71	0.00	0.0
June 6	90	72	0.00	0.0
June 7	86	70	0.36	0.0
June 8	87	70	0.00	0.0
June 9	86	69	0.00	0.0
June 10	82	58	0.60	0.0
June 11	72	53	0.00	0.0
June 12	70	57	0.02	0.0
June 13	74	58	0.00	0.0
June 14	89	68	0.01	0.0
June 15	86	67	0.00	0.0
June 16	85	68	0.00	0.0
June 17	83	63	0.14	0.0
June 18	84	63	0.00	0.0
June 19	77	65	0.00	0.0
June 20	88	64	0.00	0.0
June 21	93	68	0.00	0.0
June 22	86	68	0.00	0.0
June 23	94	65	0.00	0.0
June 24	94	75	0.00	0.0
June 25	88	64	0.00	0.0
June 26	82	64	0.00	0.0
June 27	101	70	0.00	0.0
June 28	93	76	0.00	0.0
June 29	92	73	0.04	0.0
June 30	94	73	0.00	0.0

July 1966 New York City Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
July 1	87	73	0.00	0.0
July 2	100	72	0.00	0.0
July 3	103	76	0.00	0.0
July 4	98	77	0.00	0.0
July 5	88	71	0.00	0.0
July 6	91	71	0.00	0.0
July 7	93	74	0.00	0.0
July 8	91	68	0.04	0.0
July 9	91	66	0.00	0.0
July 10	91	71	0.00	0.0
July 11	94	74	0.00	0.0
July 12	99	74	0.00	0.0
July 13	101	78	0.00	0.0
July 14	95	77	0.00	0.0
July 15	88	66	0.01	0.0
July 16	83	63	0.00	0.0
July 17	85	64	0.00	0.0
July 18	95	66	0.00	0.0
July 19	92	67	0.56	0.0
July 20	81	62	0.00	0.0
July 21	85	61	0.00	0.0
July 22	90	63	0.00	0.0
July 23	88	67	0.00	0.0
July 24	87	66	0.00	0.0
July 25	88	67	0.00	0.0
July 26	97	70	0.00	0.0
July 27	85	67	0.10	0.0
July 28	81	71	0.05	0.0
July 29	89	70	0.49	0.0
July 30	77	65	0.00	0.0
July 31	85	64	0.00	0.0

August 1966 New York City Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
August 1	93	65	0.00	0.0
August 2	82	71	0.14	0.0
August 3	84	62	0.00	0.0
August 4	82	63	0.00	0.0
August 5	88	67	0.00	0.0
August 6	92	65	0.00	0.0
August 7	88	70	0.00	0.0
August 8	87	68	0.00	0.0
August 9	76	70	0.00	0.0
August 10	90	71	0.00	0.0
August 11	92	71	0.43	0.0
August 12	86	70	0.03	0.0
August 13	85	61	0.00	0.0
August 14	83	61	0.28	0.0
August 15	77	61	0.21	0.0
August 16	78	69	0.63	0.0
August 17	87	68	0.00	0.0
August 18	91	66	0.00	0.0
August 19	94	72	0.00	0.0
August 20	86	70	0.00	0.0
August 21	83	66	0.00	0.0
August 22	87	71	0.00	0.0
August 23	85	73	0.15	0.0
August 24	81	65	0.00	0.0
August 25	80	64	0.00	0.0
August 26	85	65	0.00	0.0
August 27	89	65	0.00	0.0
August 28	88	70	0.00	0.0
August 29	87	71	0.00	0.0
August 30	92	73	0.00	0.0
August 31	91	72	0.02	0.0

September 1966 New York City Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
September 1	87	69	0.00	0.0
September 2	91	70	0.00	0.0

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Chicago was 106 On this date Jul 12 , 1995


NYC 1966

 

June 1966 New York City Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
June 1	70	52	0.00	0.0
June 2	74	52	0.00	0.0
June 3	84	56	0.00	0.0
June 4	90	63	0.00	0.0
June 5	95	71	0.00	0.0
June 6	90	72	0.00	0.0
June 7	86	70	0.36	0.0
June 8	87	70	0.00	0.0
June 9	86	69	0.00	0.0
June 10	82	58	0.60	0.0
June 11	72	53	0.00	0.0
June 12	70	57	0.02	0.0
June 13	74	58	0.00	0.0
June 14	89	68	0.01	0.0
June 15	86	67	0.00	0.0
June 16	85	68	0.00	0.0
June 17	83	63	0.14	0.0
June 18	84	63	0.00	0.0
June 19	77	65	0.00	0.0
June 20	88	64	0.00	0.0
June 21	93	68	0.00	0.0
June 22	86	68	0.00	0.0
June 23	94	65	0.00	0.0
June 24	94	75	0.00	0.0
June 25	88	64	0.00	0.0
June 26	82	64	0.00	0.0
June 27	101	70	0.00	0.0
June 28	93	76	0.00	0.0
June 29	92	73	0.04	0.0
June 30	94	73	0.00	0.0

July 1966 New York City Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
July 1	87	73	0.00	0.0
July 2	100	72	0.00	0.0
July 3	103	76	0.00	0.0
July 4	98	77	0.00	0.0
July 5	88	71	0.00	0.0
July 6	91	71	0.00	0.0
July 7	93	74	0.00	0.0
July 8	91	68	0.04	0.0
July 9	91	66	0.00	0.0
July 10	91	71	0.00	0.0
July 11	94	74	0.00	0.0
July 12	99	74	0.00	0.0
July 13	101	78	0.00	0.0
July 14	95	77	0.00	0.0
July 15	88	66	0.01	0.0
July 16	83	63	0.00	0.0
July 17	85	64	0.00	0.0
July 18	95	66	0.00	0.0
July 19	92	67	0.56	0.0
July 20	81	62	0.00	0.0
July 21	85	61	0.00	0.0
July 22	90	63	0.00	0.0
July 23	88	67	0.00	0.0
July 24	87	66	0.00	0.0
July 25	88	67	0.00	0.0
July 26	97	70	0.00	0.0
July 27	85	67	0.10	0.0
July 28	81	71	0.05	0.0
July 29	89	70	0.49	0.0
July 30	77	65	0.00	0.0
July 31	85	64	0.00	0.0

August 1966 New York City Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
August 1	93	65	0.00	0.0
August 2	82	71	0.14	0.0
August 3	84	62	0.00	0.0
August 4	82	63	0.00	0.0
August 5	88	67	0.00	0.0
August 6	92	65	0.00	0.0
August 7	88	70	0.00	0.0
August 8	87	68	0.00	0.0
August 9	76	70	0.00	0.0
August 10	90	71	0.00	0.0
August 11	92	71	0.43	0.0
August 12	86	70	0.03	0.0
August 13	85	61	0.00	0.0
August 14	83	61	0.28	0.0
August 15	77	61	0.21	0.0
August 16	78	69	0.63	0.0
August 17	87	68	0.00	0.0
August 18	91	66	0.00	0.0
August 19	94	72	0.00	0.0
August 20	86	70	0.00	0.0
August 21	83	66	0.00	0.0
August 22	87	71	0.00	0.0
August 23	85	73	0.15	0.0
August 24	81	65	0.00	0.0
August 25	80	64	0.00	0.0
August 26	85	65	0.00	0.0
August 27	89	65	0.00	0.0
August 28	88	70	0.00	0.0
August 29	87	71	0.00	0.0
August 30	92	73	0.00	0.0
August 31	91	72	0.02	0.0

September 1966 New York City Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
September 1	87	69	0.00	0.0
September 2	91	70	0.00	0.0

excellent thanks Tony, so 5 99+ days just like 1949, but in 1949 only 2 of those days were 100+ in 1966 4 of those days were 100+ (in three separate heatwaves wow).

JFK had three consecutive 100+ days in July, including on the 4th, on the day NYC peaked at 98.

In 1966, 35 total 90+ days at NYC Tony? That's very high (around the same as 1944)!!

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Why are they even building coal plants then? This isn't 1960.  

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

The mostly sunny thing isn’t working out 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought the strongest WAR happens when there isn't a sea breeze? Take 1993 for example.  The WAR was so strong, it came inland over NC and gave us a westerly flow for most of the summer.

In recent summers, the WAR has been less strong, allowing more fronts to get hung up here and being further offshore thus causing the onshore flow.  In the 90s those fronts would be hung up over the Midwest instead of here, that's why you got the Great Flood of 1993, the WAR was so strong it kept the fronts a thousand miles away from us and enveloped us in a westerly flow all summer long

 

When the WAR pushes into New England from the east we get more high pressure there leading to onshore flow here. Back in the old days we would get a strong ridge over the Great Lakes leading to more westerly flow here. But these days that area gets more troughs over the summer. 

 

[FPizz]

28 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

The mostly sunny thing isn’t working out 

Wow a weather post. Same here, about 20% sun.  Warm though, 87/72.  

[Sundog]

58 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

I'm not sure what this has to do with what I said. 

What incentive does China have today to keep building so many coal plants when there are so many other alternatives that weren't available in years past?

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'm not sure what this has to do with what I said. 

What incentive does China have today to keep building so many coal plants when there are so many other alternatives that weren't available in years past?

[Brian5671]

partly sunny here all day...84

[Wannabehippie]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thorium reactors have a bright future too.

Thorium, molten salt, lead cooled. sodium cooled, gas cooled, Gen IV reactors all are supposed to produce the more energy with the same amount of fuel as existing reactors. Some can even be re-fueled while still online. Waste products decay in centuries, rather than thousands of years. So far only China has brought 1 Gen IV reactor online.

 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

Not sure how you continually posting per capita emissions and historic emissions helps anything. 

The US can disappear tomorrow and 90% of the problem will still be there. 

Good luck on solving that 90%. 

 

[TWCCraig]

Down to 75

Actually a very light mist, crummy day. Unfortunately tomorrow looks the same

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Not sure how you continually posting per capita emissions and historic emissions helps anything. 

The US can disappear tomorrow and 90% of the problem will still be there. 

Good luck on solving that 90%. 

 

how many cars do you own

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Down to 75

Actually a very light mist, crummy day. Unfortunately tomorrow looks the same

Looks like those forecasts for sunshine didn't work out.

The plague of the stalled front because the Bermuda High isn't strong enough to keep the fronts well to our west.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Wow a weather post. Same here, about 20% sun.  Warm though, 87/72.  

Some of us make a large mix and variety of posts, from weather to climate to sports etc lol-- it keeps things interesting

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

When the WAR pushes into New England from the east we get more high pressure there leading to onshore flow here. Back in the old days we would get a strong ridge over the Great Lakes leading to more westerly flow here. But these days that area gets more troughs over the summer. 

 

But when we had heatwaves back in years like 1993 and 1999 that lasted 7-11 days, was that because the Bermuda high was strong enough to hold back fronts to our west instead of letting them stall over the area leading to all this cloudy weather, Chris?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

The mostly sunny thing isn’t working out 

Definitely not.

The old forecast of cloudy Saturday and partly sunny Sunday might work out after all.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

Interesting to see Malaysia way up on this list.  Didn't know they had a high fossil fuel consumption, I do know about their deforestation efforts and corrupt palm oil plantations (similar to Indonesia.)

 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Not sure how you continually posting per capita emissions and historic emissions helps anything. 

The US can disappear tomorrow and 90% of the problem will still be there. 

Good luck on solving that 90%. 

 

It's definitely a human nature thing not a US vs rest of the world thing.

The fossil fuel cartels are large multinational corporations and they hold sway over most of the world's governments -- this is why you see their lobbyists even at UN climate conventions.

If you want to see real decisive action against climate change (or against anything else that is a problem in society today), you need to ban corporate lobbyists completely just like we did with big tobacco lobbyists.  And corporate lobbying is a global problem that extends far beyond this country.

I realized that when I started reading stories coming out of the UK about judges imprisoning peaceful climate change activists, including college professors and climate scientists at the behest of fossil fuel companies.  The judges put these scientists and professors in prison even before they went on trial (if there even was a trial) as a way to silence them from protesting.  They were released in a few days to a few weeks, kept in prison long enough to try to teach them a lesson not to protest.

[TWCCraig]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like those forecasts for sunshine didn't work out.

The plague of the stalled front because the Bermuda High isn't strong enough to keep the fronts well to our west.

 

Most models I was looking at had us partly to mostly cloudy for today and tomorrow, between 50-90% cloud cover approximately, so not far off. I saw some TV forecasts that didn't even mention the cloud cover though.

We are stuck in this perpetually moist airmass with dews constantly near 70 and above. It seems lows dont even drop into the 60s anymore in July here because it's so humid. Guess we should be thankful, there's so many fires burning right now in Canada that if we got a cool dry Canadian airmass right now our skies would still be gray lol

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But when we had heatwaves back in years like 1993 and 1999 that lasted 7-11 days, was that because the Bermuda high was strong enough to hold back fronts to our west instead of letting them stall over the area leading to all this cloudy weather, Chris?

Our longest heatwave around the area was 20 days from 7-29-88 to 8-17-88 at Newark. The ridge axis and strongest 500mb height anomaly was centered over the Great Lakes. At the surface the Bermuda high was pressed to our south with lower pressure over New England keeping the flow more SW. 

 

 

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1988-07-29	95
1988-07-30	99
1988-07-31	90
1988-08-01	91
1988-08-02	94
1988-08-03	93
1988-08-04	92
1988-08-05	90
1988-08-06	90
1988-08-07	93
1988-08-08	90
1988-08-09	92
1988-08-10	93
1988-08-11	97
1988-08-12	95
1988-08-13	98
1988-08-14	98
1988-08-15	99
1988-08-16	92
1988-08-17	90

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, TWCCraig said:

Most models I was looking at had us partly to mostly cloudy for today and tomorrow, between 50-90% cloud cover approximately, so not far off. I saw some TV forecasts that didn't even mention the cloud cover though.

We are stuck in this perpetually moist airmass with dews constantly near 70 and above. It seems lows dont even drop into the 60s anymore in July here because it's so humid. Guess we should be thankful, there's so many fires burning right now in Canada that if we got a cool dry Canadian airmass right now our skies would still be gray lol

Yep, like a few years ago.

This July is probably going to turn out only slightly above normal, not a bakeoff July like some of the historic summers we've had.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our longest heatwave around the area was 20 days from 7-29-88 to 8-17-88 at Newark. The ridge axis and strongest 500mb height anomaly was centered over the Great Lakes. At the surface the Bermuda high was pressed to our south with lower pressure over New England keeping the flow more SW. 

 

 

Just referring to New York City and Long Island since I remember 1988 where the heat was focused west of us.  We never hit 100 here in 1988 and we had shorter heatwaves that were interrupted by a lot of back door fronts.  1988 is not listed on the NYC longest heatwaves page nor is it high up on the 90+ day summer list, but years like 1993, 1999 and 2002 are prominently featured.

As I remember it, 1993 specifically had a heat ridge that held up fronts in the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley, which is why that area had historic flooding while we had endless summer.

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Just referring to New York City and Long Island since I remember 1988 where the heat was focused west of us.  We never hit 100 here in 1988 and we had shorter heatwaves that were interrupted by a lot of back door fronts.  1988 is not listed on the NYC longest heatwaves page, but years like 1993, 1999 and 2002 are prominently featured.

As I remember it, 1993 specifically had a heat ridge that held up fronts in the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley, which is why that area had historic flooding while we had endless summer.

 

The ridge during that 10 day heatwave in Central Park from 7-7-93 to 7-16-93 was centered in SE PA. Lower heights and pressures over New England kept the flow W to SW here. So no onshore flow influence back then like we are getting now.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge during that 10 day heatwave in Central Park from 7-7-93 to 7-16-93 was centered in SE PA. Lower heights and pressures over New England kept the flow W to SW here. So no onshore flow influence back then like we are getting now.

 

Wow that's absolutely amazing Chris... is that the Bermuda High centered over SE PA? That's the equivalent of Sandy making landfall in S NJ, you rarely if ever see a track and position like that.

Did the same thing happen in 1999 and 2002 during the very long heatwaves in those years too?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge during that 10 day heatwave in Central Park from 7-7-93 to 7-16-93 was centered in SE PA. Lower heights and pressures over New England kept the flow W to SW here. So no onshore flow influence back then like we are getting now.

 

This was the most intense and extreme heatwave I've ever experienced, both extreme in duration and intense in how long peak triple digit heat lasted.  Most of the posters who didn't experience 1993 have no idea what kind of heat we had back then and have never experienced anything like it in our area!

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This was the most intense and extreme heatwave I've ever experienced, both extreme in duration and intense in how long peak triple digit heat lasted.  Most of the posters who didn't experience 1993 have no idea what kind of heat we had back then and have never experienced anything like it in our area!

The only thing I can realistically compare it to is the December 1992 noreaster in terms of how intense it was and how long it lasted.  The 1990s were chock full of extreme weather the likes of which we have not experienced since!

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow that's absolutely amazing Chris... is that the Bermuda High centered over SE PA? That's the equivalent of Sandy making landfall in S NJ, you rarely if ever see a track and position like that.

Did the same thing happen in 1999 and 2002 during the very long heatwaves in those years too?

 

Yeah, the ridge axis was to our west. This is why JFK only has around half as many 90° days as NJ this year so far. The warm spots in NJ may very well top 40 days reaching 90° again this year. While the number to the east of NYC with the sea breeze will be much lower. The ridge axis has been located to the east of New England again this summer.

 

 

 

90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 11, 2025 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area	ThreadEx	18
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT	WBAN	18
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	18
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	16
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	16
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	16
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	16
HARRISON	COOP	16
PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO	COOP	14

 

90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 11, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	13
New York-LGA Area	ThreadEx	13
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	11
PORT JERVIS	COOP	10
SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW	COOP	10
POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10
STONYKILL NEW YORK	RAWS	10
Poughkeepsie Area	ThreadEx	10
ST. JAMES	COOP	10
DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	9
JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	9
New York-Kennedy Airport Area	ThreadEx	9
SARA NEW YORK	RAWS	9
VICTOR 2NW	COOP	8
LANSING MANOR	COOP	8
WEBSTER 2 NE	COOP	8
GANG MILLS NEW YORK	RAWS	8
SHERBURNE NEW YORK	RAWS	8
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	7
HUDSON CORRECTIONAL FACILITY	COOP	7
DANSVILLE	COOP	7
SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP	WBAN	7
WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	7
SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	7
Islip Area	ThreadEx	7
Syracuse Area	ThreadEx	7
FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	6
NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	6
SHRUB OAK	COOP	6
MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	6

 

 

[Dark Star]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

their per capita emissions are lower than ours

China has most of our manufacturing with a lot less of emissions control.