June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[Sundog]

Tons of water from this storm

[donsutherland1]

A sustained period of above normal temperatures is now underway. Although temperatures will be somewhat cooler than they were today tomorrow and Saturday, the heat will likely come roaring back on Sunday.

Excessive heat is likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. There remains some uncertainty about the magnitude of the heat. The ECMWF is showing potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was -13.36 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.764 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7° (1.7° above normal). 

 

[winterwarlock]

Nothing here yet

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

Nothing here yet

It’s over now

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just closed the beach for lighting at jones. Meanwhile it’s sunny and will not rain a drop.

South Jersey severe looks primed and ready with the line in PA.

[ag3]

Great storm here in Whitestone, Queens. Torrential rain, very gusty winds, tons of lightning and thunder.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Just closed the beach for lighting at jones. Meanwhile it’s sunny and will not rain a drop.

South Jersey severe looks primed and ready with the line in PA.

South Jersey Alley will produce as always. Here it's getting dark to the west. We'll see if it clips me or goes just to my north. 

[SACRUS]

Storms building to SW into NJ

 

[Nibor]

[jm1220]

Wow, pretty impressive. Torrential rain and strong gusts. Wouldn't surprise me if some trees are down. 

[uofmiami]

Gusted to 34mph & got .31 of rain in N Syosset. 

[bkviking]

Severe T Storm warning for Port Jefferson with cell coming in. Nice CTG lightning . Nicely developing shelf cloud also … 

[psv88]

Just got CRUSHED in commack. Crazy winds, rain, lightning. Everything. Definitely severe 

[wdrag]

I will start a thread on what may be the hottest stretch of our summer (KEWR Mean temp and 2-3  100 degree days interior between Sun-Wed), with 1-2 days of 100 NYC in this period.

Beyond, this heat wave, it (90 or higher) possibly lasts through all of June and another surge of 100+ heat 28-30.   I'll concentrate on the Sun-Wed period for a start. 

Thread may not post til after 10P.  

90 not likely tomorrow in the interior but I think a decent chance of starting Saturday afternoon. 

 

[Cfa]

CG lightning to the west, cloudy and breezy now with rolling thunder, will likely miss me to the north though.

[winterwarlock]

Big storms heading  my way per radar..they are quick moving

[Sundog]

18z GFS now has low 100s in NYC on Sunday. 

Shit model 

[jm1220]

Some scattered outages along the N Shore affecting a few thousand customers so far.

[WeatherGeek2025]

50 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Storms building to SW into NJ

 

any potential for a tornado there in the purple?

[steve392]

Nice Lil cell blowing up out over Atlantic 

 

[ForestHillWx]

The first storm snapped a decent sized oak limb in Bedminster; closed the road off 206 north and knocked out lights at a few intersections. 

[FPizz]

Pouring

[SI Mailman]

Looks like I’ll finally be getting in on the action with that cell moving NE through central jersey

[MANDA]

9 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The first storm snaponeped a decent sized oak limb in Bedminster; closed the road off 206 north and knocked out lights at a few intersections. 

Had not a thing here.  One storm went to my NW and one slid south.  Not that I need or want anymore rain right now.

[FPizz]

Crazy crazy rain wow

[Euripides]

Wicked wind and rain with this one.

Shocked we still have power.

[FPizz]

Half inch of rain in like 10 min, down to drizzle now

[dmillz25]

That thing is bowing out heading to Brooklyn 

[Stormlover74]

Quite windy

[psv88]

Just rained lightly at home on the south side of town, but still a lot of lightning close by. North side got crushed, power out