Weather Will Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago WB 12Z FV3....anyone know how its accuracy compares to the WB 12z 3K NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago .23" away from an 11" month at the nearest PWS to me (probably an inch for MBY). Can we make it tomorrow? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Frederick does a good job of site location and crowning the middle of the field. 2nd and 3rd grade playoffs start this Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago So nice out right now, partly sunny and 75 Yikes at LWX talking about tomorrow night's rain: "Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely in the favored zone of forcing, but CAMs suggest localized totals over 4 inches are possible." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 333 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri May 30 2025 - 12Z Sat May 31 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC... ...20Z Update... Continued increases in the forecast rainfall from the 12Z guidance suite, sufficient instability for storms, ample upper level forcing from a strong shortwave that rapidly turns negatively tilted, and soil sensitivity due to recent heavy rainfall have all worked to increase the concern for flash flooding across portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Friday and Friday night. Generally, the convection will track from west to east...so the portion of the Slight in Kentucky really focuses on Friday morning, whereas the portion in northern New Jersey is primarily focused on after midnight Friday night. Soil sensitivity to flash flooding is high as soil moisture levels remain well above the normal for this time of year due to rain as recently as yesterday, and not including any shower and isolated thunderstorm activity probable around the DMV region the afternoon and this evening. Further, possible repeating rounds of heavy rain on Friday interacting with the terrain and full rivers should cause onset of flash flooding to occur sooner...closer to the rainfall start time...in these areas, making any potential flooding more hazardous in West Virginia. Further east, urban concerns will increase the potential impacts from flash flooding. The storms will also occur in the afternoon and evening, during the diurnal warmest time of day, which will add more instability for the storms to feed on. Given all of the above, have introduced a higher end Slight from eastern Kentucky to the Baltimore metro. The 12Z HREF suite shows an over 50% chance of exceeding 6-hour FFGs across the DMV. The Slight Risk area was expanded northeast across the Philadelphia Metro and much of northern New Jersey with this update. While the storms will impact this region Friday evening and into the overnight, here too recent heavy rainfall will make flash flooding more common compared to if the soils were dry. By Friday evening a coastal low will be rapidly forming, and so instability will be waning as the precipitation shield evolves into more of a comma shape, with the heaviest rains along the Delaware River on the cold/more stable side of the low. Nevertheless, remnant instability and long duration of rainfall will still cause widely scattered instances of flash flooding. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago WB 18Z 3K NAM and 10K RDPS came North 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Looks like some scattered storms may fire late tonight/early AM tomorrow along and east of I-95 from SW to NE. Most guidance depicts this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago I’m on the EYO board and we’ve had this discussion/argument with Rec and Parks for ages. I think we’re finally close to getting approval to let coaches work on fields to get them playable. They’ve refused up until now and they don’t work particularly hard to get them playable. In Loudoun…if someone tears up on a field they close it. Zero effort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 28 minutes ago, Ji said: In Loudoun…if someone tears up on a field they close it. Zero effort Yep, exactly. Last month they kicked my son's team off the field in the middle of a game. Apparently the decision to close the park happened late. Instead of just letting the little kids finish their soccer game, they insisted everyone leave the field immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z 3K NAM and 10K RDPS came North Good grief NAM -- that would be a proper mess for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 43 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Good grief NAM -- that would be a proper mess for DC I don’t need that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 333 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri May 30 2025 - 12Z Sat May 31 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC... ...20Z Update... Continued increases in the forecast rainfall from the 12Z guidance suite, sufficient instability for storms, ample upper level forcing from a strong shortwave that rapidly turns negatively tilted, and soil sensitivity due to recent heavy rainfall have all worked to increase the concern for flash flooding across portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Friday and Friday night. Generally, the convection will track from west to east...so the portion of the Slight in Kentucky really focuses on Friday morning, whereas the portion in northern New Jersey is primarily focused on after midnight Friday night. Soil sensitivity to flash flooding is high as soil moisture levels remain well above the normal for this time of year due to rain as recently as yesterday, and not including any shower and isolated thunderstorm activity probable around the DMV region the afternoon and this evening. Further, possible repeating rounds of heavy rain on Friday interacting with the terrain and full rivers should cause onset of flash flooding to occur sooner...closer to the rainfall start time...in these areas, making any potential flooding more hazardous in West Virginia. Further east, urban concerns will increase the potential impacts from flash flooding. The storms will also occur in the afternoon and evening, during the diurnal warmest time of day, which will add more instability for the storms to feed on. Given all of the above, have introduced a higher end Slight from eastern Kentucky to the Baltimore metro. The 12Z HREF suite shows an over 50% chance of exceeding 6-hour FFGs across the DMV. The Slight Risk area was expanded northeast across the Philadelphia Metro and much of northern New Jersey with this update. While the storms will impact this region Friday evening and into the overnight, here too recent heavy rainfall will make flash flooding more common compared to if the soils were dry. By Friday evening a coastal low will be rapidly forming, and so instability will be waning as the precipitation shield evolves into more of a comma shape, with the heaviest rains along the Delaware River on the cold/more stable side of the low. Nevertheless, remnant instability and long duration of rainfall will still cause widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Nice forecast update by my colleague. I had the Slight Risk through Eastern KY, WV, and Central MD this morning. With the latest CAMs, Philly got on board. They wanted to see one more suite before wanting the higher risk, so I backed off the Philly area on initial collaboration. Looks like tomorrow will bring the goods 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Flood Watch up for metro areas down to CHO for tomorrow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Details on the Flood Watch flagged above: District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 831 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and St. Marys, and Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northwest Prince William, Orange, Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...From Friday evening through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - As a wavy slow moving frontal system tracks across the area, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. While initially posing a severe weather threat, a shift to a slow moving complex of moderate to heavy rain unfolds into the evening and night. Storm totals could reach 2 to 3 inches, locally nearing 4 inches in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Flood Watch up for metro areas down to CHO for tomorrow Interesting that it doesn't include the highlands. I'm over 9 inches for the month and streams are still quite swollen. Must think our QPF won't amount to a whole lot (altho @MillvilleWx and his crew still include us in the slight risk for excessive rainfall). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago WB 0Z HRRR...most of the rain falls later afternoon/overnight Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago WB 0Z 3K NAM continues to shift NW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago So my week total is 2.27 with a monthly total of 9.47. With the potential of the rains tomorrow night will most likely go over 10” for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 hours ago, katabatic said: Interesting that it doesn't include the highlands. I'm over 9 inches for the month and streams are still quite swollen. Must think our QPF won't amount to a whole lot (altho @MillvilleWx and his crew still include us in the slight risk for excessive rainfall). It does now for most Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 317 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 .A wavy slow moving frontal system will meander about the area on Friday evening into the night. Anomalous moisture coupled with high rainfall rates should increase the risk of flash flooding over portions of this watch area. MDZ003-VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-301530- /O.EXA.KLWX.FA.A.0008.250530T2300Z-250531T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Washington-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren- Clarke-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 317 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, including the following area, Washington, Virginia, including the following areas, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Clarke, Eastern Highland, Frederick VA, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Warren and Western Highland, and West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Eastern Pendleton, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western Grant, Western Mineral and Western Pendleton. * WHEN...From this evening through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - As a slow-moving frontal system tracks across the area, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. While initially posing a severe weather threat, a shift to a slow moving complex of moderate to heavy rain unfolds into the evening and night. Storm totals could reach 2 to 3 inches, locally nearing 4 inches in spots. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 317 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 .A wavy slow moving frontal system will meander about the area on Friday evening into the night. Anomalous moisture coupled with high rainfall rates should increase the risk of flash flooding over portions of this watch area. DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ036>040-050-051- 053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527-301530- /O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0008.250530T2300Z-250531T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 317 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and St. Marys, and Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northwest Prince William, Orange, Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...From this evening through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - As a slow-moving frontal system tracks across the area, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. While initially posing a severe weather threat, a shift to a slow moving complex of moderate to heavy rain unfolds into the evening and night. Storm totals could reach 2 to 3 inches, locally nearing 4 inches in spots. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Also, zones now say sunny and hot with highs around 90 for next Wednesday and Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago It's been pouring early this morning here in the lowlands. Getting primed for the flooding tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 hours ago, CAPE said: Looks like some scattered storms may fire late tonight/early AM tomorrow along and east of I-95 from SW to NE. Most guidance depicts this. Yep, getting hit currently. Tropical downpour, extremely heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago It rained between midnight and 5 in hunt valley area I think / there’s puddles in the parking lots over here by the light rail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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