2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[ORH_wxman]

We'll want to eradicate those lower heights near AK as we get deeper into November....lots of low heights up there over the first half or 2/3rds of November on the ensembles and weeklies. 

 

Euro weeklies have been insistent on pushing them out by late November, which would be a good sing for a fast start, but always watch for the delayed pattern shift. Sometimes it's rushed. 

[CoastalWx]

A lot of energy guys more bullish after first week of December. Seem to think weeklies aren’t out to lunch. Hopefully they’re right. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Well, I am going to Florida 12/13 - 12/20.  So something big is nearly assured in that time frame.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

A lot of energy guys more bullish after first week of December. Seem to think weeklies aren’t out to lunch. Hopefully they’re right. 

I don't, either. My mind has been made up for months, but as in mathamtics, time to show the work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England. 

I've been wating with baited breath for a 1917 redux ever since the Titanic sank.

[George001]

On 11/3/2025 at 6:56 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We'll want to eradicate those lower heights near AK as we get deeper into November....lots of low heights up there over the first half or 2/3rds of November on the ensembles and weeklies. 

 

Euro weeklies have been insistent on pushing them out by late November, which would be a good sing for a fast start, but always watch for the delayed pattern shift. Sometimes it's rushed. 

I am very excited for this winter. I do not except really any snow until the second half of December but strongly believe that January will be a burial.

[MJO812]

Joe cioffi show is on YouTube   DT is very bullish for a wild December and January .

[ORH_wxman]

Seems like most long range guidance is very bullish on a lot of Atlantic blocking going into December, so as long as we can at least get a serviceable Pacific, it could be a favorable setup. 

[Snowcrazed71]

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1HDmZR82yz/

Another very interesting read for this upcoming winter for the Northeast. 

[WinterWolf]

Oh boy, Dr Judah Cohen…Scooter and that guy don’t mix to well.  

[SnoSki14]

On 11/6/2025 at 9:27 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like most long range guidance is very bullish on a lot of Atlantic blocking going into December, so as long as we can at least get a serviceable Pacific, it could be a favorable setup. 

The Pacific jet from hell needs to abate or it'll be more of the same garbage 

[bristolri_wx]

15 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh boy, Dr Judah Cohen…Scooter and that guy don’t mix to well.  

Some of theory has merit. It’s however just one factor among many.

For those that like snow I personally still feel confident that for most of New England that this season will be better than the last few. Doesn’t mean it will be much better. The long range models continue to have a favorable pattern at 500mb look overall for the winter months. We just need some luck, which has also been lacking last new winters.

[UnitedWx]

On 11/4/2025 at 7:32 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've been wating with baited breath for a 1917 redux ever since the Titanic sank.

And I've been waiting for 1888 since Grover Cleveland was resident... who gets theirs first?

[CoastalWx]

On 11/8/2025 at 1:41 PM, bristolri_wx said:

Some of theory has merit. It’s however just one factor among many.

For those that like snow I personally still feel confident that for most of New England that this season will be better than the last few. Doesn’t mean it will be much better. The long range models continue to have a favorable pattern at 500mb look overall for the winter months. We just need some luck, which has also been lacking last new winters.

I think it may have some merit. However, I can’t get past him claiming to be right for the wrong reasons back in the 2010s. Just lost all respect. 

[WinterWolf]

On 11/4/2025 at 7:32 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've been wating with bated breath for a 1917 redux ever since the Titanic sank.

Lol..but the titanic sank before 1917. Or maybe that’s just it…no rhyme or reason. 

[brooklynwx99]

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec

trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec

trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

yeah, i posted about this over int the novie thread just this morning, too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 9/9/2025 at 8:15 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

...  but, I've mentioned recently that I do feel low confident for an early loaded either winter, or perhaps pattern that's quasi winter oriented... latter November through Dec. Emphasis on low confidence.  ....

Starting to suspect I should have gone with greater confidence than low back whence.  heh

[Go Kart Mozart]

Oh no!   The Farmer's Almanac is going out of business!  What will we do for pinpoint accurate seasonal forecasts?

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, i posted about this over int the novie thread just this morning, too. 

I glanced at this quickly and thought you said movie thread.  I was excited until I realized it was Novie.

[FlashFreeze]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Oh no!   The Farmer's Almanac is going out of business!  What will we do for pinpoint accurate seasonal forecasts?

yes but thankfully The Old farmers almanac will still be going strong, the forecasts are for entertainment but the gardening tips and astronomical information is top-notch and they have some of the best calendars I’ve seen.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, FlashFreeze said:

yes but thankfully The Old farmers almanac will still be going strong, the forecasts are for entertainment but the gardening tips and astronomical information is top-notch and they have some of the best calendars I’ve seen.

I read a piece about the rivalry between the OFA and the FA being one of the longest literary rivalries going.  I've always been an OFA guy myself.  I wonder if they had a party celebrating the vanquishing of their rivals?

[dryslot]

16 hours ago, mreaves said:

I read a piece about the rivalry between the OFA and the FA being one of the longest literary rivalries going.  I've always been an OFA guy myself.  I wonder if they had a party celebrating the vanquishing of their rivals?

Next time Peter Geiger stops in, I'll have to ask him why they chose to no longer publish the Farmers Almanac.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Next time Peter Geiger stops in, I'll have to ask him why they chose to no longer publish the Farmers Almanac.

Not just being cynical/snarky … I can imagine that discussion going something like subscriptions are down. Maybe followed by a sentiment that hints at vexing, “nobody reads”

Writing as an industry is down. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not just being cynical/snarky … I can imagine that discussion going something like subscriptions are down. Maybe followed by a sentiment that hints at vexing, “nobody reads”

Writing as an industry is down. 

Correct, "Rags" as publication are known, Is definitely down, Very few still subscribe to a newspaper these days or others.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Next time Peter Geiger stops in, I'll have to ask him why they chose to no longer publish the Farmers Almanac.

It's shrunk down to about 1/3 the thickness of OFA and is free (except for the advertisers). 
Also, Dublin is a pretty town and a snow-catcher due to its elevation.  I'll let you comment on your town.  

[dendrite]

19 hours ago, mreaves said:

I read a piece about the rivalry between the OFA and the FA being one of the longest literary rivalries going.  I've always been an OFA guy myself.  I wonder if they had a party celebrating the vanquishing of their rivals?

[dendrite]

I used to collect the OFA every year back to the early 90s…no idea where they all are now. They were always a good read even if the forecasts were just entertainment. 

[MJO812]

 

[weatherwiz]

dendrite should ban you for posting that