2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[ORH_wxman]

We'll want to eradicate those lower heights near AK as we get deeper into November....lots of low heights up there over the first half or 2/3rds of November on the ensembles and weeklies. 

 

Euro weeklies have been insistent on pushing them out by late November, which would be a good sing for a fast start, but always watch for the delayed pattern shift. Sometimes it's rushed. 

[CoastalWx]

A lot of energy guys more bullish after first week of December. Seem to think weeklies aren’t out to lunch. Hopefully they’re right. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Well, I am going to Florida 12/13 - 12/20.  So something big is nearly assured in that time frame.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

A lot of energy guys more bullish after first week of December. Seem to think weeklies aren’t out to lunch. Hopefully they’re right. 

I don't, either. My mind has been made up for months, but as in mathamtics, time to show the work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England. 

I've been wating with baited breath for a 1917 redux ever since the Titanic sank.