nj2va Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 GGEM drops like 8” of snow in DC in 6 hours Monday AM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Just now, nj2va said: GGEM drops like 8” of snow in DC in 6 hours Monday AM. It’s a beaut. Not a threat of mixing in sight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 Yeah CMC is a hit. No temp issues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 CMC is a forum wide snowstorm with little or no mixing. I need to check its verification scores within 5 days, but it’s up there last time I looked. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 It’s colder which I like the 12z got DC to 32 this run only 29 at the warmest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 GFS seems to be on an island with its evolution. Will take a look at ensembles to see how they behave, the rest of the 00z suite looks absolutely nothing like it. I know this is a broken record, but people have to stop living and dying by every model run. You will drive yourself crazy. CMC coming in for a major beat down and follows the rest of the suite with its 5H evolution. Everything still looks fine by my eyes. Back to QPF forecasting for me. Will chime back in after 1230 12 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 WB 0Z Can 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 MECS-Y 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 CMC should take everyone off the ledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah CMC is a hit. No temp issues DC Jackpot. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 CMC has been performing better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: MECS-Y Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Canadian is cold smoke. And looks A LOT like the Euro. What an infuriating hobby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 2 minutes ago, Kleimax said: CMC should take everyone off the ledge if it wasn't the CMC, sure would. Just hoping the Euro holds and the GFS just had a shit the bed run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Can That’s wild! 1.5-2.3” of sleet. I’ve seen almost 4” when I lived in CT and it was absolutely epic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Hope the ukie follows the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 CMC looks like a plausible outcome, but that model….damn. If King is rock steady again we should be tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: He needs to stop with the yinz crap he's sending it to pitt Cmc gives my area a foot as well. Let's just shake on it now and everybody is happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 The Canadian is what I expect that kinda upstairs look to result in. There's still a formidable cold dome and associated confluence being driven into by the s/w. Yes its potent on these runs this evening, but it actually can result in a solid CAD wedge, which the GFS is notorious for not representing well. The Euro, GGEM, NAM, and Icon thermals were all pretty solid at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: if it wasn't the CMC, sure would. Just hoping the Euro holds and the GFS just had a shit the bed run The CMC scores quite a bit better than the GFS, so I’m not sure why you’re saying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 I know we are closing in on this event, but I’m curious to see what gfs ens show. 18z gefs had some real stinkers that looked a lot like 0z op honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: GFS is hammered and needs to go to bed. The Euro will hold serve. It has been consistent while the gfs has taken bullseye from North Carolina to southern PA. . GFS is not alone though. It has all the American suite plus the German's on its side. Euro and Canadians are on the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: That’s wild! 1.5-2.3” of sleet. I’ve seen almost 4” when I lived in CT and it was absolutely epic! President's Day 2 back in 2003 , measured half inch of snow followed by 7 inches of pure sleet down here - in western Albemarle county then... We didn't get the huge snow totals like just to our north got... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 As far as recent 1-5 day verification performance goes: 500mb heights: Euro is top, CMC very close second, GFS distant third 850mb temps: Euro top, CMC and GFS are about the same Did not check ensembles. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 I am liking this CMC trend. Temporarily lifting finger slightly off the panic button. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 1 minute ago, Jrlg1181 said: President's Day 2 back in 2003 , measured half inch of snow followed by 7 inches of pure sleet down here - in western Albemarle county then... We didn't get the huge snow totals like just to our north got... It was insane. And I actually dont think I would hate a sleet bomb with the cold that is coming. I could slide down my front yard every day to my car. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS is not alone though. It has all the American suite plus the German's on its side. Euro and Canadians are on the other side. WB 0Z ICON was south of GFS with heaviest snow band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: As far as recent 1-5 day verification performance goes: 500mb heights: Euro is top, CMC very close second, GFS distant third 850mb temps: Euro top, CMC and GFS are about the same Did not check ensembles. Hmm. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Too tired to grab the maps, but GEFS with a mild shift north. Makes sense that it follows the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: That’s wild! 1.5-2.3” of sleet. I’ve seen almost 4” when I lived in CT and it was absolutely epic! can't recall the exact event, but I remember a couple of inches of sleet in downtown baltimore around 2017ish. The texture of it was crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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